2009-10 College Football Bowl Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

2009-10 College Football Bowl Predictions

Simulated boxscores of 34 Bowls
By Michael Schneid and Eric Schmoldt, WhatIfSports.com
December 9th, 2009

We simulated 34 college football bowls 1,000 times to find the likely winners and average scores from each game. Results and example boxscores from all 34 games are below. If you would like to play these games yourself, every 2009 team is available through our free NCAA college football SimMatchup.

New Mexico Bowl - Dec 19, 2009 View Boxscore >
Bulldogs emblem
Cowboys emblem
Fresno State
27.8

Wyoming
18.6
Highlight: The nation's top running back hits his season average as the Bulldogs run wild for more than 230 yards against the Cowboys.

Player of the Game: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State (171 yards, 155 on the ground, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Fresno State 76.2% - Wyoming 23.8%
St. Petersburg Bowl Presented by Beef 'O' Brady's - Dec 19, 2009 View Boxscore >
Scarlet Knights emblem
Knights emblem
Rutgers
21.3

UCF
17.4
Highlight: Battle of shoulda-coulda-woulda teams comes right down to the wire in perhaps the most evenly matched game.

Player of the Game: Brynn Harvey, RB, Central Florida (117 total yards, 97 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Rutgers 50.5% - Central Florida 49.5%
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 20, 2009 View Boxscore >
Golden Eagles emblem
Blue Raiders emblem
Southern Miss
23.0

Middle Tennessee
22.2
Highlight: Martevious Young, who didnít even start at quarterback until the sixth game of the season, closes out a successful season by leading the Golden Eagles to a bowl win.

Player of the Game: Young, QB, Southern Miss (180 yards passing, 2 TDs, 24 rushing yards)

Winning Percentage: Southern Miss 54.5% - Middle Tennessee 45.5%
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 22, 2009 View Boxscore >
Beavers emblem
Cougars emblem
Oregon State
24.9

Brigham Young
23.9
Highlight: Beaversí rushing attack prevails over BYUís aerial assault in yet another close early bowl game.

Player of the Game: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State (119 rushing yards, 1 TD, 40 receiving yards)

Winning Percentage: Oregon State 57.4% - BYU 42.6%
Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23, 2009 View Boxscore >
Golden Bears emblem
Utes emblem
California
25.6

Utah
23.0
Highlight: Perhaps the Heisman front-runner after the first month of the season, Cal running back Jahvid Best carries the Bears past Eddie Wide and the Utes.

Player of the Game: Best, RB, California (133 total yards, 105 on the ground, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: California 67.3% - Utah 32.7%
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24, 2009 View Boxscore >
Wolf Pack emblem
Mustangs emblem
Nevada
31.2

Southern Methodist
25.5
Highlight: Nevadaís three-headed monster at running back -- the Wolfpack are the first team to have three 1,000-yard rushers -- takes care of business in SMU coach June Jonesí return to Hawaii.

Player of the Game: Vai Taua, RB, Nevada (137 rushing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Nevada 65.3% - SMU 34.7%
Emerald Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >
Trojans emblem
Eagles emblem
USC
27.7

Boston College
21.1
Highlight: In their first non-BCS bowl in eight years, the Trojans cap off an underwhelming season in a game that, statistically speaking, could be described with the same adjective.

Player of the Game: Joe McKnight, RB, USC (97 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: USC 64.4% - Boston College 35.6%
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >
Panthers emblem
Tar Heels emblem
Pittsburgh
25.6

North Carolina
11.6
Highlight: North Carolinaís offense fails to get untracked, barely mustering 250 yards of total offense as Pitt bounces back from two straight losses.

Player of the Game: Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh (132 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Pittsburgh 83.2% - North Carolina 16.8%
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >
Bobcats emblem
Thundering Herd emblem
Ohio
21.2

Marshall
18.0
Highlight: In what seems like perhaps the most lackluster matchup of the bunch, the Bobcats cap off a hot finish to the season by beating the Thundering Herd.

Player of the Game: Darius Marshall, RB, Marshall (116 yards rushing, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Ohio 58.4% - Marshall 41.6%
Music City Bowl - Dec 27, 2009 View Boxscore >
Tigers emblem
Wildcats emblem
Clemson
27.0

Kentucky
13.3
Highlight: Heisman snub C.J. Spiller runs all over one of the nationís worst rushing defenses as Clemson puts up one of the biggest routs of the bowl season.

Player of the Game: Spiller, RB, Clemson (139 total yards, 115 yards rushing, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Clemson 80.2% - Kentucky 19.8%
Gridiron Dynasty - College Football Game
Independence Bowl - Dec 28, 2009 View Boxscore >
Bulldogs emblem
Aggies emblem
Georgia
31.2

Texas A&M
17.7
Highlight: Bulldogs rack up about 400 yards of total offense in a battle of ho-hum teams from the nationís top two conferences.

