College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions From image

College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Week 5 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
September 22, 2014

Each Monday,'s NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Arkansas at Texas A&M

Sports simulation engines love to generate their predictions and projections based on the statistical DNA or resume of the teams involved in the matchup. What they aren't a fan of are quarter-by-quarter suspensions of collegiate athletes followed by a change of heart less than 24 hours before kickoff. Despite the challenges Florida State's athletic department threw at's college football simulation engine, Jameis Winston's suspension resulted in a near perfect prediction Saturday night. Out of 101 game simulations, we predicted the Seminoles would win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24-20 over the Tigers. Not too shabby.

Looking ahead to Week 5, a college football analysis recently proclaimed that the SEC West could be the ninth NFL division this season - it's that loaded. While those not in SEC country roll their eyes in disgust, Texas A&M and Arkansas meet up in our college football featured game of the week.

After experiencing a Week 1 beat down by No. 6 Auburn, the Razorbacks have rattled off three straight wins including a convincing 49-28 victory at Texas Tech. Bret Bielema and offensive Coordinator Jim Chaney have installed a run-first offense that may remind some of Bielema's backfield production from his time coaching Wisconsin. The running back by committee of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams has combined for 881 yards with 12 touchdowns the first month of the season. Arkansas ranks eighth in the country in rushing yards per game at better than 324 yards per contest.

The defensive numbers aren't so rosy as Arkansas State actually ranks ahead of the Razorbacks in total and scoring defense. Unlike Bielema's Badgers, Arkansas' defense ranks in the bottom half in those two categories.

Kevin Sumlin's Aggies haven't missed a beat without Johnny Football as Kenny Hill set the tone with a big win at South Carolina in Week 1. The quarterback is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only one pick. Playing the role of Mike Evans this season is Malcome Kennedy with a team-high 30 receptions for 334 yards, but Josh Reynolds leads the receiving corps with four scores. A & M is fourth in the nation in passing yards per game at over 400 per contest.

Their defense stinks - we'll leave it at that. However, when you have an offense like the Aggies, the video game, up-tempo style makes up for most deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball.

We simulated the Aggies and Razorbacks 101 times and the computer likes Texas A&M 75.2-percent of the time by an average score of 29-21.

College Football Week 5 Predictions
MatchupWin %Avg. Score 
Western Michigan Broncos14.414.0Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies85.627.5 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons27.714.2Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals72.321.6 
Kent State Golden Flashes31.718.0Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers68.323.8 
Akron Zips37.620.2Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers62.425.2 
North Carolina Tar Heels42.623.0Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers57.424.6 
Colorado State Rams47.523.2Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles52.524.2 
Duke Blue Devils48.524.6Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes51.523.5 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish72.326.0Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange27.717.6 
Florida State Seminoles75.230.5Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack24.819.5 
South Florida Bulls14.913.9Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers85.128.0 
Wyoming Cowboys22.818.4Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans77.227.4 
Illinois Fighting Illini30.720.7Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers69.329.0 
Northwestern Wildcats34.718.2Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions65.323.9 
Tulane Green Wave37.618.6Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights62.422.8 
Cincinnati Bearcats45.521.4Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes54.522.8 
Minnesota Golden Gophers51.521.7Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines48.521.9 
Maryland Terrapins61.424.9Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers38.623.2 
Iowa Hawkeyes70.825.0Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers29.217.8 
Eastern Illinois Panthers 5.0 8.6Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats95.041.1 
Central Michigan Chippewas35.624.7Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets64.429.0 
Miami (OH) RedHawks38.619.7Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls61.424.4 
Bowling Green Falcons72.327.1Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen27.717.8 
Washington State Cougars31.722.7Boxscore
@ Utah Utes68.327.5 
Oregon State Beavers40.622.6Boxscore
@ USC Trojans59.427.2 
Colorado Buffaloes43.623.3Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears56.426.0 
Stanford Cardinal59.422.9Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies40.620.6 
UCLA Bruins62.426.6Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils37.622.5 
New Mexico State Aggies 8.915.8Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers91.131.6 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs21.817.0Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers78.228.9 
Arkansas Razorbacks24.821.3Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies75.229.3 
Memphis Tigers29.719.0Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels70.325.7 
Tennessee Volunteers29.218.0Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs70.826.5 
Missouri Tigers39.121.0Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks60.923.9 
Vanderbilt Commodores43.117.4Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats56.920.2 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers48.028.4Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen52.029.4 
Army Black Knights95.042.6Boxscore
@ Yale Bulldogs 5.0 6.9 
UTEP Miners17.319.9Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats82.730.2 
Texas Tech Red Raiders39.626.4Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys60.430.7 
Baylor Bears78.230.6Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones21.819.6 
Texas Longhorns79.225.7Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks20.816.0 
FIU Golden Panthers24.318.3Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers75.727.3 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders45.527.1Boxscore
@ Old Dominion Monarchs54.527.0 
UTSA Roadrunners62.427.0Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls37.623.1 
Rice Owls72.826.2Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles27.220.5 
UNLV Rebels36.623.7Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs63.426.4 
Fresno State Bulldogs59.429.8Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos40.626.5 
Nevada Wolf Pack63.429.6Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans36.624.7 
Boise State Broncos72.829.5Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons27.222.4 
Appalachian State Mountaineers35.123.0Boxscore
@ Georgia Southern Eagles64.928.4 
Troy Trojans37.624.3Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks62.428.2 
South Alabama Jaguars76.228.9Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals23.819.9 
Temple Owls45.523.2Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies54.522.2 
Texas State Bobcats46.520.9Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane53.523.0 
TCU Horned Frogs79.226.8Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs20.816.7 
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