The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

West/Round 1

Round One

1 UConn 80
16 Chatt. 62
8 BYU 75
9 Tex. A&M 70
5 Purdue 68
12 NIU 62
4 Wash 74
13 Miss. St. 75
6 Marquette 73
11 Utah St. 75
3 Missouri 75
14 Cornell 73
7 Cal 73
10 Maryland 70
2 Memphis 76
15 CS-North 63

Field of 32

UConn
BYU
Purdue
Miss. St.
Utah St.
Missouri
Cal
Memphis

Sweet 16

UConn
Purdue
Utah St.
Memphis
UConn
Memphis

Final 4

UConn
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 UConn
97.1% 73.7% 59.9% 42.6% 28.8% 14.3%
2 Memphis
90.6% 72.1% 51.1% 25.7% 15.5% 7.1%
8 BYU
66.7% 20.1% 11.4% 4.9% 2.7% 1.2%
6 Marquette
43.4% 25.3% 9.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.6%
11 Utah St.
56.6% 35.0% 16.6% 6.6% 3.4% 0.6%
13 Miss. St.
54.0% 30.7% 9.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6%
4 Wash
46.0% 26.4% 7.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5%
5 Purdue
74.4% 36.7% 9.6% 5.0% 2.7% 0.3%
7 Cal
59.8% 16.0% 6.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
3 Missouri
59.5% 25.9% 9.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0%
9 Tex. A&M
33.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
10 Maryland
40.2% 8.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
12 NIU
25.6% 6.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Cornell
40.5% 13.8% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
15 CS-North
9.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Chatt.
2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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