Week 5 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 15th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 5.

Game of the Week: #12 Illinois 30 (3-1) @ Penn State 21 (4-1)
Penn State enters this game undefeated and with dreams of competing with Ohio State for the Big Ten and national championship. Juice Williams and Illinois, which come in at 2-1 after losing to Missouri in the opener, put an end to those aspirations by winning 77% of the time by an average score of 30-21 in Happy Valley.

Week 5 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Rhode Island @ Boston College954-35
Marshall @ W. Virginia9510-42
Morgan State @ Rutgers955-40
Minn. @ Ohio State958-47
Troy @ Oklahoma State9514-36
Central Arkansas @ Tulsa955-43
Virginia Military @ Ohio955-36
Weber State @ Utah954-41
Mississippi State @ LSU958-36
Army @ Texas A&M9510-37
TCU @ Oklahoma9517-35
Navy @ WF93.416-38
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky93.48-32
San Jose State @ Hawaii93.49-30
Alabama @ Georgia91.814-38
Mississippi @ Florida91.816-32
UAB @ S. Carolina91.811-36
Colorado St. @ California90.220-38
LA-Laf @ Kansas State86.922-34
Fla. Int. @ Toledo85.217-32
Maryland @ Clemson83.617-35
North Texas @ Rice80.318-30
Kent St. @ Ball State80.321-35
Stanford @ Washington80.320-34
Buffalo @ C. Michigan67.226-39
Bowling Green @ Wyoming67.216-25
Northwestern @ Iowa65.618-27
Colorado @ Florida State63.921-29
Tennessee @ Auburn55.718-24
Michigan State @ Indiana50.824-30
Houston @ East Carolina49.229-29
Arkansas St. @ Memphis45.924-24
Connecticut @ Louisville44.335-35
W. Michigan @ Temple42.621-20
Northern Illinois @ E. Michigan39.323-22
Purdue @ Notre Dame37.726-21
Virginia @ Duke31.117-16
SMU @ Tulane31.133-27
Fresno State @ UCLA31.133-29
North Carolina @ Miami (FL)24.624-17
Idaho @ San Diego State24.631-20
Illinois @ Penn State2330-21
Nevada @ UNLV21.338-31
Wisconsin @ Michigan19.729-19
Virginia Tech @ Nebraska1827-17
New Mexico @ New Mexico State16.427-16
Oregon @ Washington St.13.133-17
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse9.832-16
South Florida @ NC St.536-11
UCF @ UTEP530-15
USC @ Oregon State536-8
Cincinnati @ Akron535-10

Updated FBS Standings through Week 5

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson5 - 05 - 0
Atlantic CoastWF4 - 04 - 0
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech5 - 04 - 1
Atlantic CoastBoston College3 - 13 - 1
Atlantic CoastFlorida State3 - 13 - 1
Atlantic CoastMaryland3 - 23 - 1
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina3 - 13 - 1
Atlantic CoastDuke1 - 32 - 2
Atlantic CoastGA Tech2 - 22 - 2
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)2 - 22 - 2
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 22 - 2
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 41 - 4
Big EastW. Virginia4 - 04 - 0
Big EastConnecticut5 - 04 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida4 - 14 - 1
Big EastCincinnati3 - 13 - 1
Big EastLouisville3 - 13 - 1
Big EastPittsburgh4 - 03 - 1
Big EastRutgers2 - 23 - 1
Big EastSyracuse2 - 32 - 3
Big TenOhio State5 - 05 - 0
Big TenIowa4 - 14 - 1
Big TenPenn State4 - 14 - 1
Big TenIllinois3 - 13 - 1
Big TenIndiana4 - 03 - 1
Big TenPurdue4 - 03 - 1
Big TenWisconsin4 - 03 - 1
Big TenMichigan State2 - 33 - 2
Big TenMinn.3 - 23 - 2
Big TenNorthwestern4 - 13 - 2
Big TenMichigan3 - 12 - 2
Big TwelveKansas4 - 04 - 0
Big TwelveOklahoma4 - 04 - 0
Big TwelveTexas Tech4 - 04 - 0
Big TwelveTexas4 - 04 - 0
Big TwelveKansas State3 - 13 - 1
Big TwelveMissouri4 - 03 - 1
Big TwelveNebraska3 - 13 - 1
Big TwelveOklahoma State4 - 03 - 1
Big TwelveTexas A&M2 - 23 - 1
Big TwelveBaylor1 - 32 - 2
Big TwelveColorado2 - 22 - 2
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 32 - 2
Conference USATulsa3 - 13 - 1
Conference USAUCF3 - 13 - 1
Conference USAEast Carolina2 - 33 - 2
Conference USAHouston4 - 13 - 2
Conference USARice3 - 23 - 2
Conference USASMU3 - 23 - 2
Conference USAS. Miss3 - 12 - 2
Conference USAMarshall2 - 32 - 3
Conference USAMemphis1 - 42 - 3
Conference USATulane0 - 41 - 3
Conference USAUTEP1 - 31 - 3
Conference USAUAB1 - 41 - 4
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame2 - 22 - 2
Independents (FBS)Navy2 - 32 - 3
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky2 - 32 - 3
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 31 - 3
Mid-AmericanBall State4 - 13 - 2
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan3 - 23 - 2
Mid-AmericanKent St.3 - 23 - 2
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan4 - 13 - 2
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)2 - 22 - 2
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois2 - 22 - 2
Mid-AmericanToledo2 - 22 - 2
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan1 - 42 - 3
Mid-AmericanOhio1 - 42 - 3
Mid-AmericanTemple2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green0 - 41 - 3
Mid-AmericanAkron1 - 41 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo1 - 41 - 4
Mountain WestTCU4 - 14 - 1
Mountain WestUtah4 - 14 - 1
Mountain WestBrigham Young4 - 03 - 1
Mountain WestNew Mexico3 - 23 - 2
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 23 - 2
Mountain WestAir Force2 - 22 - 2
Mountain WestColorado St.1 - 32 - 2
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 32 - 3
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 31 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon4 - 14 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.3 - 13 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona3 - 13 - 1
Pacific-10California4 - 03 - 1
Pacific-10USC2 - 12 - 1
Pacific-10Oregon State2 - 22 - 2
Pacific-10UCLA1 - 32 - 2
Pacific-10Washington St.2 - 32 - 3
Pacific-10Washington1 - 31 - 3
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 41 - 4
SoutheasternGeorgia5 - 05 - 0
SoutheasternLSU5 - 05 - 0
SoutheasternFlorida4 - 04 - 0
SoutheasternS. Carolina4 - 14 - 1
SoutheasternKentucky3 - 13 - 1
SoutheasternAlabama3 - 23 - 2
SoutheasternAuburn4 - 13 - 2
SoutheasternMississippi State2 - 33 - 2
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 23 - 2
SoutheasternArkansas2 - 22 - 2
SoutheasternTennessee2 - 22 - 2
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 41 - 3
Sun BeltArkansas St.3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic2 - 22 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Monroe2 - 22 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Laf0 - 41 - 3
Sun BeltMid Tenn1 - 31 - 3
Sun BeltTroy1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 40 - 4
Sun BeltNorth Texas0 - 40 - 4
Western AthleticFresno State3 - 13 - 1
Western AthleticBoise State2 - 12 - 1
Western AthleticIdaho3 - 23 - 2
Western AthleticHawaii2 - 22 - 2
Western AthleticNevada2 - 22 - 2
Western AthleticNew Mexico State1 - 32 - 2
Western AthleticSan Jose State2 - 32 - 3
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech1 - 21 - 2
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 40 - 4

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