The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

Midwest/Round 1

Round One

1 Louisville 74
16 Morehead 62
8 Ohio St. 71
9 Siena 68
5 Utah 70
12 Arizona 69
4 Wake 72
13 Cleve. St. 67
6 WVU 72
11 Dayton 64
3 Kansas 80
14 NDSU 73
7 BC 71
10 USC 69
2 Mich. St. 74
15 Rob. Morris 70

Field of 32

Louisville
Ohio St.
Utah
Wake
WVU
Kansas
BC
Mich. St.

Sweet 16

Louisville
Wake
Kansas
Mich. St.
Louisville
Kansas

Final 4

Louisville
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Louisville
93.3% 68.3% 43.8% 27.2% 14.6% 5.8%
3 Kansas
74.0% 52.2% 36.8% 22.0% 10.7% 5.1%
4 Wake
70.2% 40.3% 19.4% 9.4% 4.4% 1.2%
6 WVU
76.3% 31.9% 19.7% 9.8% 3.6% 1.2%
2 Mich. St.
66.9% 41.1% 18.4% 8.9% 2.6% 0.8%
7 BC
58.9% 29.9% 10.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
8 Ohio St.
62.2% 20.3% 10.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3%
5 Utah
53.9% 25.7% 10.2% 4.9% 1.4% 0.1%
9 Siena
37.8% 8.6% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
10 USC
41.1% 17.5% 6.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
11 Dayton
23.7% 4.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Arizona
46.1% 21.4% 8.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.0%
13 Cleve. St.
29.8% 12.6% 4.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
14 NDSU
26.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
15 Rob. Morris
33.1% 11.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Morehead
6.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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