The listed score is the average score from the 1,001 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

South/Round 1

Round One

1 Florida 77
16 Mt. St. Mary's 62
8 Colorado 67
9 Pittsburgh 70
5 VCU 75
12 S. F. Austin 72
4 UCLA 76
13 Tulsa 68
6 Ohio State 70
11 Dayton 67
3 Syracuse 69
14 W. Michigan 60
7 New Mexico 72
10 Stanford 67
2 Kansas 79
15 E. Kentucky 71

Field of 32

Florida
Pittsburgh
VCU
UCLA
Ohio State
Syracuse
New Mexico
Kansas

Sweet 16

Florida
UCLA
Syracuse
Kansas
UCLA
Syracuse

Final 4

Syracuse
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
3 Syracuse
84.1% 57.4% 35.0% 20.7% 11.5% 5.1%
4 UCLA
78.3% 57.2% 33.9% 19.9% 10.7% 5.1%
2 Kansas
75.8% 46.7% 24.9% 14.5% 7.6% 4.4%
1 Florida
92.4% 54.9% 31.4% 15.7% 7.2% 3.1%
7 New Mexico
68.1% 35.7% 17.8% 8.8% 3.6% 1.9%
9 Pittsburgh
63.9% 31.8% 15.4% 6.2% 2.1% 1.1%
5 VCU
63.9% 24.1% 9.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4%
6 Ohio State
64.2% 26.7% 12.2% 4.5% 1.3% 0.2%
12 Stephen F. Austin
36.1% 10.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1%
8 Colorado
36.1% 12.3% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
10 Stanford
31.9% 10.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
11 Dayton
35.8% 11.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
13 Tulsa
21.7% 7.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
14 Western Michigan
15.9% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
15 Eastern Kentucky
24.2% 6.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Mount St. Mary's
7.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
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