WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. All rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.
Most Notable Move:
After starting 3-0, critics said the Denver Broncos' early schedule was too easy and didn't really mean anything. When they beat the Dallas Cowboys, skeptics asserted that "America's Team" was too up-and-down to start the season and the home victory still wasn't convincing enough.
It took an overtime, but after beating the New England Patriots, have the Broncos finally proven themselves? Well, they've broken into the top 10 in this week's NFL Power Rankings - a monumental feat considering they opened the year barely in the top 30.
The Broncos were ranked No. 29 in the preseason power rankings and at that time, in 100 simulations against each and every NFL team, they were winning just 27% of their games. The Broncos had only moved up one spot in those rankings after the preseason. Now, behind quarterback Kyle Orton and a defense ranked first in the league in points per game, second in yards allowed per game, fifth in passing yards per game and sixth in rushing yards per game, Denver beats more than twice as many opponents at 62%.
The Broncos move up three spots after their most recent victory over New England and could further extend their lead in the AFC West this week when they take on the San Diego Chargers.
Biggest Gain:
Denver's move up the charts since the offseason is the biggest eye-opener, but it isn't the biggest jumper in this week's rankings. The Atlanta Falcons, with their dominating performance in a victory over San Francisco, jump 10 spots up to #7 and are beating opponents 64.4% of the time. The Philadelphia Eagles, behind a big performance by quarterback Donovan McNabb, move up nine spots and into the top five with a rout of Tampa Bay.
Biggest Loss:
The biggest drop of the week goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were given a coinflip's chance of beating Seattle going into Week 5. Instead, they were completely blown out in Matt Hasselbeck's return to the Seahawks. The Jags lost an astounding 41-0 and drop a dozen places in the power rankings, slipping from 11th to 23rd. The New England Patriots may have taken the Broncos to overtime, but their performance drops them 10 spots to 14th and the Dallas Cowboys may have found a way to beat Kansas City, but the fact that it was so close costs them nine positions.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | New Orleans Saints | - | 80.2% | 28.4 | 15.6 |
| 2. | New York Giants | +1 | 76.1% | 27.8 | 17.3 |
| 3. | Indianapolis Colts | -1 | 76.1% | 25.7 | 16.5 |
| 4. | Minnesota Vikings | +1 | 72.5% | 26.0 | 18.1 |
| 5. | Philadelphia Eagles | +9 | 69.3% | 26.1 | 19.0 |
| 6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | +3 | 66.1% | 24.7 | 19.0 |
| 7. | Atlanta Falcons | +10 | 64.4% | 23.9 | 19.8 |
| 8. | Baltimore Ravens | -2 | 63.6% | 24.2 | 18.6 |
| 9. | Cincinnati Bengals | +6 | 62.3% | 22.4 | 18.0 |
| 10. | Denver Broncos | +3 | 62.0% | 21.7 | 16.8 |
| 11. | San Diego Chargers | +1 | 60.5% | 26.1 | 22.3 |
| 12. | New York Jets | -2 | 57.6% | 20.6 | 18.2 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | -6 | 56.5% | 21.3 | 20.0 |
| 14. | New England Patriots | -10 | 56.0% | 21.0 | 19.2 |
| 15. | Seattle Seahawks | +5 | 55.1% | 20.7 | 19.2 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | +3 | 53.7% | 23.7 | 22.5 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
| 17. | Dallas Cowboys | -9 | 53.2% | 25.1 | 23.4 |
| 18. | Arizona Cardinals | -2 | 49.8% | 21.7 | 21.1 |
| 19. | Chicago Bears | -1 | 48.2% | 21.2 | 21.8 |
| 20. | Houston Texans | +3 | 45.4% | 23.3 | 24.9 |
| 21. | Miami Dolphins | +1 | 43.2% | 19.1 | 21.4 |
| 22. | Tennessee Titans | -1 | 40.6% | 19.6 | 23.4 |
| 23. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -12 | 38.7% | 19.6 | 23.0 |
| 24. | Buffalo Bills | +2 | 33.1% | 18.8 | 25.6 |
| 25. | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 32.4% | 17.8 | 24.6 |
| 26. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5 | 30.8% | 18.5 | 26.3 |
| 27. | Washington Redskins | -2 | 30.8% | 16.6 | 23.3 |
| 28. | Detroit Lions | +2 | 30.3% | 16.6 | 23.5 |
| 29. | Cleveland Browns | -1 | 29.2% | 16.1 | 23.7 |
| 30. | Kansas City Chiefs | -1 | 23.2% | 13.0 | 24.7 |
| 31. | Oakland Raiders | -4 | 23.1% | 14.0 | 26.8 |
| 32. | St. Louis Rams | - | 16.0% | 14.6 | 27.3 |
Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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