Super Bowl XLV Prop Bets From WhatIfSports.com image

G-Notes: Super Bowl XLV Prop Bet Predictions

Christina Aguilera's national anthem will go short

By Ryan Fowler - Whatifsports.com
Feb. 2, 2011

From "Mean Joe" Greene taking a swig of a kid's Coke to three frogs croaking out "Bud-Weis-Er" to Larry Bird and Michael Jordan's "nothing but net" showdown to that "Milkaholic" baby hyping stocks online, the evolution of Super Bowl television ads may only be trumped, on occasion, by Las Vegas oddsmakers and the sassy prop bets they concoct.

Only in America can your grandma lay down a Benjamin on whether Fergie will be wearing a thong, G-string or bikini bottom when she first appears on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show. If she is right, grammie could pocket $100k and Fergie's career is extended another five years.

With that image in mind, Whatifsports.com has spent days running the numbers on several other
Super Bowl XLV prop bets, and here are our predictions.

 
Prop BetVegas OddsWIS Prediction
Coin FlipHeads (-105)
Tails (-105)
Heads - 50.17%
Aguilera's National Anthem1 minute, 52 seconds1 minute, 47 seconds
Gatorade Shower ColorBlue (10/1)Yellow - 70.2%
Clear/Water (2/1)
Lime Green (5/1)
Orange (3/1)
Red (15/2)
Yellow (3/2)
Brett Favre On-Air MentionsO/U - (2.5)Over - 4
QB Girlfriends on TV FirstJessica Szohr (Rodgers' girlfriend) - (-140)Szohr
Ashley Harlan (Ben's fiance) - (EVEN)

Prop Bet Analysis

Coin Flip - This prediction falls under the "tails never fails sabermetric theory of gravity" or TNFSTOG.

Aguilera's National Anthem - I spent way too much time breaking down national anthem film of Aguilera (no relation to Rick, former Minnesota Twins pitcher). Youtube.com provided five sample videos proving Christina can breeze through the anthem as fast as 1 minute, 21 seconds or milk the moment for up to 1:58 seconds. It took Carrie Underwood 1:45 to hit the last note prior to Super Bowl XLIV last year.

Gatorade Shower Color - I'm a visual learner. Here are the past five football Gatorade showers:

Urban Meyer Mike Tomlin Nick Saban Sean Payton Gene Chizik





Gatorade Shower Note: The last picture is Gene Chizik's arm.

Brett Favre On-Air Mentions - Broadcaster on-air segues into Favre (in no particular order):
Packers general manager Ted Thompson rolling the dice, Aaron Rodgers stepping outside of his shadow, comparing Favre's Super Bowl XXXI stats with Rodgers' Super XLV stats, and if Green Bay is winning late in the fourth quarter.

QB Girlfriends on TV First - Factors to consider: if either quarterback gets injured during game and/or if Roethlisberger or Rodgers have an impact on the first touchdown of the game. Jessica Szohr is more "famous" as an actress on "Gossip Girl", but Ashley Harlan's engagement is more intriguing considering Ben's recent off-the-field incidents.

Our NFL Simulation engine's 2,500 Super Bowl XLV simulations also generated predictions for the following in-game prop bets.

 
Prop BetVegas OddsWIS Prediction
Score FirstSteelers (-105)Steelers - 51.8%
Packers (-125)
Score First TDSteelersPackers - 51.1%
Packers
First Player TDRashard Mendenhall14.8%
James Starks11.4%
Greg Jennings9.7%
Mike Wallace9.6%
James Jones6.9%
Donald Driver6.3%
Brandon Jackson6.0%
Hines Ward5.7%
Over/Under (45.5)Over - (-105)Under - 66%
Under - (-115)
Super Bowl XLV MVPDonald Driver (25/1)0.50%
Hines Ward (25/1)0.68%
Greg Jennings (14/1)1.64%
Mike Wallace (16/1)2.8%
James Starks (14/1)4.5%
Rashard Mendenhall (15/2)8.58%
Ben Roethlisberger (7/2)20.93%
Aaron Rodgers (3/2)32.71%


 
Team1st Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr.4th Qtr.
Green Bay Packers4.210.914.320.3
Pittsburgh Steelers4.311.014.821.2

Simulate Super Bowl XLV

 
Team1st Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr.4th Qtr.
Green Bay Packers3101320
Pittsburgh Steelers3132023

Simulate Super Bowl XLV

 
TeamLast 2 Minutes of HalfLast 2 Minutes of Game
Green Bay Packers50.0%30.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers46.7%31.4%

Note: The odds that either team will score in the "Last 2 Minutes of the 1st Half" are:
Yes (-260) No (+200). This prop bet accounts for both teams.

With Super Bowl XLV being your last taste of football for the next seven months, Whatifsports.com is here with your daily fix. Create your ultimate Super Bowl roster using our Dream Teams feature. Take that roster and simulate it against ANY OTHER NFL TEAM IN HISTORY using our NFL SimMatchup tool.


Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

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