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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.
Most Notable Move:
There was a point where the Tennessee Titans ranked amongst the worst three teams in the entire league. But after two consecutive victories with Vince Young at the helm, they're back in the top half of the league in the latest power rankings.
Tennessee dropped to #30 in the rankings after a 59-0 drubbing at the hands of New England dropped the Titans to an 0-6 mark. After losing three games by 13 total points to start the season, the Titans fell in their next three by 101.
After a bye week, coach Jeff Fischer and the Titans turned back to Young, their one-time starting quarterback who fell out of favor last season and suffered through issues both on and off the field. The former college star doesn't have any jaw-dropping numbers since his return, completing 27 of 37 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown, but the record of 2-0 speaks for itself.
Young has received plenty of help from running back Chris Johnson in the two-game stretch. Johnson has 49 carries for 363 yards and four touchdowns in victories over Jacksonville and San Francisco.
The latter helps them jump eight more spots this week up to #15 in the NFL. The Titans, just three weeks after being considered the third worst team in football, now win 53.4% of their games when squaring off 100 times against every other NFL team.
And they could move up more before they move down. The Titans host the hapless Buffalo Bills this season before what could be a good matchup with Houston, allowing Tennessee the chance to prove that it at least belongs in the middle of the pack.
The Titans officially make the biggest leap in this week's rankings, but the Arizona Cardinals were a close second, jumping to the head of the NFC West race and back into the top 12 with a victory over the Chicago Bears. Kurt Warner threw five touchdown passes as the Cards finally got their first victory at home in their fourth try. Arizona goes from a middle-of-the-run team back to the playoff picture, jumping seven spots to #11.
San Diego, which got a victory on the road against the New York Giants, jumps five spots and is back in the top 10.
The Green Bay Packers added insult to insult. One week after losing to former star quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay faltered against then-winless Tampa Bay, falling to the Creamsicle-colored crew and dropping behind Minnesota by three games midway through the season. The Packers drop nine spots and out of the top half of the league to No. 19 overall. They are now beating less than 50 percent of all other NFL teams.
San Francisco and Chicago, each reeling in their own way, drop five more spots.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|1.||New Orleans Saints||-||81.3||30.8||18.5|
|4.||New England Patriots||+2||73.5||27.0||17.2|
|9.||San Diego Chargers||+5||57.9||23.6||20.8|
|16.||San Francisco 49ers||-5||52.2||22.3||21.3|
|17.||New York Jets||-4||52.1||22.2||22.2|
|19.||Green Bay Packers||-9||49.0||23.4||24.3|
|21.||New York Giants||-||48.0||23.4||24.1|
|26.||St. Louis Rams||-1||31.6||19.2||25.8|
|28.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+4||26.6||18.9||27.6|
|29.||Kansas City Chiefs||-1||24.5||17.8||28.4|
Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!