Playoff Odds (plus boxscores from every Wild Card game)
December 30th, 2008
Each Tuesday morning during the season, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. For our playoff preview, we have simulated all the way through the playoffs 10,001 times, giving us odds for every team winning in each round. Those odds as well as boxscores for the four upcoming Wild Card round games are below. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here. The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
NFL Playoffs (Winning Percentages from 10,001 simulations)
| Team | WC Win% | DIV Win% | CC Win% | SB Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | - | 57 | 32 | 19 |
| Carolina Panthers | - | 73 | 38 | 18 |
| New York Giants | - | 63 | 36 | 18 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | - | 62 | 29 | 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 70 | 36 | 21 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 61 | 27 | 14 | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 59 | 26 | 11 | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 39 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 41 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 63 | 17 | 5 | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 37 | 7 | 2 | 0.4 |
Boxscores for Every NFL Wild Card Game
| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis @ San Diego | 41.3 | 24-23 | Boxscore |
| Philadelphia @ Minnesota | 39 | 21-19 | Boxscore |
| Atlanta @ Arizona | 36.8 | 29-26 | Boxscore |
| Baltimore @ Miami | 29.8 | 21-16 | Boxscore |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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