Week 10 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
October 27, 2008

Each Monday morning will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.


Games of the Week: #1 Texas 36 @ #9 Texas Tech 30
The Longhorns' brutal stretch against four straight top ten teams ends with another close shootout, this time on the road against Mike Leach's best Texas Tech team to date. The Red Raiders are also just the fourth best of those four top ten opponents. Tech has been putting up its typical seven touchdowns a game, but an opportunistic defense that is third in the nation with 14 interceptions has set this team a part, keeping it from having to play many close games. Don't expect Texas to be so kind. Colt McCoy is completing 81.8% of his passes and has thrown just four interceptions on 242 attempts. With two extremely efficient offenses, the team that will win this game will likely be the team that possesses the ball last - which will also likely be the team that makes one big defensive stand. 57.2% of the time that team is Texas as the Longhorns win in Lubbock by an average score of 36-30. That being said, Texas still has a difficult path to the national championship game. Including this game, the Longhorns have just a 35.1% chance of making it through the Big 12 Championship undefeated.

#8 Florida 31 vs. #10 Georgia 26
The polls have these teams backwards; Florida is the better team. Despite playing almost exactly the same quality of opponents, Florida is winning by 16 more points per game than Georgia (Florida's average score is 42-12; Georgia's average score is 34-20). In almost every relevant statistic, including yards-per-rush for, yards-per-pass for and against, turnover margin, punt returns for and against and kick returns, the Gators have been better than the Bulldogs. Florida is the better team and it will prove that in Jacksonville this weekend - at least they will 53.8% of the time and by an average score of 31-26.

Others
Homefield advantage helps several teams that would not otherwise be favored in some of the other big games of the weekend. #19 Georgia Tech runs over #14 Florida State 61.9% of the time and by an average score of 22-16. #22 Oregon travels to #23 Cal where the Golden Bears emerge victorious 60.9% of the time and by an average score of 25-19. #21 Iowa heads to Champaign where it loses 63.0% of the time to an Illinois team that has shown enough to be ranked in our top 25 despite its .500 record. On Thursday night, Cincinnati is a slight home favorite over South Florida, winning just 51.3% of the time in the sim. And, Notre Dame sneaks by an inconsistent Pitt team by just a field goal (24-21) on average.

Week 10 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State9515-34
Washington @ USC956-41
Washington St. @ Stanford959-33
Auburn @ Mississippi958-28
Arkansas St. @ Alabama91.115-32
Temple @ Navy88.913-29
E. Michigan @ W. Michigan8820-36
Tulane @ LSU86.919-34
Arizona St. @ Oregon State86.318-31
Nebraska @ Oklahoma85.928-40
Colorado @ Texas A&M85.714-27
North Texas @ Western Kentucky85.514-28
Miami (FL) @ Virginia849-22
Duke @ WF81.211-20
Michigan @ Purdue80.612-23
Fla. Int. @ LA-Laf75.120-30
C. Michigan @ Indiana74.521-29
Northwestern @ Minn.7415-24
Kansas State @ Kansas73.125-33
UAB @ S. Miss7124-33
San Diego State @ Wyoming68.314-21
Tennessee @ S. Carolina66.213-19
Iowa @ Illinois6326-32
W. Virginia @ Connecticut62.817-23
Buffalo @ Ohio62.618-22
Florida State @ GA Tech61.916-22
Oregon @ California60.919-25
Wisconsin @ Michigan State60.120-25
Kent St. @ Bowling Green59.420-24
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame57.121-24
Hawaii @ Utah State56.920-25
South Florida @ Cincinnati51.324-25
Kentucky @ Mississippi State48.515-12
Clemson @ Boston College46.521-17
Florida vs. Georgia46.231-26
Rice @ UTEP4332-26
Texas @ Texas Tech41.836-30
Brigham Young @ Colorado St.37.528-21
Fresno State @ Louisiana Tech33.830-22
Missouri @ Baylor30.936-27
Houston @ Marshall3031-22
Tulsa @ Arkansas27.840-28
Boise State @ New Mexico State26.228-17
Louisville @ Syracuse23.129-17
San Jose State @ Idaho20.823-11
TCU @ UNLV19.130-17
East Carolina @ UCF18.323-10
Utah @ New Mexico18.128-15
Air Force @ Army11.230-13
Troy @ LA-Monroe9.337-18

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