Actual winners have been moved forward in the bracket and the tournament has been run another 10,000 times starting with the Sweet 16. Actual scores are listed next to games that have already been played. The score next to each Sweet 16 game is the average score from 10,000 runs of the game.

The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

To view the original predictions, please click on "Round 1" above. To simulate games for free, please go to WhatIfSports.com’s SimMatchup.

Midwest/Sweet 16

Round One

1 Louisville 74
16 Morehead 54
8 Ohio St. 72
9 Siena 74
5 Utah 71
12 Arizona 84
4 Wake 69
13 Cleve. St. 84
6 WVU 60
11 Dayton 68
3 Kansas 84
14 NDSU 74
7 BC 55
10 USC 72
2 Mich. St. 77
15 Rob. Morris 62

Field of 32

Louisville 79
Siena 72
Arizona 71
Cleve. St. 57
Dayton 43
Kansas 60
USC 69
Mich. St. 74

Sweet 16

Louisville 73
Arizona 67
Kansas 78
Mich. St. 74
Louisville
Kansas

Final 4

Kansas
Seed/Team Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
3 Kansas
68.7% 39.1% 18.0% 7.6%
1 Louisville
71.9% 38.4% 17.5% 6.4%
2 Michigan State
31.3% 12.0% 3.8% 1.0%
12 Arizona
28.1% 10.5% 2.9% 0.7%
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