Player of the Game: Joe Cox, QB, Georgia (201 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Georgia 83.2% - Texas A&M 16.8%
Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 29, 2009 View Boxscore >
Hurricanes emblem
Badgers emblem
Miami (FL)
26.5

Wisconsin
18.7
Highlight: One-time Heisman hopeful Jacory Harris outduels Big Tenís Offensive Player of the Year in battle of passing attack versus ground game.

Player of the Game: Harris, QB, Miami (204 yards passing, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Miami 64.4% - Wisconsin 35.6%
EagleBank Bowl - Dec 29, 2009 View Boxscore >
Owls emblem
Bruins emblem
Temple
22.8

UCLA
18.0
Highlight: The Owls, playing in their first bowl game in 30 years, use a strong rushing attack to knock off the Bruins.

Player of the Game: Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple (125 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Temple 61.4% - UCLA 38.6%
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >
Wildcats emblem
Cornhuskers emblem
Arizona
21.5

Nebraska
16.5
Highlight: In whatís been the story of the year for the Cornhuskers, Nebraskaís offense struggles to find the end zone, spoiling Ndamukong Suhís finale against Wildcats.

Player of the Game: Nic Grigsby, RB, Arizona (80 yards on just 11 carries, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Arizona 60.4% - Nebraska 39.6%
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >
Vandals emblem
Falcons emblem
Idaho
32.5

Bowling Green
20.4
Highlight: Despite holding one the nationís top passing attacks, the Vandals go to the ground to beat Bowling Green on the Smurf Turf.

Player of the Game: DeMaundray Woolridge, RB, Idaho (107 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Idaho 84.2% - Bowling Green 15.8%
Texas Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >
Tigers emblem
Midshipmen emblem
Missouri
25.3

Navy
12.7
Highlight: Mizzouís more balanced offensive attack prevails over the triple-option Midshipmen, who canít hang tough with just seven passing attempts.

Player of the Game: Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri (94 receiving yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Missouri 82.2% - Navy 17.8%
Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >
Cougars emblem
Falcons emblem
Houston
27.4

Air Force
22.7
Highlight: Houston ruins Air Forceís third consecutive trip to Fort Worth as the nationís top passing offense prevails against the countryís top passing defense.

Player of the Game: Case Keenum, QB, Houston (231 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Houston 75.2% - Air Force 24.8%
Insight Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >
Golden Gophers emblem
Cyclones emblem
Minnesota
18.8

Iowa State
19.1
Highlight: Minnesota and Iowa State clash in a Border Battle of epic defensive proportions as the two teams combine for just over 600 yards of total offense.

Player of the Game: Adam Weber, QB, Minnesota (194 passing yards, 1 TD).

Winning Percentage: Minnesota 53.5% - Iowa State 46.5%
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >
Hokies emblem
Volunteers emblem
Virginia Tech
26.3

Tennessee
16.7
Highlight: The Hokies donít let the disappointment of missing out on the BCS, using their rushing attack to take down the upstart Volunteers.

Player of the Game: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech (160 total yards, 139 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Virginia Tech 75.2% - Tennessee 24.8%
Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >
Cardinal emblem
Sooners emblem
Stanford
29.3

Oklahoma
20.1
Highlight: With a running back in the mix for college footballís top award, the Cardinal run rampant over the Sooners, closing out a disappointing year for Oklahoma.

Player of the Game: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford (168 total yards, 151 rushing, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Stanford 68.3% - Oklahoma 31.7%
Rose Bowl Presented By Citi - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >
Ducks emblem
Buckeyes emblem
Oregon
21.5

Ohio State
12.9
Highlight: Oregonís defense shuts down Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor and the Ducks let one of the nationís most underrated running backs single-handedly take down the Buckeyes.

Player of the Game: LaMichael James, RB, Oregon (104 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Oregon State 71.4% - OSU 28.6%
Gridiron Dynasty - College Football Game
Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >
Bearcats emblem
Gators emblem
Cincinnati
23.8

Florida
21.1
Highlight: After putting together an epic winning streak, is it possible that Tim Tebow and the Gators close out the year with consecutive losses? Tony Pike and the Bearcats make it happen.

Player of the Game: Pike, QB, Cincinnati (273 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Cincinnati 53.9% - Florida 46.1%
Outback Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >
Tigers emblem
Wildcats emblem
Auburn
32.5

Northwestern
11.0
Highlight: By far the biggest romp of the bowl season belongs to Auburn as the Tigersí defense stymies Northwesternís running game to the tune of just 3.0 yards per carry.

