College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions

Week 9 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
October 21, 2013

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Texas Tech at Oklahoma

The last time Texas Tech visited Oklahoma, the Red Raiders pulled out a 41-38 win that snapped the No. 3-ranked Sooners' 39-game home winning streak. While the 2011 matchup may be the most storied of the last decade, Texas Tech's victory wasn't an aberration. The Red Raiders have also netted recent wins against Oklahoma in 2009, 2007 and 2005.

Working on a new six-game home winning streak, the No. 17 Sooners have plenty to play for as they host undefeated and No. 10-ranked Texas Tech in the WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

The Sooners have assumed a different identity since the graduation of Landry Jones. With Jones under center, Oklahoma finished in the top five nationally in passing yards for three consecutive years. Now the team finds itself a run-first attack, evidenced by a passing offense that's ranked 99th in yards per game. Junior quarterback Blake Bell has taken the helm of the Sooners offense after serving as a goal-line specialist for two years. Bell earned the nickname "Belldozer" by using his large frame to push his way into the end zone as a token QB that was really more of a power back. He accumulated 24 touchdowns on just 104 carries during his freshman and sophomore campaigns.

Though Bell has proven himself as a capable passer in 2013, the Sooners' emphasis on the ground game has generated 230 yards per outing. Oklahoma is averaging the 17th-most rush yards in the nation, a far cry from Landry's tenure when the school never ranked better than 50th. Leading the way are Brennan Clay (496 yards and 3 touchdowns on 79 carries) and Damien Williams (315 yards and three touchdowns on 78 carries).

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma resistance has been strong, limiting opponents to 293 yards and 17.1 points per game (both 9th nationally). It's the best effort by the unit since the 2009 team held the opposition to 273 yards and 14.5 points per game. However, with the high-octane offense of Texas Tech, as well as Baylor and Oklahoma State still on the schedule, the stiffest tests remain.

In terms of offense, new Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury has taken over where Tommy Tuberville left off. Tuberville's teams averaged 34.8 points per game during his three-year stretch in Lubbock, good enough for 16th nationally during that timeframe. This year, the Red Raiders are averaging 41.4 points per contest, 14th in the nation. Where Kingsbury's staff has set themselves apart from the predecessor's regime is on the defensive side of the ball. Texas Tech had been a sieve under Tuberville, surrendering 34 points per game (108th nationally) during his three years as head coach. Though the sample size is small, the early returns have been promising with Kingsbury and defensive coordinators Matt Wallerstedt and Mike Smith, as the Red Raiders are 16th nationally in points allowed, giving up just 18.7 points per game.

Any discussion of the Red Raiders cannot overlook the team's fortuitous schedule, however. Their six FBS opponents have a combined 15-24 record and Texas Tech's marquee win, a 20-10 victory over then-ranked TCU, looks less impressive now that the Horned Frogs have dropped to 3-4.

The remaining schedule is robust, with the five opponents sharing a 23-8 record and three ranked teams, including the Sooners, on the horizon. Should the Red Raiders escape Oklahoma with a win, they'll have the luxury of hosting their other ranked foes, Oklahoma State and Baylor.

So who wins this Big 12 bout? Using the WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine, we "played" the matchup 101 times and it's the Sooners coming out on top 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 27-25. For the rest of this week's predictions, check below:

College Football Week 9
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
North Carolina State Wolfpack12.917Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles87.132 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons24.319Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes75.728 
Duke Blue Devils32.718Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies67.324 
Boston College Eagles45.524Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels54.526 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets65.322Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers34.717 
Clemson Tigers66.325Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins33.719 
Penn State Nittany Lions19.819Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes80.230 
Northwestern Wildcats44.621Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes55.422 
Nebraska Cornhuskers63.425Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers36.621 
Michigan State Spartans76.725Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini23.317 
Eastern Michigan Eagles14.919Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies85.133 
Miami (OH) RedHawks19.816Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats80.228 
Toledo Rockets42.625Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons57.426 
Buffalo Bulls52.522Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes47.519 
Western Michigan Broncos67.325Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen32.719 
Ball State Cardinals74.333Boxscore
@ Akron Zips25.724 
California Golden Bears22.822Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies77.228 
UCLA Bruins24.821Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks75.229 
Utah Utes49.523Boxscore
@ USC Trojans50.524 
Stanford Cardinal56.425Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers43.623 
Arizona Wildcats66.328Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes33.723 
Furman Paladins 5.07Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers95.045 
Idaho Vandals10.916Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels89.131 
Florida Atlantic Owls10.915Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers89.130 
Tennessee Volunteers24.320Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide75.730 
Vanderbilt Commodores32.222Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies67.827 
Kentucky Wildcats38.622Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs61.426 
South Carolina Gamecocks43.623Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers56.424 
Abilene Christian Wildcats 5.08Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies95.036 
Boise State Broncos43.622Boxscore
@ BYU Cougars56.424 
Pittsburgh Panthers63.424Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen36.620 
Texas Tech Red Raiders47.525Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners52.527 
West Virginia Mountaineers47.525Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats52.526 
Texas Longhorns52.522Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs47.521 
Baylor Bears77.230Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks22.820 
Oklahoma State Cowboys80.229Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones19.819 
UTEP Miners36.620Boxscore
@ Rice Owls63.427 
UAB Blazers38.125Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners61.929 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane44.621Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave55.423 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs52.525Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers47.523 
Marshall Thundering Herd73.330Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders26.724 
North Texas Mean Green72.827Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles27.218 
UNLV Rebels44.624Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack55.426 
Wyoming Cowboys49.528Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans50.529 
Colorado State Rams66.824Boxscore
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors33.220 
Fresno State Bulldogs81.230Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs18.821 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish81.726Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons18.315 
Georgia State Panthers10.917Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks89.132 
Troy Trojans44.124Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55.926 
South Alabama Jaguars56.424Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats43.622 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns57.424Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves42.622 
Connecticut Huskies19.316Boxscore
@ UCF Knights80.726 
Temple Owls33.719Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs66.325 
Houston Cougars47.025Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights53.026 
Louisville Cardinals81.230Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls18.817 
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Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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