WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Dallas Cowboys | +1 | 88.9% | 29.3 | 16.2 |
| 2. | New York Giants | +9 | 71.5% | 24.8 | 16.9 |
| 3. | Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 69.7% | 26.0 | 20.4 |
| 4. | Green Bay Packers | +5 | 69.5% | 23.9 | 19.4 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh Steelers | +5 | 69.5% | 25.4 | 17.6 |
| 6. | Philadelphia Eagles | +8 | 67.3% | 24.2 | 17.1 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | +5 | 62.7% | 21.6 | 21.3 |
| 8. | Minnesota Vikings | -4 | 59.7% | 21.8 | 19.2 |
| 9. | New England Patriots | -8 | 57.6% | 20.7 | 18.3 |
| 10. | Carolina Panthers | +6 | 57.4% | 22.9 | 18.0 |
| 11. | Tennessee Titans | +8 | 56.6% | 21.5 | 20.0 |
| 12. | San Diego Chargers | -7 | 56.3% | 24.5 | 20.1 |
| 13. | Cleveland Browns | -6 | 55.6% | 22.4 | 22.7 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | +6 | 55.6% | 24.6 | 22.1 |
| 15. | New York Jets | -9 | 55.6% | 25.0 | 22.2 |
| 16. | Chicago Bears | +10 | 51.9% | 21.0 | 23.2 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
| 17. | Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 49.5% | 23.7 | 22.3 |
| 18. | Denver Broncos | +11 | 49.2% | 21.9 | 24.3 |
| 19. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -6 | 45.0% | 20.7 | 19.3 |
| 20. | Atlanta Falcons | +11 | 44.0% | 20.8 | 26.7 |
| 21. | Seattle Seahawks | -13 | 40.8% | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| 22. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1 | 39.8% | 20.7 | 22.5 |
| 23. | Miami Dolphins | +2 | 38.4% | 20.9 | 24.6 |
| 24. | Detroit Lions | +3 | 37.6% | 19.3 | 25.9 |
| 25. | Kansas City Chiefs | +7 | 37.3% | 19.9 | 24.7 |
| 26. | Houston Texans | -3 | 35.5% | 21.8 | 23.3 |
| 27. | San Francisco 49ers | -5 | 35.5% | 21.0 | 24.3 |
| 28. | Washington Redskins | -13 | 31.1% | 19.1 | 22.6 |
| 29. | Baltimore Ravens | -5 | 30.3% | 17.9 | 20.9 |
| 30. | Oakland Raiders | 0 | 28.9% | 18.7 | 27.4 |
| 31. | Cincinnati Bengals | -13 | 28.9% | 18.5 | 29.6 |
| 32. | St. Louis Rams | -4 | 22.7% | 17.2 | 28.6 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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