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Final College Football Power Rankings

12/7/2009 Rankings
By Eric Schmoldt, WhatIfSports.com
December 7th, 2009

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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storylines:

Thereís a new number one, and it may not be who you expected.

Florida held down the top spot all season long, but after falling in the SEC Championship, thereís a new top dog in the final power rankings of the regular season. And itís not Alabama, the team that beat Florida, but Texas who rounds out the year as the No. 1 team.

The Longhorns, who closed out a perfect season with a victory over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game, gives up the fewest points per game in 100 simulations against every other Football Bowl Subdivision team and beats those opponents 94.1% of the time.

The Crimson Tide does move up one spot, but falls short of the top spot by nearly 2%, beating FBS opponents at a 92.2% rate.

The Gators drop from the top spot all the way down to the ninth spot after getting blasted by Alabama, but they werenít the only top 10 team to take a dip.

The Cincinnati Bearcats came back in epic fashion to beat Pittsburgh, but the offensive onslaught didnít do much to help them in the rankings. They gave up 44 points, which is part of the reason they dropped six spots and out of the top 10, beating FBS opponents just over 84% of the time..

And fellow unbeaten Boise State dropped as well despite a big victory over New Mexico State. Perhaps the Broncosí light schedule finally caught up with them or the fact that they gave up three or more touchdowns in four of their last five games did them in. Either way, they fall seven spots to 14th.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
1.Texas Longhorns+394.139.09.3
2.Alabama Crimson Tide+192.239.19.7
3.TCU Horned Frogs-191.542.514.5
4.Pittsburgh Panthers+891.242.215.2
5.Ohio State Buckeyes+190.636.110.5
6.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+488.742.718.1
7.Oregon Ducks+488.239.213.9
8.Penn State Nittany Lions+188.237.513.8
9.Florida Gators-887.737.914.4
10.Oregon State Beavers+1384.435.415.8
11.Cincinnati Bearcats-684.341.718.7
12.Texas Tech Red Raiders+783.838.017.9
13.West Virginia Mountaineers+182.736.116.2
14.Boise State Broncos-782.542.521.9
15.Clemson Tigers+1081.734.214.7
16.Utah Utes+681.634.017.1
17.Brigham Young Cougars-480.135.719.3
18.Virginia Tech Hokies-1080.036.517.7
19.Iowa Hawkeyes-179.227.712.4
20.LSU Tigers-479.129.013.6
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
21.California Golden Bears-77.035.119.8
22.Florida State Seminoles+3375.937.522.5
23.Arizona Wildcats+474.933.017.7
24.Auburn Tigers+1474.733.919.1
25.Miami (FL) Hurricanes+674.332.218.9
26.Mississippi Rebels+673.834.319.9
27.Nebraska Cornhuskers-373.328.015.6
28.USC Trojans-1372.732.120.0
29.Oklahoma State Cowboys+872.630.518.8
30.Wisconsin Badgers-71.931.718.5
31.Houston Cougars-1171.437.226.2
32.Stanford Cardinal-1570.335.822.8
33.Georgia Bulldogs-769.729.119.3
34.Temple Owls+1469.529.818.9
35.Connecticut Huskies-68.830.019.1
36.Arkansas Razorbacks+668.735.624.0
37.Fresno State Bulldogs+966.133.424.0
38.South Carolina Gamecocks+166.027.217.8
39.North Carolina Tar Heels-365.922.114.0
40.Nevada Wolf Pack-1164.935.026.8
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
41.Texas A&M Aggies+1264.230.622.1
42.Air Force Falcons-264.227.119.1
43.Illinois Fighting Illini+2864.029.922.3
44.Central Michigan Chippewas-1163.928.921.1
45.Navy Midshipmen+2263.730.021.8
46.Missouri Tigers-1863.330.222.8
47.South Florida Bulls-363.130.223.1
48.Notre Dame Fighting Irish+461.729.722.3
49.Michigan State Spartans-460.329.424.1
50.Oklahoma Sooners-1660.025.221.1
51.Tennessee Volunteers-858.224.319.8
52.UCLA Bruins+2857.824.019.8
53.Idaho Vandals+553.230.128.2
54.Southern Miss Golden Eagles-753.229.027.2
55.Ohio Bobcats-651.321.420.5
56.Purdue Boilermakers+951.023.622.9
57.Arizona State Sun Devils+1850.219.719.5
58.Rutgers Scarlet Knights-1750.122.121.9
59.Syracuse Orange+2949.021.922.3
60.Virginia Cavaliers+4849.020.221.1
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
61.Boston College Eagles-548.919.519.4
62.Troy Trojans-1248.026.826.7
63.Wake Forest Demon Deacons+147.823.724.8
64.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+647.422.324.0
65.Kansas State Wildcats-1146.922.323.1
66.Kentucky Wildcats-46.722.223.5
67.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders-845.321.423.6
68.Northwestern Wildcats-44.220.622.7
69.Kansas Jayhawks+944.224.428.2
70.East Carolina Pirates-1943.521.024.8
71.Colorado Buffaloes+1643.321.324.6
72.Southern Methodist Mustangs+242.722.426.0
73.Northern Illinois Huskies-1042.021.724.6
74.Mississippi State Bulldogs-241.521.725.6
75.Buffalo Bulls-1540.920.925.7
76.Louisville Cardinals+939.719.624.8
77.Utah State Aggies-439.323.629.4
78.North Carolina State Wolfpack-1738.820.126.4
79.Hawaii Warriors-1738.222.828.7
80.UCF Knights-2337.818.324.9
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
81.Baylor Bears-537.519.726.7
82.Marshall Thundering Herd-537.219.426.0
83.Michigan Wolverines-433.319.327.7
84.Maryland Terrapins+1632.817.626.8
85.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs-432.817.727.0
86.New Mexico Lobos+2530.717.726.9
87.Duke Blue Devils+230.417.527.4
88.UAB Blazers-1929.323.735.2
89.Florida Atlantic Owls+2029.224.134.6
90.Toledo Rockets-629.119.330.8
91.Wyoming Cowboys-927.315.627.7
92.Indiana Hoosiers+225.815.828.8
93.Minnesota Golden Gophers-124.812.525.4
94.Bowling Green Falcons+1224.215.131.2
95.Iowa State Cyclones-523.915.631.1
96.Arkansas State Red Wolves-123.813.928.5
97.UTEP Miners-1123.816.932.4
98.Army Black Knights-523.712.927.2
99.Kent State Golden Flashes-823.512.427.0
100.Colorado State Rams+1022.513.528.7
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
101.Rice Owls+1122.416.833.5
102.Washington Huskies-1921.515.632.0
103.Western Michigan Broncos-620.514.032.0
104.Tulsa Golden Hurricane-519.917.135.3
105.North Texas Mean Green-319.114.835.2
106.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns-819.012.831.6
107.Ball State Cardinals-617.913.032.0
108.Vanderbilt Commodores-1217.811.229.7
109.UNLV Rebels-617.014.735.6
110.San Diego State Aztecs-515.410.629.3
111.Memphis Tigers-715.013.135.6
112.Washington State Cougars+613.310.933.8
113.Tulane Green Wave+212.812.334.1
114.Akron Zips-712.310.734.5
115.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-17.810.041.3
116.Miami (OH) RedHawks-36.76.937.3
117.San Jose State Spartans+26.18.038.4
118.Florida International Golden Panthers-25.77.638.6
119.Eastern Michigan Eagles+15.68.740.6
120.New Mexico State Aggies-34.77.341.2

Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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