The listed score is the average score from the 1,001 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

West/Round 1

Round One

1 Arizona 71
16 Weber State 64
8 Gonzaga 74
9 Oklahoma St. 75
5 Oklahoma 76
12 N. Dakota St. 75
4 San Diego St. 69
13 New Mexico St. 68
6 Baylor 70
11 Nebraska 61
3 Creighton 81
14 Louisiana 71
7 Oregon 80
10 BYU 79
2 Wisconsin 68
15 American 62

Field of 32

Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma
San Diego St.
Baylor
Creighton
Oregon
Wisconsin

Sweet 16

Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma
Baylor
Wisconsin
Oklahoma St.
Baylor

Final 4

Baylor
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
3 Creighton
83.5% 42.5% 26.7% 16.9% 8.4% 4.9%
6 Baylor
85.6% 50.4% 34.5% 21.8% 9.6% 4.9%
9 Oklahoma State
54.2% 34.9% 22.9% 12.3% 6.5% 3.4%
8 Gonzaga
45.8% 29.5% 17.8% 10.3% 4.6% 2.4%
1 Arizona
75.6% 31.1% 16.1% 7.5% 2.7% 1.2%
2 Wisconsin
69.9% 39.8% 15.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8%
4 San Diego State
54.1% 26.8% 11.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.8%
12 North Dakota State
48.1% 25.1% 11.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.8%
7 Oregon
54.7% 28.1% 11.9% 5.9% 2.2% 0.7%
5 Oklahoma
51.9% 26.9% 11.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.5%
10 BYU
45.3% 23.6% 7.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5%
13 New Mexico State
45.9% 21.3% 8.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2%
14 Louisiana
16.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
16 Weber State
24.4% 4.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
11 Nebraska
14.4% 4.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
15 American University
30.1% 8.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
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