Week 13 NFL Predictions

Boxscores and stats from every upcoming game
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
November 25th, 2008

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.


Game of the Week: #12 Bears 19 @ #15 Vikings 21
A crucial NFC North game between two inconsistent teams with equal records is as close as it gets "on paper" (or in this case - in computer). We simulated the Minnesota Vikings against the Chicago Bears 10,001 times and the Vikings won at home 5,006 of those games. It's that close. The division lead will come down to what amounts to a coin-flip. Looking at the numbers, Minnesota has the clear edge in the running game - offensively and defensive - outgaining its opponents by 1.3 yards per carry (the Bears have a +0.7 yards per carry margin). However, the Bears hold the clear advantage in the passing game with 12 fewer interceptions thrown and an overall QB rating 8.7 points higher than their opponents (Minnesota has thrown five more interceptions and allowed a QB rating 9.9 points higher). With a game this close and the score this low (21-19 on average) one big play - a turnover returned for a TD, a long kick or punt return or a 60+ yard score - will be the difference. We are currently projecting both teams to go 2-2 after Week 13, which makes this weekend's evenly-matched contest even bigger. As of right now, our projected NFC playoff teams are the Minnesota Vikings (by 0.1% over Chicago), New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys. In the AFC, our projected playoff lineup includes the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos (at 7-9), Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 13 Scores for Every NFL Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Seattle @ Dallas90.213-32Boxscore
Denver @ New York Jets79.319-31Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Houston72.819-28Boxscore
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay62.519-25Boxscore
Kansas City @ Oakland59.121-26Boxscore
San Francisco @ Buffalo58.319-24Boxscore
Chicago @ Minnesota50.119-21Boxscore
Atlanta @ San Diego41.728-27Boxscore
Carolina @ Green Bay40.122-21Boxscore
New York Giants @ Washington30.322-17Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ New England26.821-16Boxscore
Arizona @ Philadelphia24.125-18Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Cleveland15.428-17Boxscore
Baltimore @ Cincinnati12.621-10Boxscore
Miami @ St. Louis833-16Boxscore
Tennessee @ Detroit632-13Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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