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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: #3 Buffalo Bills 23 @ #19 Miami Dolphins 25
All of the sudden, this is an important divisional game. It is also one of the few close games of the weekend. Despite being #3 in our Power Rankings, Buffalo faces a tough matchup on the road in Miami. These teams are actually fairly similar with efficient quarterbacks, two adequate running backs and better-than-average defenses. The two differences that stick out and give Miami the edge are Ronnie Brown and turnover margin. For the Dolphins to win, Brown will have to have a big game. He is the most dynamic player on either team and, as the Patriots found out, he can essentially beat a team by himself. As good as Trent Edwards is at making the right decisions, it is surprising to see that the team is even on the season in turnover margin. Six fumbles and an injury to cornerback Terrence McGee have hurt. On the flip side, Miami has only turned the ball over four times (to eight by its opponents). The Dolphins have the best playmaker and the best chance to win the turnover battle. If the Bills are going to win, they will have to exploit Miami's secondary deep, likely with a pass to Lee Evans. Slightly more often than not (59% of the time), the Dolphins succeed with their game-plan of limiting mistakes and win by an average score of 25-23.
Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.
Week 8 Scores for Every NFL Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score||Kansas City @ New York||88.5||18-32||Boxscore||Oakland @ Baltimore||85.2||11-22||Boxscore||Atlanta @ Philadelphia||83.1||17-30||Boxscore||Cincinnati @ Houston||80.9||17-27||Boxscore||New York @ Pittsburgh||79.8||16-26||Boxscore||Indianapolis @ Tennessee||73.2||17-26||Boxscore||Cleveland @ Jacksonville||71.1||16-23||Boxscore||Seattle @ San Francisco||70.8||17-25||Boxscore||St. Louis @ New England||69.1||21-28||Boxscore||San Diego @ New Orleans||62.4||24-28||Boxscore||Arizona @ Carolina||59.2||22-25||Boxscore||Buffalo @ Miami||59||23-25||Boxscore||Tampa Bay @ Dallas||46.9||26-21||Boxscore||Washington @ Detroit||15||31-16||Boxscore|
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!