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College Football SimMatchup
WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Most Notable Storyline:
With not a single one-loss team in the country, it would seem to be a given that the six undefeated teams would hold down the top six spots.
Not so much. It's not necessarily about wins and losses in the computersí eyes. It's about production, figures and strength of schedule.
Sorry Boise State.
The Broncos are leap-frogged this week by a team that didn't even play last week and won't play again until New Year's Day as the Ohio State Buckeyes sneak into the top seven, jumping two spots and breaking up the nation's unbeatens.
Ohio State's offense may not be extremely impressive, but in 100 simulations against every other Football Bowl Subdivision team, they hold the fourth-ranked scoring defense. And it's that defense that propels them over the Broncos.
The Buckeyes are giving up about 0.75 yards per play less than the Broncos this season and while the Big Ten may be suffering a down year, Boise State's cupcake schedule and easy trip through the Western Athletic Conference looks paltry.
And Ohio State's schedule looks that much better after this past weekend. While everyone else was losing, USC - one of the Buckeyes' two losses - beat UCLA and Iowa and Penn State - which Ohio State beat - were idle and move up in the rankings as well.
In a week characterized by its losses, it didn't take a dominating victory to move up. West Virginia, LSU and Georgia won their games by a combined 10 points but jump a combined 39 spots in this week's power rankings.
The Bulldogs move up the most out of the three, jumping 17 spots to #26 with a six-point victory against Georgia Tech. The Mountaineers - who won by three against Pitt - and the Tigers - who also won by a field goal against Arkansas - each leap 11 spots to #14 and #16, respectively.
But the week's biggest jump belongs to Ohio. The Bobcats didn't just end Temple's eight-game winning streak, they stomped on it, winning 35-17. Ohio, outside the top half of the FBS a week ago, jumps 25 spots and into the top 50.
There were plenty of notable losses. Maybe too many. There were so many that there weren't a whole lot of dramatic falls in the rankings.
The biggest belonged to Temple, which had won an impressive eight games in a row. That streak came to a screeching halt and so did the Owls' run in the top 35. They drop 14 spots to #48 and are now winning 55.7% of their games against FBS opponents. Interestingly enough, the drop still leaves them exactly one spot and 0.4% ahead of Ohio, the team that ended their streak.
Clemson, which had moved back into the top 15, drops 12 but clings to its top-25 spot after losing to South Carolina. Ole Miss, which had rebounded back into the top 20, matches Temple's drop, plummeting 14 spots and back outside the top 30 after losing big to in-state rival Mississippi State.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|2.||TCU Horned Frogs||+1||97.1||50.0||10.1|
|3.||Alabama Crimson Tide||+1||96.6||44.1||7.5|
|6.||Ohio State Buckeyes||+2||89.9||37.8||11.2|
|7.||Boise State Broncos||-||88.9||43.7||14.8|
|8.||Virginia Tech Hokies||+3||87.6||38.2||15.0|
|9.||Penn State Nittany Lions||+1||87.4||36.6||14.0|
|10.||Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||-4||87.2||43.0||18.8|
|13.||Brigham Young Cougars||+3||81.7||37.7||18.8|
|14.||West Virginia Mountaineers||+11||81.3||35.7||17.0|
|19.||Texas Tech Red Raiders||-4||77.9||32.7||17.3|
|21.||California Golden Bears||-||77.1||33.3||18.4|
|23.||Oregon State Beavers||-6||76.8||32.8||16.7|
|29.||Nevada Wolf Pack||+1||73.5||35.9||21.4|
|31.||Miami (FL) Hurricanes||+8||70.8||29.9||17.9|
|33.||Central Michigan Chippewas||+9||69.5||30.0||18.7|
|36.||North Carolina Tar Heels||-4||68.7||22.6||14.4|
|37.||Oklahoma State Cowboys||-8||68.3||26.8||17.8|
|39.||South Carolina Gamecocks||+5||66.8||25.4||17.6|
|40.||Air Force Falcons||-5||65.5||26.1||18.5|
|41.||Rutgers Scarlet Knights||-||64.1||26.0||18.3|
|44.||South Florida Bulls||-13||59.7||25.3||21.3|
|45.||Michigan State Spartans||+2||59.2||26.1||21.8|
|46.||Fresno State Bulldogs||+4||58.4||33.1||28.1|
|47.||Southern Miss Golden Eagles||-10||57.9||26.4||22.4|
|51.||East Carolina Pirates||+6||53.7||23.4||20.6|
|52.||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||-3||53.6||27.2||24.9|
|53.||Texas A&M Aggies||+2||52.9||24.7||22.8|
|54.||Kansas State Wildcats||+2||52.8||22.8||21.7|
|55.||Florida State Seminoles||-9||52.5||29.7||28.4|
|56.||Boston College Eagles||-2||52.3||20.3||19.1|
|59.||Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||+5||50.1||21.7||21.5|
|61.||North Carolina State Wolfpack||+11||49.7||22.3||23.1|
|63.||Northern Illinois Huskies||+2||48.9||22.7||23.8|
|64.||Wake Forest Demon Deacons||-2||48.7||22.6||23.6|
|71.||Illinois Fighting Illini||-3||45.6||21.6||25.2|
|72.||Mississippi State Bulldogs||+4||43.3||21.3||25.1|
|73.||Utah State Aggies||-4||42.2||25.0||28.9|
|74.||Southern Methodist Mustangs||+1||41.6||19.4||24.8|
|75.||Arizona State Sun Devils||-5||41.6||17.4||21.2|
|77.||Marshall Thundering Herd||+2||38.0||17.0||24.9|
|81.||Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||-3||37.2||18.2||25.5|
|89.||Duke Blue Devils||+4||30.1||14.3||26.4|
|90.||Iowa State Cyclones||+6||30.1||16.4||29.0|
|91.||Kent State Golden Flashes||+1||28.8||12.9||24.8|
|92.||Minnesota Golden Gophers||-3||28.2||13.8||24.2|
|93.||Army Black Knights||-2||25.2||12.6||27.7|
|95.||Arkansas State Red Wolves||-||24.9||14.4||27.7|
|97.||Western Michigan Broncos||-||22.5||14.4||30.5|
|98.||Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||+1||22.1||13.2||28.8|
|99.||Tulsa Golden Hurricane||-9||22.1||15.0||32.2|
|101.||Ball State Cardinals||+5||21.4||13.8||30.5|
|102.||North Texas Mean Green||+1||21.2||14.7||33.2|
|105.||San Diego State Aztecs||-4||18.3||11.2||27.8|
|106.||Bowling Green Falcons||+2||18.1||11.6||31.0|
|109.||Florida Atlantic Owls||-11||16.8||17.1||37.1|
|110.||Colorado State Rams||-1||13.0||11.3||32.5|
|111.||New Mexico Lobos||+1||12.6||8.7||31.4|
|113.||Miami (OH) RedHawks||+2||9.9||7.6||35.0|
|114.||Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||-1||9.2||10.5||38.9|
|115.||Tulane Green Wave||-1||9.1||8.5||35.7|
|116.||Florida International Golden Panthers||-||7.4||7.8||36.4|
|117.||New Mexico State Aggies||+1||7.1||7.8||38.9|
|118.||Washington State Cougars||+1||6.1||6.9||39.7|
|119.||San Jose State Spartans||-2||5.0||7.8||40.5|
|120.||Eastern Michigan Eagles||-||5.0||7.2||40.9|
Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!