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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Games of the Week: #5 Oklahoma State 36 @ #1 Texas Tech 32
Writing an explanation as to why our top team will lose to our fifth-ranked team at home may not seem easy, particularly when "hangover" is not programmed into the sim, but Oklahoma State is simply a tough matchup for Texas Tech (tougher than Texas). The Cowboys are a complete offensive team with one of the best ground games in the country to go with a dynamic playmaker at receiver in Dez Bryant. They also consistently win the turnover battle (as does Texas Tech, but unlike Texas). 274 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry could go a long way toward keeping Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree off of the field, especially if Oklahoma State can get an early lead. With an almost non-existent running game, Texas was able to expose Texas Tech deep (don't forget Jordan Shipley's early drop). With Kendall Hunter and company keeping the Red Raiders honest, Bryant could have a huge day in this spotlight game. Last Saturday's Big 12 showcase was an all-time great. "On paper" (in the computer), this one shapes up to be just as close and exciting. Oklahoma State adds even more chaos to BCS race by winning 54.2% of the time by an average score of 36-32.

#7 Alabama 24 vs. #20 LSU 19
Like every team in the SEC but Florida, neither of these teams is as good as its ranking in the BCS; yet, this game could definitely still mean quite a bit in the BCS title race. Both of these teams are looking to run the ball and stop the run - and they usually succeed in doing so. In this case, Alabama is a little better at both of those things and LSU completely lacks the passing game to overcome that disparity with a big play or two. Homefield advantage is all that keeps this close. Alabama wins 53.2% of the time and by and average score of 24-19.

Others
#2 Penn State is on the road against a very talented, yet inconsistent #27 Iowa team. The Nittany Lions win 69.7% of the time and by and average score of 29-20, to make the chance that all three BCS unbeatens lose this weekend 7.7%. However, the chance that all three undefeated BCS teams win this weekend is just 17.3%, which leaves a 75% likelihood that at least one of those three loses. Elsewhere, #14 Utah sneaks by #12 TCU in Salt Lake City 61.2% of the time, #3 USC blows out #19 Cal 33-9 on average, #17 UNC edges #18 Georgia Tech at home 61.7% of the time and #22 West Virginia defeats #26 Cincinnati by two touchdowns in Morgantown.

Week 11 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
San Diego State @ Brigham Young	95	10-36
California @ USC	95	9-33
Tennessee-Martin @ Auburn	95	4-33
Utah State @ Boise State	95	11-31
Baylor @ Texas	91.5	22-40
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	91	11-28
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic	91	15-34
Michigan @ Minn.	90	12-28
Kansas State @ Missouri	90	25-34
Western Kentucky @ Troy	88.1	13-27
Army @ Rice	86.6	15-31
Wyoming @ Tennessee	83.6	8-22
NC St. @ Duke	80.6	14-24
Colorado St. @ Air Force	80.6	16-30
Cincinnati @ W. Virginia	79.6	17-31
Marshall @ East Carolina	79.6	16-26
Louisville @ Pittsburgh	78.1	19-28
LA-Monroe @ Mid Tenn	76.6	17-28
Tulane @ Houston	75.6	22-32
UTEP @ LA-Laf	72.6	26-36
Syracuse @ Rutgers	72.1	20-28
Northern Illinois @ Ball State	71.6	21-30
Virginia @ WF	71.1	13-20
Arkansas @ S. Carolina	71.1	16-25
Toledo @ Akron	69.7	20-27
Purdue @ Michigan State	67.7	16-23
Stanford @ Oregon	65.7	17-27
Kansas @ Nebraska	64.7	27-34
Louisiana Tech @ San Jose State	63.2	12-18
Bowling Green @ Ohio	62.7	17-23
GA Tech @ North Carolina	61.7	19-24
Clemson @ Florida State	61.2	18-24
TCU @ Utah	61.2	17-22
Iowa State @ Colorado	59.7	17-21
New Mexico @ UNLV	59.2	22-26
Memphis @ SMU	50.7	26-28
Hawaii @ New Mexico State	47.3	24-21
Alabama @ LSU	46.8	24-19
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	45.8	36-32
Wisconsin @ Indiana	39.3	27-21
Notre Dame @ Boston College	37.8	20-14
Illinois @ W. Michigan	36.3	32-24
Maryland @ Virginia Tech	35.3	24-17
Ohio State @ Northwestern	33.3	21-13
Penn State @ Iowa	30.3	29-20
Nevada @ Fresno State	30.3	37-29
Arkansas St. @ Fla. Int.	27.4	25-15
S. Miss @ UCF	21.9	25-12
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M	16.4	37-22
Arizona St. @ Washington	10	29-14
Oregon State @ UCLA	8.5	30-12
Georgia @ Kentucky	5.5	33-11
Arizona @ Washington St.	5	35-7
Florida @ Vanderbilt	5	38-9

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