The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

East/Round 1

Round One

1 Pitt 81
16 ETSU 67
8 Ok. St. 80
9 Tenn. 78
5 FSU 65
12 Wisconsin 61
4 Xavier 74
13 Port. St. 67
6 UCLA 73
11 VCU 68
3 Villanova 72
14 American 62
7 Texas 66
10 Minn. 68
2 Duke 78
15 Bing. 66

Field of 32

Pitt
Ok. St.
FSU
Xavier
UCLA
Villanova
Minn.
Duke

Sweet 16

Pitt
Xavier
Villanova
Duke
Pitt
Villanova

Final 4

Pitt
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Pitt
96.9% 80.5% 63.0% 46.5% 25.3% 17.3%
6 UCLA
71.0% 37.4% 21.6% 10.4% 3.8% 1.7%
3 Villanova
85.8% 48.1% 27.1% 11.0% 3.4% 1.6%
2 Duke
85.1% 53.5% 27.0% 10.0% 3.8% 1.2%
4 Xavier
75.2% 43.1% 13.7% 7.0% 1.9% 0.9%
5 FSU
66.6% 35.0% 10.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.6%
10 Minn.
55.5% 25.6% 11.9% 4.3% 0.6% 0.2%
7 Texas
44.5% 17.7% 6.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
8 Ok. St.
58.5% 11.2% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
9 Tenn.
41.5% 7.2% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
11 VCU
29.0% 10.4% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Wisconsin
33.4% 13.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
13 Port. St.
24.8% 8.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
14 American
14.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Bing.
14.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
16 ETSU
3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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