Week 7 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 17th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 7.

Game of the Week: #11 Texas 31 (5-1) @ #3 Oklahoma 37 (6-0)
Again, the Red River Shootout lives up to its billing with serious Big Twelve and national implications. Both teams enter the game undefeated, eyeing a BCS bid. Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray and the Sooners prevail by less than a touchdown, winning 80.3% of the time and by an average score of 37-31.

Week 7 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Gardner-Webb @ GA Tech954-38
Syracuse @ W. Virginia9512-41
Purdue @ Ohio State957-36
Tennessee @ Georgia9515-36
UAB @ Houston9513-37
Idaho @ Fresno State9518-37
Toledo @ Michigan9514-39
New Mexico State @ Nevada93.426-35
Minn. @ Illinois91.819-35
Nebraska @ Texas Tech90.219-36
Arizona St. @ USC88.514-36
Arkansas @ Auburn88.511-27
Troy @ Florida Atlantic88.512-34
Colorado @ Kansas85.224-40
Louisiana Tech @ Hawaii85.213-30
Oklahoma State @ Missouri80.334-39
Texas @ Oklahoma80.331-37
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State80.39-24
New Mexico @ Brigham Young75.416-30
Iowa State @ Baylor72.116-28
Penn State @ Wisconsin70.518-33
Utah State @ San Jose State70.512-23
Tulane @ UTEP62.320-29
Washington St. @ Oregon State62.317-24
Rutgers @ Cincinnati60.722-34
Iowa @ Indiana60.717-28
Temple @ C. Michigan60.723-31
S. Carolina @ Kentucky5914-22
UCLA @ Oregon55.719-26
Notre Dame @ North Carolina54.122-29
Ohio @ Kent St.34.426-20
LSU @ Florida32.832-25
LA-Monroe @ Arkansas St.32.827-23
UCF @ Miami (FL)31.122-17
W. Michigan @ Buffalo29.527-23
LA-Laf @ North Texas29.529-25
Clemson @ WF27.926-17
Tulsa @ SMU24.639-34
E. Michigan @ Army24.622-15
Bowling Green @ Akron2326-15
Michigan State @ Northwestern21.331-23
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois21.329-19
Utah @ Wyoming21.323-15
Boise State @ S. Miss1831-20
East Carolina @ Virginia16.424-15
Kansas State @ Texas A&M16.440-30
Ball State @ Western Kentucky16.434-22
Mid Tenn @ Fla. Int.14.827-16
Arizona @ Stanford13.131-17
TCU @ Colorado St.11.530-15
Louisville @ Memphis9.839-25
Air Force @ San Diego State533-13

Updated FBS Standings through Week 7

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson6 - 05 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech6 - 05 - 1
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 14 - 1
Atlantic CoastWF4 - 14 - 1
Atlantic CoastGA Tech4 - 24 - 2
Atlantic CoastMaryland4 - 24 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina5 - 14 - 2
Atlantic CoastDuke1 - 43 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State4 - 13 - 2
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)2 - 43 - 3
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 42 - 4
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 51 - 5
Big EastW. Virginia6 - 06 - 0
Big EastCincinnati5 - 15 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida5 - 15 - 1
Big EastPittsburgh4 - 14 - 1
Big EastConnecticut5 - 14 - 2
Big EastLouisville4 - 13 - 2
Big EastRutgers2 - 43 - 3
Big EastSyracuse2 - 42 - 4
Big TenOhio State7 - 07 - 0
Big TenIllinois5 - 15 - 1
Big TenIndiana6 - 05 - 1
Big TenIowa4 - 35 - 2
Big TenWisconsin5 - 14 - 2
Big TenMichigan State4 - 34 - 3
Big TenPenn State4 - 34 - 3
Big TenMichigan4 - 23 - 3
Big TenNorthwestern4 - 23 - 3
Big TenPurdue5 - 13 - 3
Big TenMinn.3 - 43 - 4
Big TwelveOklahoma6 - 06 - 0
Big TwelveKansas6 - 05 - 1
Big TwelveMissouri6 - 05 - 1
Big TwelveTexas Tech6 - 05 - 1
Big TwelveTexas5 - 15 - 1
Big TwelveKansas State4 - 24 - 2
Big TwelveOklahoma State5 - 14 - 2
Big TwelveNebraska3 - 33 - 3
Big TwelveTexas A&M2 - 43 - 3
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 42 - 4
Big TwelveColorado2 - 42 - 4
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 52 - 4
Conference USATulsa5 - 15 - 1
Conference USAEast Carolina3 - 34 - 2
Conference USAHouston5 - 14 - 2
Conference USAUCF5 - 14 - 2
Conference USARice3 - 33 - 3
Conference USAS. Miss4 - 23 - 3
Conference USAMemphis2 - 53 - 4
Conference USASMU3 - 43 - 4
Conference USAMarshall2 - 42 - 4
Conference USATulane1 - 52 - 4
Conference USAUTEP2 - 42 - 4
Conference USAUAB1 - 62 - 5
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame3 - 34 - 2
Independents (FBS)Navy2 - 43 - 3
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 52 - 4
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky2 - 52 - 5
Mid-AmericanBall State6 - 15 - 2
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan6 - 15 - 2
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 34 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green2 - 43 - 3
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan4 - 23 - 3
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)4 - 23 - 3
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 53 - 4
Mid-AmericanOhio2 - 53 - 4
Mid-AmericanTemple2 - 53 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo1 - 52 - 4
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois2 - 42 - 4
Mid-AmericanToledo2 - 42 - 4
Mid-AmericanAkron1 - 62 - 5
Mountain WestUtah6 - 16 - 1
Mountain WestBrigham Young6 - 05 - 1
Mountain WestTCU6 - 15 - 2
Mountain WestAir Force4 - 24 - 2
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 44 - 3
Mountain WestNew Mexico4 - 33 - 4
Mountain WestColorado St.2 - 42 - 4
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 52 - 4
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 42 - 4
Pacific-10USC4 - 14 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.4 - 24 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona5 - 14 - 2
Pacific-10California4 - 13 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon5 - 24 - 3
Pacific-10UCLA2 - 43 - 3
Pacific-10Washington St.2 - 53 - 4
Pacific-10Washington1 - 42 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 32 - 4
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 61 - 6
SoutheasternGeorgia6 - 06 - 0
SoutheasternLSU6 - 06 - 0
SoutheasternFlorida5 - 15 - 1
SoutheasternAuburn6 - 15 - 2
SoutheasternS. Carolina5 - 25 - 2
SoutheasternAlabama4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternKentucky4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternMississippi State3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternTennessee3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternArkansas2 - 42 - 4
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 61 - 5
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic4 - 24 - 2
Sun BeltArkansas St.3 - 33 - 3
Sun BeltLA-Monroe4 - 23 - 3
Sun BeltLA-Laf1 - 52 - 4
Sun BeltMid Tenn2 - 42 - 4
Sun BeltTroy1 - 52 - 4
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 51 - 5
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 60 - 6
Western AthleticBoise State4 - 14 - 1
Western AthleticFresno State5 - 14 - 2
Western AthleticNevada4 - 24 - 2
Western AthleticHawaii3 - 33 - 3
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 33 - 3
Western AthleticIdaho3 - 43 - 4
Western AthleticNew Mexico State1 - 42 - 3
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech1 - 41 - 4
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 61 - 5

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