WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Pittsburgh Steelers | +2 | 88.1 | 28.8 | 8.6 |
| 2. | Baltimore Ravens | - | 87.3 | 27.2 | 8.7 |
| 3. | Tennessee Titans | -2 | 86.9 | 29.6 | 11.0 |
| 4. | Philadelphia Eagles | - | 86.4 | 28.5 | 10.2 |
| 5. | New York Giants | - | 79.1 | 29.4 | 14.3 |
| 6. | Carolina Panthers | - | 77.6 | 31.0 | 18.1 |
| 7. | Indianapolis Colts | - | 74.2 | 26.5 | 16.0 |
| 8. | San Diego Chargers | - | 66.2 | 28.2 | 20.9 |
| 9. | Arizona Cardinals | +6 | 66.0 | 26.3 | 19.5 |
| 10. | Dallas Cowboys | -1 | 64.3 | 26.2 | 19.3 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 11. | New England Patriots | -1 | 62.6 | 26.1 | 19.9 |
| 12. | Atlanta Falcons | - | 61.4 | 28.1 | 22.6 |
| 13. | Miami Dolphins | - | 60.6 | 25.4 | 20.2 |
| 14. | Minnesota Vikings | -3 | 60.6 | 24.4 | 19.7 |
| 15. | New York Jets | -1 | 57.7 | 25.9 | 21.9 |
| 16. | Washington Redskins | - | 51.4 | 21.1 | 20.2 |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | - | 50.9 | 24.9 | 24.7 |
| 18. | Houston Texans | +2 | 46.1 | 23.1 | 24.7 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1 | 43.2 | 21.6 | 23.4 |
| 20. | Chicago Bears | -1 | 42.7 | 19.2 | 22.0 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 21. | Green Bay Packers | - | 41.3 | 24.0 | 27.3 |
| 22. | San Francisco 49ers | - | 38.7 | 20.1 | 24.8 |
| 23. | Buffalo Bills | - | 34.0 | 19.6 | 26.6 |
| 24. | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2 | 28.1 | 17.7 | 27.4 |
| 25. | Oakland Raiders | -1 | 26.6 | 18.6 | 29.5 |
| 26. | Denver Broncos | -1 | 25.9 | 19.1 | 31.1 |
| 27. | Cleveland Browns | - | 19.5 | 15.7 | 30.9 |
| 28. | Cincinnati Bengals | - | 18.0 | 13.1 | 28.7 |
| 29. | Seattle Seahawks | - | 17.4 | 15.7 | 31.6 |
| 30. | Kansas City Chiefs | - | 13.4 | 15.9 | 34.6 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 31. | St. Louis Rams | - | 13.2 | 17.1 | 36.9 |
| 32. | Detroit Lions | - | 10.5 | 18.1 | 40.7 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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