The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

Final Four/Round 1

Final Four

Louisville
Gonzaga
Kansas
Indiana

Championship

Gonzaga
Kansas

Champion

Kansas
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Kansas
96.3% 82.6% 62.2% 40.3% 28.7% 18.2%
1 Gonzaga
95.4% 65.5% 52.1% 40.1% 24.3% 14.7%
1 Louisville
95.1% 67.4% 54.6% 35.3% 21.7% 13.2%
1 Indiana
93.5% 71.5% 44.5% 32.7% 17.3% 10.5%
3 Florida
80.6% 50.0% 40.9% 21.0% 12.9% 6.5%
4 Syracuse
87.7% 54.5% 28.2% 20.3% 10.4% 4.7%
2 Duke
94.9% 53.8% 31.5% 15.5% 7.7% 3.9%
11 Minnesota
81.3% 39.6% 30.0% 14.7% 8.3% 3.5%
3 Michigan State
78.4% 50.0% 26.7% 12.9% 6.8% 2.9%
8 Pittsburgh
65.1% 24.5% 16.4% 12.1% 6.1% 2.9%
5 UNLV
73.7% 36.7% 14.9% 9.3% 3.5% 1.8%
7 Creighton
67.8% 35.1% 18.8% 8.4% 4.8% 1.5%
9 Missouri
57.9% 20.6% 14.3% 8.5% 3.9% 1.5%
2 Ohio State
70.3% 39.6% 23.8% 8.7% 3.3% 1.4%
2 Miami (FL)
74.5% 51.3% 32.7% 12.3% 4.1% 1.2%
4 Michigan
68.3% 37.4% 12.9% 6.9% 3.2% 1.1%
5 Virginia Commonwealth
65.4% 37.5% 12.4% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1%
5 Oklahoma State
66.1% 43.2% 12.5% 5.4% 2.5% 1.0%
7 Notre Dame
52.3% 26.9% 16.2% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9%
10 Iowa State
47.7% 24.4% 13.8% 5.1% 2.6% 0.8%
5 Wisconsin
57.9% 33.0% 10.6% 5.4% 2.4% 0.7%
4 Kansas State
58.1% 30.1% 7.4% 5.0% 1.3% 0.6%
11 Saint Mary's
51.1% 22.0% 9.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.6%
6 Butler
68.5% 37.3% 18.5% 6.4% 1.9% 0.5%
2 Georgetown
68.4% 39.5% 10.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.4%
8 North Carolina State
66.5% 19.0% 8.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4%
8 Colorado State
42.1% 11.7% 7.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
9 Wichita State
34.9% 9.5% 4.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
11 Belmont
52.9% 30.1% 14.2% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4%
3 New Mexico
59.1% 29.8% 13.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2%
3 Marquette
60.2% 34.6% 19.3% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2%
6 Memphis
48.9% 22.7% 8.8% 3.4% 1.7% 0.2%
7 San Diego State
53.9% 26.0% 7.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
8 North Carolina
53.3% 8.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%
10 Oklahoma
46.1% 23.7% 4.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
12 Oregon
33.9% 16.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
12 Akron
34.6% 13.6% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
13 New Mexico State
52.4% 22.3% 4.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
13 Boise State
41.9% 18.2% 5.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2%
9 Villanova
46.6% 8.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
9 Temple
33.5% 7.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
12 California
26.3% 6.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
13 South Dakota State
31.7% 11.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 Saint Louis
47.6% 18.4% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
6 UCLA
18.7% 3.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
6 Arizona
47.1% 25.4% 8.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0%
7 Illinois
57.6% 23.6% 11.2% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0%
10 Colorado
42.4% 14.4% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
10 Cincinnati
32.2% 10.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
11 Bucknell
31.5% 10.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Mississippi
42.1% 18.8% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
13 Montana
12.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Valparaiso
21.6% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Northwestern State
19.4% 6.6% 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
14 Harvard
40.9% 14.8% 5.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
14 Davidson
39.8% 18.1% 8.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
15 Pacific
25.5% 10.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Iona
29.7% 9.2% 4.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
15 Florida Gulf Coast
31.6% 10.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Albany
5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Western Kentucky
3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Southern University
4.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Long Island
6.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Liberty
4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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