# Week 11 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 11.

Game of the Week: TCU 21 (8-3) @ Utah 18 (8-2)
This is a great game, and it does mean something. Utah is going to be very good this season. We have the Utes in a very close game against Michigan at the Big House in Week 1 and then favored in every game after that. The Utes could very well be 9-0 going into this Thursday night home game with the whole country watching. It looks like they will have an extra loss after the game. TCU's defense is too much for Brian Johnson and Utah to handle, as the Horned Frogs win a tight one 65.6% of the time and by an average score of 21-18.

Week 11 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
San Diego State @ Brigham Young959-34
Tennessee-Martin @ Auburn953-39
Virginia @ WF959-29
Baylor @ Texas9517-36
Tulane @ Houston9515-33
California @ USC9514-33
Utah State @ Boise State958-33
Cincinnati @ W. Virginia9520-32
Stanford @ Oregon9510-34
Army @ Rice93.48-33
Marshall @ East Carolina93.416-35
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic91.814-38
Syracuse @ Rutgers86.917-37
Kansas State @ Missouri86.928-35
S. Miss @ UCF86.917-31
Wyoming @ Tennessee85.215-32
Alabama @ LSU83.614-30
Northern Illinois @ Ball State80.325-37
NC St. @ Duke78.714-28
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech73.831-32
GA Tech @ North Carolina72.120-31
Oregon State @ UCLA72.112-27
Memphis @ SMU63.923-32
Maryland @ Virginia Tech62.320-30
Louisville @ Pittsburgh55.729-36
Arkansas @ S. Carolina54.122-27
Bowling Green @ Ohio52.522-28
Western Kentucky @ Troy47.519-19
Louisiana Tech @ San Jose State4118-15
Penn State @ Iowa36.122-20
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo36.125-21
Toledo @ Akron36.125-20
Purdue @ Michigan State34.428-26
TCU @ Utah34.421-18
UTEP @ LA-Laf34.429-27
Notre Dame @ Boston College31.122-19
Hawaii @ New Mexico State29.526-21
Michigan @ Minn.27.938-27
LA-Monroe @ Mid Tenn27.927-22
Arizona @ Washington St.2330-21
Arizona St. @ Washington19.736-27
Wisconsin @ Indiana1831-20
New Mexico @ UNLV11.530-17
Arkansas St. @ Fla. Int.9.827-15
Clemson @ Florida State6.627-15
Illinois @ W. Michigan534-15
Ohio State @ Northwestern540-7
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M537-23
Florida @ Vanderbilt539-11
Georgia @ Kentucky539-9

Updated FBS Standings through Week 11

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson9 - 08 - 1
Atlantic CoastWF8 - 18 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech9 - 07 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State6 - 36 - 3
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 46 - 3
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina8 - 16 - 3
Atlantic CoastGA Tech5 - 55 - 5
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 54 - 5
Atlantic CoastDuke3 - 64 - 5
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)4 - 54 - 5
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 83 - 7
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 82 - 7
Big EastW. Virginia9 - 08 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida8 - 17 - 2
Big EastCincinnati6 - 36 - 3
Big EastLouisville6 - 36 - 3
Big EastPittsburgh8 - 16 - 3
Big EastConnecticut6 - 35 - 4
Big EastRutgers3 - 65 - 4
Big EastSyracuse2 - 72 - 7
Big TenOhio State10 - 010 - 0
Big TenIllinois8 - 28 - 2
Big TenIndiana8 - 27 - 3
Big TenWisconsin9 - 17 - 3
Big TenMichigan7 - 36 - 4
Big TenPenn State5 - 56 - 4
Big TenPurdue9 - 16 - 4
Big TenIowa4 - 65 - 5
Big TenMichigan State4 - 75 - 6
Big TenMinn.3 - 74 - 6
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 54 - 6
Big TwelveOklahoma10 - 09 - 1
Big TwelveKansas9 - 18 - 2
Big TwelveMissouri10 - 08 - 2
Big TwelveTexas Tech8 - 28 - 2
Big TwelveOklahoma State7 - 37 - 3
Big TwelveTexas8 - 27 - 3
Big TwelveKansas State5 - 56 - 4
Big TwelveNebraska5 - 55 - 5
Big TwelveColorado4 - 64 - 6
Big TwelveTexas A&M3 - 74 - 6
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 83 - 7
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 92 - 8
Conference USAHouston8 - 17 - 2
Conference USAEast Carolina6 - 36 - 3
Conference USATulsa6 - 36 - 3
Conference USAUCF7 - 26 - 3
Conference USARice7 - 36 - 4
Conference USAS. Miss6 - 45 - 5
Conference USAMemphis2 - 84 - 6
Conference USASMU4 - 64 - 6
Conference USAMarshall3 - 63 - 6
Conference USAUTEP3 - 63 - 6
Conference USATulane1 - 82 - 7
Conference USAUAB1 - 82 - 7
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame5 - 45 - 4
Independents (FBS)Navy4 - 54 - 5
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky3 - 73 - 7
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 92 - 8
Mid-AmericanBall State8 - 17 - 2
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)7 - 26 - 3
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan7 - 36 - 4
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan6 - 35 - 4
Mid-AmericanBowling Green4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanOhio4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 54 - 5
Mid-AmericanTemple3 - 64 - 5
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 73 - 6
Mid-AmericanBuffalo2 - 73 - 6
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois3 - 63 - 6
Mid-AmericanToledo3 - 63 - 6
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 83 - 7
Mountain WestBrigham Young10 - 09 - 1
Mountain WestUtah8 - 28 - 2
Mountain WestTCU9 - 28 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force7 - 37 - 3
Mountain WestNew Mexico7 - 46 - 5
Mountain WestWyoming4 - 65 - 5
Mountain WestColorado St.3 - 73 - 7
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 83 - 7
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 92 - 8
Pacific-10USC8 - 18 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.7 - 26 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona6 - 35 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon6 - 46 - 4
Pacific-10California7 - 25 - 4
Pacific-10UCLA4 - 55 - 4
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 63 - 6
Pacific-10Washington St.3 - 73 - 6
Pacific-10Washington2 - 73 - 6
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 92 - 8
SoutheasternGeorgia10 - 09 - 1
SoutheasternLSU9 - 19 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida7 - 27 - 2
SoutheasternAlabama7 - 37 - 3
SoutheasternAuburn8 - 27 - 3
SoutheasternS. Carolina6 - 46 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee6 - 46 - 4
SoutheasternMississippi State4 - 55 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky6 - 45 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 64 - 5
SoutheasternArkansas4 - 64 - 6
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 91 - 8
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic7 - 27 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Monroe7 - 36 - 4
Sun BeltArkansas St.5 - 45 - 4
Sun BeltTroy3 - 74 - 6
Sun BeltLA-Laf2 - 73 - 6
Sun BeltMid Tenn2 - 73 - 6
Sun BeltNorth Texas2 - 83 - 7
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 91 - 8
Western AthleticBoise State8 - 18 - 1
Western AthleticFresno State8 - 17 - 2
Western AthleticNevada6 - 36 - 3
Western AthleticHawaii5 - 56 - 4
Western AthleticIdaho5 - 55 - 5
Western AthleticNew Mexico State3 - 64 - 5
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 74 - 6
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech3 - 63 - 6
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 101 - 9

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