Week 6 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 16th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 6.

Game of the Week: #22 Arizona State 30.1 (4-1) @ California 29.9 (3-2)
Week 6 is another week with very few close games, but this Pac-10 shootout is definitely worth watching. Winning just 59% of the time and by only 0.2 points in average score, Arizona State finds itself on top of the conference after five games - it's only loss coming to #2 Georgia earlier in the year. Quarterbacks Rudy Carpenter and Nate Longshore will be hurling the ball all over the field, but this result comes down to the team with the better redzone defense, and that belongs to the Sun Devils. ASU gets USC next week.

Week 6 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Western Kentucky @ Virginia Tech958-39
San Diego State @ TCU958-37
Oregon @ USC959-35
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State9511-36
Stanford @ Notre Dame9511-30
Northern Illinois @ Tennessee9518-36
E. Michigan @ Bowling Green88.513-33
Rutgers @ W. Virginia86.922-33
SMU @ UCF86.917-32
Fla. Int. @ North Texas85.213-28
Hawaii @ Fresno State83.621-32
Oregon State @ Utah8213-27
Washington St. @ UCLA78.714-32
Kentucky @ Alabama78.711-27
Akron @ Kent St.75.416-27
Rice @ Tulsa73.826-39
Army @ Tulane72.112-26
Iowa @ Michigan State70.516-27
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State70.531-35
LA-Laf @ LA-Monroe67.223-34
Pittsburgh @ South Florida65.619-27
Washington @ Arizona63.926-35
Temple @ Miami (OH)60.715-23
UNLV @ Colorado St.60.727-33
Duke @ GA Tech5916-24
UTEP @ S. Miss5919-30
Wyoming @ New Mexico5913-18
Navy @ Air Force57.425-32
Penn State @ Purdue54.123-30
Connecticut @ North Carolina50.824-30
Ohio @ W. Michigan50.818-25
S. Carolina @ Mississippi47.525-24
Arizona St. @ California4130-30
Memphis @ UAB32.823-20
Florida State @ Miami (FL)31.124-18
Texas Tech @ Kansas State26.233-28
Illinois @ Michigan2329-23
Ball State @ Toledo1837-28
Indiana @ Minn.14.838-28
Florida Atlantic @ Mid Tenn14.830-19
Texas @ Colorado13.139-22
Florida @ Arkansas13.137-23
Boston College @ NC St.9.826-13
Maryland @ Virginia9.825-16
Nevada @ Idaho8.234-30
Cincinnati @ Marshall536-15
Missouri @ Nebraska534-23
Ohio State @ Wisconsin536-15
Kansas @ Iowa State535-12
Oklahoma @ Baylor539-15
Auburn @ Vanderbilt528-8
Brigham Young @ Utah State534-12

Updated FBS Standings through Week 6

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson5 - 05 - 0
Atlantic CoastWF4 - 04 - 0
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech6 - 05 - 1
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 14 - 1
Atlantic CoastMaryland4 - 24 - 2
Atlantic CoastDuke1 - 43 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State4 - 13 - 2
Atlantic CoastGA Tech3 - 23 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina4 - 13 - 2
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)2 - 32 - 3
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 32 - 3
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 51 - 5
Big EastW. Virginia5 - 05 - 0
Big EastSouth Florida5 - 15 - 1
Big EastCincinnati4 - 14 - 1
Big EastPittsburgh4 - 14 - 1
Big EastLouisville3 - 13 - 1
Big EastConnecticut5 - 14 - 2
Big EastRutgers2 - 33 - 2
Big EastSyracuse2 - 32 - 3
Big TenOhio State6 - 06 - 0
Big TenIllinois4 - 14 - 1
Big TenIndiana5 - 04 - 1
Big TenIowa4 - 24 - 2
Big TenMichigan State3 - 34 - 2
Big TenPenn State4 - 24 - 2
Big TenNorthwestern4 - 13 - 2
Big TenPurdue5 - 03 - 2
Big TenWisconsin4 - 13 - 2
Big TenMinn.3 - 33 - 3
Big TenMichigan3 - 22 - 2
Big TwelveKansas5 - 05 - 0
Big TwelveOklahoma5 - 05 - 0
Big TwelveKansas State3 - 24 - 1
Big TwelveMissouri5 - 04 - 1
Big TwelveOklahoma State5 - 04 - 1
Big TwelveTexas Tech5 - 04 - 1
Big TwelveTexas5 - 04 - 1
Big TwelveNebraska3 - 23 - 2
Big TwelveTexas A&M2 - 33 - 2
Big TwelveBaylor1 - 42 - 3
Big TwelveColorado2 - 32 - 3
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 42 - 3
Conference USATulsa4 - 14 - 1
Conference USAUCF4 - 14 - 1
Conference USAEast Carolina2 - 33 - 2
Conference USAHouston4 - 13 - 2
Conference USAS. Miss4 - 13 - 2
Conference USAMemphis2 - 43 - 3
Conference USARice3 - 33 - 3
Conference USASMU3 - 33 - 3
Conference USAMarshall2 - 42 - 4
Conference USAUAB1 - 52 - 4
Conference USATulane1 - 41 - 4
Conference USAUTEP1 - 41 - 4
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame3 - 23 - 2
Independents (FBS)Navy2 - 43 - 3
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky2 - 42 - 4
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 41 - 3
Mid-AmericanBall State5 - 14 - 2
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan5 - 14 - 2
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan3 - 23 - 2
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)3 - 23 - 2
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 23 - 3
Mid-AmericanOhio1 - 53 - 3
Mid-AmericanTemple2 - 43 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green1 - 42 - 3
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanToledo2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanAkron1 - 52 - 4
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan1 - 52 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo1 - 41 - 4
Mountain WestUtah5 - 15 - 1
Mountain WestBrigham Young5 - 04 - 1
Mountain WestTCU5 - 14 - 2
Mountain WestAir Force3 - 23 - 2
Mountain WestNew Mexico4 - 23 - 3
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 33 - 3
Mountain WestColorado St.2 - 32 - 3
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 42 - 4
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 41 - 4
Pacific-10Arizona St.4 - 14 - 1
Pacific-10USC3 - 13 - 1
Pacific-10Oregon4 - 24 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona4 - 13 - 2
Pacific-10California4 - 13 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon State2 - 32 - 3
Pacific-10UCLA2 - 32 - 3
Pacific-10Washington1 - 42 - 3
Pacific-10Washington St.2 - 42 - 4
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 51 - 5
SoutheasternGeorgia5 - 05 - 0
SoutheasternLSU5 - 05 - 0
SoutheasternFlorida5 - 04 - 1
SoutheasternAlabama4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternAuburn5 - 14 - 2
SoutheasternS. Carolina5 - 14 - 2
SoutheasternKentucky3 - 23 - 2
SoutheasternMississippi State2 - 33 - 2
SoutheasternTennessee3 - 23 - 2
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternArkansas2 - 32 - 3
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 51 - 4
Sun BeltArkansas St.3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Monroe3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Laf0 - 51 - 4
Sun BeltMid Tenn1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltTroy1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 50 - 5
Western AthleticBoise State3 - 13 - 1
Western AthleticFresno State4 - 13 - 2
Western AthleticHawaii2 - 33 - 2
Western AthleticNevada3 - 23 - 2
Western AthleticIdaho3 - 33 - 3
Western AthleticNew Mexico State1 - 32 - 2
Western AthleticSan Jose State2 - 32 - 3
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech1 - 31 - 3
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 50 - 5

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