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College Football Power Rankings

Week 11 Rankings
By Eric Schmoldt and Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
November 9th, 2009

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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline:
Forget about The Big Three. If this week's simulations show anything, it's that there's still plenty of room for movement at the top of the power rankings.

Florida continues to hold down the top spot, but there's a new #2 and Alabama has now dropped all the way to #5 heading into Week 11 of the college football season.

The TCU Horned Frogs continue their run with one of the nation's best defenses, but have added a balanced offensive attack that has helped them to a 9-0 start and now a #2 spot in the power rankings. TCU beat up on San Diego State on Saturday, outgaining the Aztecs by nearly 300 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers.

With another dominant performance and perhaps their toughest test remaining in their quest for a perfect season coming this weekend, the Horned Frogs now beat 97.4% of all opponents in 100 simulations with each and every FBS team.

But the Horned Frogs aren't the only team breaking up the three teams - Florida, Alabama and Texas - dominating national championship talk around the country. Cincinnati survived a scare from Connecticut and has pushed beyond the Crimson Tide, taking over the #4 spot

The Bearcats' offense, particularly their aerial assault, rank amongst the nation's best. They racked up more than 700 yards of total offense against the Huskies and, despite their defense giving up more than 500, they're now beating FBS opponents 94.8% of the time, edging Alabama by a mere 0.1%.

Biggest Gains:
There was much more movement in recent weeks towards the top of the rankings, including three teams in the top 25 that moved up a dozen spots or more.

Stanford toppled Oregon - a top-five team in our rankings a week ago - and jumps 14 spots from #27 to #13 this week as it prepares for another huge game with USC. BYU went to Wyoming and completed decimated the Cowboys on both sides of the ball in a 52-0 rout, moving up 12 spots to #14. And Wisconsin, one of the nation's quietest two-loss teams, edged Indiana on the road and jumps up 14 spots and back into the top 25.

Tulsa is actually officially the biggest jumper, despite losing to Houston. The 46-45 loss vaults Tulsa up 23 spots to #63 in the country. Both Baylor and Northwestern move up 19 spots, but remain in the bottom half of the rankings.

Biggest Losses:
Four teams drop at least 20 spots, but none of them were bigger than Oklahoma, which was able to muster just three points in a 10-3 loss to Nebraska. The Sooners had climbed back into the top 10 despite entering last weekend with three losses, but they had all been single-digit losses to some of the nation's top teams. Another tight one costs the Sooners dearly as Oklahoma falls 26 spots from #9 to #35 and are now beating all other FBS opponents just 67.5% of the time.

Virginia, which wound up being crushed by Miami 52-17, is officially the biggest loser in the rankings, plummeting 28 spots to #96. Kansas, which lost to rival Kansas State in the unpredictable and unimpressive Big 12 North, falls 26 spots to #66. And Wyoming, crippled on their home field in their third shutout loss of the year, dips 23 spots and is teetering on falling out of the top 100.


Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
1.Florida Gators-98.754.37.1
2.TCU Horned Frogs+197.451.78.8
3.Texas Longhorns-196.342.67.7
4.Cincinnati Bearcats+294.850.213.5
5.Alabama Crimson Tide-194.744.58.0
6.Boise State Broncos+191.842.713.1
7.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+391.748.818.9
8.Pittsburgh Panthers+588.541.115.2
9.Arizona Wildcats+685.238.115.6
10.USC Trojans+184.937.015.2
11.Ohio State Buckeyes+784.534.313.1
12.Utah Utes+783.935.915.7
13.Stanford Cardinal+1482.742.019.9
14.Brigham Young Cougars+1282.038.420.2
15.Oregon Ducks-1081.634.315.5
16.Oklahoma State Cowboys+580.634.616.9
17.LSU Tigers-379.429.213.4
18.Houston Cougars-279.140.722.7
19.Clemson Tigers-278.331.314.2
20.Iowa Hawkeyes-1277.727.913.0
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
21.Penn State Nittany Lions-977.431.215.3
22.Miami (FL) Hurricanes+777.033.716.7
23.Virginia Tech Hokies-76.935.118.7
24.Wisconsin Badgers+1475.533.417.9
25.South Florida Bulls-175.434.719.2
26.Oregon State Beavers+774.331.517.3
27.Texas Tech Red Raiders+873.330.018.0
28.Fresno State Bulldogs+472.437.524.1
29.Nebraska Cornhuskers+772.125.514.3
30.West Virginia Mountaineers-271.430.817.6
31.Tennessee Volunteers-71.428.816.5
32.Arkansas Razorbacks+570.935.922.9
33.Auburn Tigers+969.932.920.5
34.Rutgers Scarlet Knights-69.728.218.5
35.Oklahoma Sooners-2667.522.514.5
36.Notre Dame Fighting Irish-1666.932.423.3
37.Kansas State Wildcats+1366.828.718.8
38.Mississippi Rebels+166.629.620.1
39.Nevada Wolf Pack-1466.133.223.3
40.Air Force Falcons+1164.624.017.1
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
41.California Golden Bears-1964.528.920.5
42.Georgia Bulldogs+1461.326.621.0
43.Wake Forest Demon Deacons+1261.225.820.6
44.Connecticut Huskies-361.027.521.3
45.Michigan State Spartans+460.627.021.4
46.Troy Trojans+760.527.721.6
47.Missouri Tigers-1759.523.218.9
48.Southern Miss Golden Eagles-158.726.921.4
49.Idaho Vandals-458.030.826.9
50.Boston College Eagles-457.423.519.7
51.Texas A&M Aggies-355.925.623.0
52.Florida State Seminoles-855.829.827.0
53.South Carolina Gamecocks-1054.222.119.9
54.Temple Owls-254.022.119.9
55.Central Michigan Chippewas+353.423.721.8
56.Northern Illinois Huskies+752.824.223.0
57.Arizona State Sun Devils-351.620.019.7
58.Navy Midshipmen+251.423.623.4
59.Purdue Boilermakers+551.322.221.8
60.North Carolina Tar Heels-150.815.616.1
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
61.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+150.822.421.4
62.North Carolina State Wolfpack+1149.822.923.1
63.Tulsa Golden Hurricane+2349.627.327.9
64.Baylor Bears+1949.521.522.6
65.Mississippi State Bulldogs-448.122.123.5
66.Kansas Jayhawks-2646.121.523.1
67.Utah State Aggies-1045.525.027.6
68.Illinois Fighting Illini+1044.823.225.9
69.UAB Blazers+1543.425.127.5
70.East Carolina Pirates-543.218.823.0
71.Michigan Wolverines-142.021.326.5
72.Northwestern Wildcats+1941.316.922.8
73.Hawaii Warriors+1440.124.530.4
74.Minnesota Golden Gophers-540.017.625.1
75.Indiana Hoosiers-439.018.825.4
76.Southern Methodist Mustangs-38.917.624.2
77.Kentucky Wildcats-337.817.725.1
78.Ohio Bobcats+437.815.222.9
79.Toledo Rockets+236.720.128.2
80.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders+1036.217.225.8
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
81.Arkansas State Red Wolves-936.217.325.0
82.UCLA Bruins-1536.016.324.4
83.Washington Huskies+234.619.328.4
84.Colorado Buffaloes+533.916.124.7
85.Iowa State Cyclones-1932.318.329.0
86.Buffalo Bulls-631.917.228.1
87.UCF Knights+631.213.824.0
88.Kent State Golden Flashes+730.813.623.8
89.Duke Blue Devils-1030.214.625.4
90.Louisville Cardinals-230.216.327.9
91.UTEP Miners+829.819.231.9
92.Marshall Thundering Herd-29.715.926.9
93.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs-1629.516.927.8
94.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns-28.615.729.1
95.Syracuse Orange+225.513.427.4
96.Virginia Cavaliers-2824.99.123.5
97.Western Michigan Broncos+123.314.331.2
98.Wyoming Cowboys-2322.710.927.3
99.Florida Atlantic Owls+222.417.736.1
100.Ball State Cardinals+620.613.431.4
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
101.UNLV Rebels+920.615.834.7
102.Maryland Terrapins+119.811.228.5
103.Army Black Knights+219.210.229.3
104.Vanderbilt Commodores-18.511.330.1
105.Colorado State Rams-518.511.129.4
106.Memphis Tigers+117.313.233.1
107.North Texas Mean Green-517.013.135.6
108.San Diego State Aztecs-1216.69.329.0
109.Bowling Green Falcons-15.610.833.8
110.Akron Zips+115.310.431.5
111.Tulane Green Wave-314.211.933.5
112.Miami (OH) RedHawks+311.48.234.0
113.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-19.310.139.8
114.New Mexico Lobos-8.76.434.4
115.Washington State Cougars+18.37.838.1
116.New Mexico State Aggies+27.77.338.4
117.San Jose State Spartans+36.17.640.8
118.Rice Owls-16.17.838.6
119.Florida International Golden Panthers-65.37.238.6
120.Eastern Michigan Eagles-14.06.142.1

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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