The listed score is the average score from the 1,001 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

East/Round 1

Round One

1 Virginia 69
16 Coastal Car. 58
8 Memphis 75
9 Geo. Wash. 76
5 Cincinnati 66
12 Harvard 65
4 Michigan St. 77
13 Delaware 65
6 N. Carolina 74
11 Providence 73
3 Iowa State 75
14 North Carolina Central 66
7 Connecticut 69
10 St. Joseph's 68
2 Villanova 80
15 Milwaukee 64

Field of 32

Virginia
Geo. Wash.
Cincinnati
Michigan St.
N. Carolina
Iowa State
Connecticut
Villanova

Sweet 16

Virginia
Michigan St.
Iowa State
Villanova
Michigan St.
Villanova

Final 4

Villanova
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
2 Villanova
93.6% 65.3% 41.3% 24.4% 15.5% 8.2%
4 Michigan State
87.1% 62.9% 41.1% 23.4% 13.7% 7.5%
3 Iowa State
81.6% 52.5% 26.9% 14.1% 7.7% 3.2%
1 Virginia
85.9% 38.7% 16.0% 6.6% 2.8% 1.4%
9 George Washington
52.1% 30.3% 14.9% 7.6% 2.8% 1.4%
8 Memphis
47.9% 30.2% 14.8% 7.2% 3.1% 1.1%
6 North Carolina
50.7% 24.5% 8.3% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6%
7 Connecticut
55.6% 19.6% 9.4% 4.1% 2.3% 0.6%
5 Cincinnati
54.0% 18.7% 6.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4%
11 Providence
49.3% 18.2% 5.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
10 Saint Joseph's
44.4% 14.0% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2%
12 Harvard
46.0% 14.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1%
13 Delaware
12.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
14 North Carolina Central
18.4% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Milwaukee
6.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Coastal Carolina
14.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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