Player of the Game: Chris Todd, QB, Auburn (247 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Auburn 92.1% - Northwestern 7.9%
Capital One Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >
Nittany Lions emblem
Tigers emblem
Penn State
17.1

LSU
14.3
Highlight: In a battle of teams that just missed out on the BCS and teams that failed to win their biggest games of the year, the Nittany Lions come out on top thanks to a defense that barely allows 250 yards.

Player of the Game: Evan Royster, RB, Penn State (96 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Penn State 51.5% - LSU 48.5%
Gator Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >
Mountaineers emblem
Seminoles emblem
West Virginia
28.0

Florida State
15.8
Highlight: Mountaineers seemed to pick up steam over the final two weeks while Seminoles seemed to lose momentum along with their quarterback, leading to a West Virginia romp.

Player of the Game: Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia (101 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: West Virginia 83.2% - Florida State 16.8%
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >
Razorbacks emblem
Pirates emblem
Arkansas
28.3

East Carolina
24.0
Highlight: Arkansasí transfer quarterback continues to prove that he made the right decision, capping off a solid season as the Razorbacks take down the Conference USA champs.

Player of the Game: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (265 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Arkansas 67.3% - East Carolina 32.7%
International Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >
Huskies emblem
Bulls emblem
Northern Illinois
22.5

South Florida
16.9
Highlight: After once seeming like a Big East contender, South Florida finishes off a late-season collapse with a bowl loss against one of the countryís most quietly impressive defenses.

Player of the Game: Chad Spann, RB, Northern Illinois (92 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Northern Illinois 63.4% - South Florida 36.6%
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >
Rebels emblem
Cowboys emblem
Mississippi
22.9

Oklahoma State
21.8
Highlight: Jevan Snead continues his turbulent season by matching his touchdowns with interceptions, but the Rebels still come out on top in a battle of teams that thought theyíd be playing for more.

Player of the Game: Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi (120 total yards, 81 on the ground, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Ole Miss 58.4% - Oklahoma State 41.6%
Papajohns.com Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >
Huskies emblem
Gamecocks emblem
Connecticut
19.7

South Carolina
16.6
Highlight: Huskies close out what has been an emotional season with a narrow victory over the Olí Ball Coach thanks to a dual-threat attack on the ground.

Player of the Game: Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut (115 total yards, 94 on the ground, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Connecticut 53.5% - South Carolina 46.5%
Valero Alamo Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >
Red Raiders emblem
Spartans emblem
Texas Tech
30.2

Michigan State
18.6
Highlight: Michigan State closes out a catastrophic bowl season for the Big Ten by giving up about 400 yards of total offense to a Red Raiders offense thatís not as powerful as previous years.

Player of the Game: Taylor Potts, QB, Texas Tech (236 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Texas Tech 78.2% - Michigan State 21.8%
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 04, 2010 View Boxscore >
Horned Frogs emblem
Broncos emblem
TCU
29.4

Boise State
23.1
Highlight: In the first battle of unbeatens in the bowl season, TCUís ground attack rushes for nearly 250 yards, using three backs to run roughshod over the Broncos.

Player of the Game: Joseph Turner, RB, TCU (91 rushing yards, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: TCU 62.4% - Boise State 37.6%
Gridiron Dynasty - College Football Game
FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 05, 2010 View Boxscore >
Hawkeyes emblem
Yellow Jackets emblem
Iowa
23.0

Georgia Tech
22.0
Highlight: Iowa had five of 12 games during the regular season come down to a field goal or less, so why not one more as Hawkeyes prevail over Yellow Jacketsí ground game.

Player of the Game: Adam Robinson, RB, Iowa (126 total yards, 111 rushing, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Iowa 60.2% - Georgia Tech 39.8%
GMAC Bowl - Jan 06, 2010 View Boxscore >
Trojans emblem
Chippewas emblem
Troy
26.6

Central Michigan
21.8
Highlight: Central Michiganís Dan LeFevour -- once considered a longshot candidate for the Heisman -- is outdueled by Troy signal-caller Levi Brown.

Player of the Game: Brown, QB, Troy (247 passing yards, 2 TDs)

Winning Percentage: Troy 59.4% - Central Michigan 40.6%
Citi National Championship Game - Jan 07, 2010 View Boxscore >
Crimson Tide emblem
Longhorns emblem
Alabama
21.9

Texas
12.6
Highlight: Mark Ingram comes up big under the bright lights once again, carrying the Crimson Tide to a perfect season and the national championship against the Longhorns.

Player of the Game: Ingram, RB, Alabama (116 total yards, 97 on the ground, 1 TD)

Winning Percentage: Alabama 74.2% - Texas 25.8%
December Madness - 2009 College Football Playoffs

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