Christina Aguilera's national anthem will go short
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From "Mean Joe" Greene taking a swig of a kid's Coke to three frogs croaking out "Bud-Weis-Er" to Larry Bird and Michael Jordan's "nothing but net" showdown to that "Milkaholic" baby hyping stocks online, the evolution of Super Bowl television ads may only be trumped, on occasion, by Las Vegas oddsmakers and the sassy prop bets they concoct.
Only in America can your grandma lay down a Benjamin on whether Fergie will be wearing a thong, G-string or bikini bottom when she first appears on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show. If she is right, grammie could pocket $100k and Fergie's career is extended another five years.
With that image in mind, Whatifsports.com has spent days running the numbers on several other
Super Bowl XLV prop bets, and here are our predictions.
| Prop Bet | Vegas Odds | WIS Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Coin Flip | Heads (-105) Tails (-105) | Heads - 50.17% |
| Aguilera's National Anthem | 1 minute, 52 seconds | 1 minute, 47 seconds |
| Gatorade Shower Color | Blue (10/1) | Yellow - 70.2% |
| Clear/Water (2/1) | ||
| Lime Green (5/1) | ||
| Orange (3/1) | ||
| Red (15/2) | ||
| Yellow (3/2) | ||
| Brett Favre On-Air Mentions | O/U - (2.5) | Over - 4 |
| QB Girlfriends on TV First | Jessica Szohr (Rodgers' girlfriend) - (-140) | Szohr |
| Ashley Harlan (Ben's fiance) - (EVEN) | ||
Prop Bet Analysis
Coin Flip - This prediction falls under the "tails never fails sabermetric theory of gravity" or TNFSTOG.
Aguilera's National Anthem - I spent way too much time breaking down national anthem film of Aguilera (no relation to Rick, former Minnesota Twins pitcher). Youtube.com provided five sample videos proving Christina can breeze through the anthem as fast as 1 minute, 21 seconds or milk the moment for up to 1:58 seconds. It took Carrie Underwood 1:45 to hit the last note prior to Super Bowl XLIV last year.
Gatorade Shower Color - I'm a visual learner. Here are the past five football Gatorade showers:
Gatorade Shower Note: The last picture is Gene Chizik's arm.
Brett Favre On-Air Mentions - Broadcaster on-air segues into Favre (in no particular order):
Packers general manager Ted Thompson rolling the dice, Aaron Rodgers stepping outside of his shadow, comparing Favre's Super Bowl XXXI stats with Rodgers' Super XLV stats, and if Green Bay is winning late in the fourth quarter.
QB Girlfriends on TV First - Factors to consider: if either quarterback gets injured during game and/or if Roethlisberger or Rodgers have an impact on the first touchdown of the game. Jessica Szohr is more "famous" as an actress on "Gossip Girl", but Ashley Harlan's engagement is more intriguing considering Ben's recent off-the-field incidents.
Our NFL Simulation engine's 2,500 Super Bowl XLV simulations also generated predictions for the following in-game prop bets.
| Prop Bet | Vegas Odds | WIS Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Score First | Steelers (-105) | Steelers - 51.8% |
| Packers (-125) | ||
| Score First TD | Steelers | Packers - 51.1% |
| Packers | ||
| First Player TD | Rashard Mendenhall | 14.8% |
| James Starks | 11.4% | |
| Greg Jennings | 9.7% | |
| Mike Wallace | 9.6% | |
| James Jones | 6.9% | |
| Donald Driver | 6.3% | |
| Brandon Jackson | 6.0% | |
| Hines Ward | 5.7% | |
| Over/Under (45.5) | Over - (-105) | Under - 66% |
| Under - (-115) | ||
| Super Bowl XLV MVP | Donald Driver (25/1) | 0.50% |
| Hines Ward (25/1) | 0.68% | |
| Greg Jennings (14/1) | 1.64% | |
| Mike Wallace (16/1) | 2.8% | |
| James Starks (14/1) | 4.5% | |
| Rashard Mendenhall (15/2) | 8.58% | |
| Ben Roethlisberger (7/2) | 20.93% | |
| Aaron Rodgers (3/2) | 32.71% | |
| Team | 1st Qtr. | 2nd Qtr. | 3rd Qtr. | 4th Qtr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 4.2 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 20.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.3 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 21.2 |
| Team | 1st Qtr. | 2nd Qtr. | 3rd Qtr. | 4th Qtr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 10 | 13 | 20 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| Team | Last 2 Minutes of Half | Last 2 Minutes of Game |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 50.0% | 30.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 46.7% | 31.4% |
Note: The odds that either team will score in the "Last 2 Minutes of the 1st Half" are:
Yes (-260) No (+200). This prop bet accounts for both teams.
With Super Bowl XLV being your last taste of football for the next seven months, Whatifsports.com is here with your daily fix. Create your ultimate Super Bowl roster using our Dream Teams feature. Take that roster and simulate it against ANY OTHER NFL TEAM IN HISTORY using our NFL SimMatchup tool.
Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.



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