WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Pittsburgh Steelers | - | 91.0 | 29.0 | 7.7 |
| 2. | Tennessee Titans | +1 | 85.4 | 29.0 | 11.4 |
| 3. | Baltimore Ravens | -1 | 83.5 | 28.2 | 11.5 |
| 4. | Carolina Panthers | +2 | 80.0 | 32.3 | 17.9 |
| 5. | New York Giants | - | 79.4 | 30.7 | 14.1 |
| 6. | Philadelphia Eagles | -2 | 79.4 | 27.4 | 13.0 |
| 7. | Indianapolis Colts | - | 74.9 | 26.3 | 15.9 |
| 8. | Arizona Cardinals | +1 | 73.5 | 27.6 | 16.9 |
| 9. | Dallas Cowboys | +1 | 66.8 | 26.2 | 19.1 |
| 10. | New England Patriots | +1 | 65.9 | 26.9 | 19.1 |
| 11. | San Diego Chargers | -3 | 65.5 | 28.5 | 21.6 |
| 12. | Atlanta Falcons | - | 65.0 | 29.0 | 21.7 |
| 13. | Miami Dolphins | - | 60.3 | 25.8 | 21.0 |
| 14. | Minnesota Vikings | - | 58.8 | 24.5 | 20.3 |
| 15. | New York Jets | - | 58.1 | 26.4 | 21.7 |
| 16. | Washington Redskins | - | 50.2 | 21.1 | 20.7 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | - | 46.8 | 25.0 | 25.1 |
| 18. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1 | 45.3 | 21.2 | 23.4 |
| 19. | Green Bay Packers | +2 | 42.2 | 24.1 | 27.7 |
| 20. | Chicago Bears | - | 41.6 | 19.1 | 22.5 |
| 21. | Houston Texans | -3 | 41.4 | 22.1 | 25.3 |
| 22. | San Francisco 49ers | - | 36.9 | 20.2 | 25.7 |
| 23. | Buffalo Bills | - | 32.6 | 19.4 | 26.7 |
| 24. | Oakland Raiders | +1 | 28.3 | 19.1 | 29.3 |
| 25. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -1 | 27.6 | 17.7 | 27.4 |
| 26. | Denver Broncos | - | 26.6 | 19.5 | 30.3 |
| 27. | Seattle Seahawks | +2 | 18.5 | 15.6 | 31.0 |
| 28. | Cincinnati Bengals | - | 18.3 | 13.3 | 29.1 |
| 29. | Cleveland Browns | -2 | 17.9 | 16.3 | 30.9 |
| 30. | Kansas City Chiefs | - | 13.9 | 15.6 | 35.4 |
| 31. | St. Louis Rams | - | 12.5 | 17.0 | 37.7 |
| 32. | Detroit Lions | - | 12.1 | 18.1 | 41.4 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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