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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Games of the Week: #20 BYU 24 @ #19 Air Force 32
This is your marquee game of Week 12. With many top teams like Texas Tech and Oklahoma on byes - and others like Alabama (vs. Mississippi State), Penn State (vs. Indiana), Boise State (@ Idaho) and Utah (@ San Diego State) essentially getting bye weeks, there are just two games that feature two of our top 25. The other is #16 North Carolina @ #25 Maryland, but we'd much rather talk about the Mountain West than the ACC. Not only does this game feature two of the nation's top twenty teams, the outcome from the simulations could be viewed as an upset by many fans. Air Force is 8-2 on the season, losing both of its games (Utah and Navy) by a touchdown or less. Led by a rushing attack that averages 275.4 yards per game and ranking eighth in the country in turnover margin, the Falcons are outscoring their opponents 29-17. BYU, on the other hand, has struggled on defense recently, allowing 32, 35 and 42 to TCU, UNLV and Colorado State respectively. Despite being 9-1 overall, the Cougars have actually given up more total points in their four road games than they have scored. Points will be posted, but expect Air Force to dictate tempo and dominate with its ground game. The Falcons win 68.7% of the time and by an average score of 32-24. Every one of our top 14 teams, except for #6 Texas (80.6% to win at Kansas), is either on a bye or a 95%+ favorite to win this weekend. Do not expect much shakeup in the important standings/rankings until at least Week 13 when #1 Texas Tech plays at #2 Oklahoma, Michigan State faces #9 Penn State, #10 Boise State goes to Nevada, #7 Ball State plays at Central Michigan, #21 Cincinnati and Pitt fight for a possible BCS berth, #17 Florida State faces #25 Maryland, #14 TCU hosts #19 Air Force, #13 Utah takes on #20 BYU in the "Holy War," #15 Ohio State plays Michigan in a rivalry game and Miami (FL) travels to #18 Georgia Tech.

Week 12 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Indiana @ Penn State	95	10-33
Purdue @ Iowa	95	8-35
Washington St. @ Arizona St.	95	6-36
LA-Monroe @ Mississippi	95	15-34
Mississippi State @ Alabama	95	6-33
S. Carolina @ Florida	95	11-37
San Jose State @ Nevada	92.5	12-32
Minn. @ Wisconsin	91	12-30
Notre Dame @ Navy	90	16-36
Boston College @ Florida State	86.1	10-26
Texas A&M @ Baylor	86.1	20-36
SMU @ UTEP	80.6	22-35
Toledo @ W. Michigan	80.1	18-31
Duke @ Clemson	79.6	11-24
Troy @ LSU	79.6	15-27
UCF @ Marshall	77.6	8-20
New Mexico State @ Fresno State	75.1	26-37
Rutgers @ South Florida	73.1	20-32
Utah State @ Louisiana Tech	70.1	16-25
California @ Oregon State	69.2	15-24
Brigham Young @ Air Force	68.7	24-32
Wyoming @ UNLV	68.7	15-24
UAB @ Tulane	65.7	21-29
C. Michigan @ Northern Illinois	63.7	20-26
Northwestern @ Michigan	59.2	13-20
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)	57.7	14-19
Buffalo @ Akron	54.7	25-29
LA-Laf @ Florida Atlantic	53.7	25-31
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	49.8	16-16
East Carolina @ S. Miss	46.3	23-21
Mid Tenn @ Western Kentucky	46.3	19-18
Temple @ Kent St.	46.3	20-22
Arizona @ Oregon	43.8	24-23
New Mexico @ Colorado St.	40.8	24-20
Tulsa @ Houston	31.8	33-38
UCLA @ Washington	30.8	20-15
Ohio State @ Illinois	27.4	27-20
Nebraska @ Kansas State	22.9	39-32
WF @ NC St.	19.9	19-12
Texas @ Kansas	19.4	38-28
North Carolina @ Maryland	18.4	29-19
Connecticut @ Syracuse	12.4	30-15
Cincinnati @ Louisville	8.5	31-14
Missouri @ Iowa State	5	34-17
Oklahoma State @ Colorado	5	34-11
Ball State @ Miami (OH)	5	35-10
Utah @ San Diego State	5	39-7
USC @ Stanford	5	33-8
Georgia @ Auburn	5	37-11
Boise State @ Idaho	5	34-8

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