The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

South/Round 1

Round One

1 UNC 89
16 Radford 70
8 LSU 70
9 Butler 67
5 Illinois 67
12 WKU 66
4 Gonzaga 73
13 Akron 58
6 Az. St. 70
11 Temple 64
3 Syracuse 73
14 SFA 60
7 Clemson 74
10 Michigan 66
2 Oklahoma 76
15 Morgan St. 59

Field of 32

UNC
LSU
Illinois
Gonzaga
Az. St.
Syracuse
Clemson
Oklahoma

Sweet 16

UNC
Gonzaga
Syracuse
Oklahoma
UNC
Oklahoma

Final 4

UNC
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 UNC
98.5% 84.6% 60.8% 42.1% 28.8% 21.6%
2 Oklahoma
96.5% 65.3% 43.0% 21.5% 12.0% 5.9%
4 Gonzaga
91.8% 78.6% 31.6% 15.8% 9.0% 4.8%
3 Syracuse
91.7% 52.5% 21.3% 7.4% 3.7% 2.0%
6 Az. St.
69.7% 36.2% 15.2% 4.4% 2.1% 1.1%
7 Clemson
79.7% 32.8% 18.2% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8%
8 LSU
61.5% 11.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
5 Illinois
52.1% 10.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
9 Butler
38.5% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
10 Michigan
20.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Temple
30.3% 9.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
12 WKU
47.9% 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
13 Akron
8.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 SFA
8.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Morgan St.
3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Radford
1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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