The listed score is the average score from the 2,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

West/Round 1

Round One

1 Syracuse 77
16 Vermont 60
8 Gonzaga 68
9 Florida State 70
5 Butler 68
12 UTEP 72
4 Vanderbilt 72
13 Murray State 73
6 Xavier 73
11 Minnesota 74
3 Pittsburgh 75
14 Oakland 67
7 BYU 77
10 Florida 72
2 Kansas State 82
15 North Texas 69

Field of 32

Syracuse
Florida State
UTEP
Murray State
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
BYU
Kansas State

Sweet 16

Syracuse
Murray State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State
Syracuse
Kansas State

Final 4

Syracuse
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Syracuse
96.4% 77.5% 61.8% 45.5% 26.4% 17.6%
7 Brigham Young
68.4% 41.6% 24.2% 10.8% 4.3% 2.3%
2 Kansas State
89.1% 45.2% 23.7% 8.6% 3.6% 1.8%
3 Pittsburgh
79.9% 40.8% 20.1% 7.3% 2.1% 1.2%
11 Minnesota
50.3% 27.6% 13.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6%
6 Xavier
49.7% 27.1% 12.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4%
12 UTEP
65.0% 30.3% 8.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4%
13 Murray State
52.4% 31.3% 8.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
5 Butler
35.0% 11.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
9 Florida State
59.2% 14.5% 7.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2%
10 Florida
31.6% 12.2% 5.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 Vanderbilt
47.7% 27.2% 8.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1%
8 Gonzaga
40.8% 7.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
14 Oakland
20.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
15 North Texas
10.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Vermont
3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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