The listed score is the average score from the 1,001 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

East/Round 1

Round One

1 Indiana 81
16 LIU 66
8 NC St. 73
9 Temple 69
5 UNLV 69
12 California 62
4 Syracuse 71
13 Montana 60
6 Butler 67
11 Bucknell 62
3 Marquette 68
14 Davidson 65
7 Illinois 66
10 Colorado 64
2 Miami (FL) 67
15 Pacific 61

Field of 32

Indiana
NC St.
UNLV
Syracuse
Butler
Marquette
Illinois
Miami (FL)

Sweet 16

Indiana
Syracuse
Butler
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Miami (FL)

Final 4

Indiana
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Indiana
93.5% 71.5% 44.5% 32.7% 17.3% 10.5%
4 Syracuse
87.7% 54.5% 28.2% 20.3% 10.4% 4.7%
5 UNLV
73.7% 36.7% 14.9% 9.3% 3.5% 1.8%
2 Miami (FL)
74.5% 51.3% 32.7% 12.3% 4.1% 1.2%
6 Butler
68.5% 37.3% 18.5% 6.4% 1.9% 0.5%
8 North Carolina State
66.5% 19.0% 8.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4%
3 Marquette
60.2% 34.6% 19.3% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2%
9 Temple
33.5% 7.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
12 California
26.3% 6.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
7 Illinois
57.6% 23.6% 11.2% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0%
10 Colorado
42.4% 14.4% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
11 Bucknell
31.5% 10.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Montana
12.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Davidson
39.8% 18.1% 8.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
15 Pacific
25.5% 10.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Long Island
6.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
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