2009 College Football Projections: Week 12 From WhatIfSports.com image

2009 College Football Projections

Week 12 NCAA Football Predictions
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 28th, 2009

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 12 (11/21/09).

Game of the Week: #7 LSU 27 @ #8 Mississippi 32
LSU may be ranked ahead of Mississippi as our 7th best team in the country, but games against Florida, at Georgia, at Alabama and at Mississippi may give LSU more losses than its ranking would indicate. In addition to their prolific offense led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, Ole Miss also brings with them a strong defensive unit that is stingy against the run. LSU's offense relies on the ground game with a mobile quarterback and a stable of good running backs, while the defense is probably weakest at safety. Homefield advantage is obviously going to play a role as well. Ole Miss is just a bad matchup for LSU. The Rebels win 55.1% of the time and by an average score of 32-27.


MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
North Carolina State @ Virginia Tech93.79-30
Virginia @ Clemson92.48-24
Duke @ Miami (FL)91.08-27
Maryland @ Florida State84.712-30
North Carolina @ Boston College10.619-8
Colorado @ Oklahoma State95.09-54
Iowa State @ Missouri95.017-45
Kansas @ Texas95.015-47
Kansas State @ Nebraska95.09-36
Baylor @ Texas A&M5.038-15
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech5.043-21
Louisville @ South Florida87.414-31
Rutgers @ Syracuse5.032-11
Minnesota @ Iowa88.011-27
Purdue @ Indiana44.215-14
Wisconsin @ Northwestern20.622-14
Penn State @ Michigan State16.922-11
Ohio State @ Michigan5.030-8
Memphis @ Houston95.014-46
UAB @ East Carolina88.013-30
Southern Methodist @ Marshall77.113-26
Tulsa @ Southern Miss66.824-32
Tulane @ UCF60.112-17
UTEP @ Rice53.226-29
Connecticut @ Notre Dame81.49-22
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo79.411-25
Northern Illinois @ Ohio67.814-22
Akron @ Bowling Green65.419-27
Kent State @ Temple47.817-18
Central Michigan @ Ball State33.623-19
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)14.621-9
San Diego State @ Utah95.09-38
Air Force @ Brigham Young71.423-33
Colorado State @ New Mexico36.222-20
TCU @ Wyoming5.030-9
Arizona State @ UCLA37.216-14
Oregon @ Arizona34.225-21
California @ Stanford9.332-14
Oregon State @ Washington State5.041-9
Chattanooga @ Alabama95.03-52
Florida International @ Florida95.04-60
Kentucky @ Georgia95.06-36
Mississippi State @ Arkansas85.712-28
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee74.18-18
LSU @ Mississippi55.127-32
Florida Atlantic @ Troy78.416-30
Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette75.715-25
Army @ North Texas35.917-14
Arkansas State @ Middle Tennessee21.322-14
Hawaii @ San Jose State59.815-20
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State38.921-18
Boise State @ Utah State5.034-12
Nevada @ New Mexico State5.041-13

Week 12 Standings

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech10 - 19 - 2
Atlantic CoastGeorgia Tech9 - 29 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State11 - 08 - 3
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina8 - 37 - 4
Atlantic CoastClemson7 - 47 - 4
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina State7 - 46 - 5
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)6 - 56 - 5
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 65 - 6
Atlantic CoastDuke4 - 74 - 7
Atlantic CoastBoston College3 - 84 - 7
Atlantic CoastWake Forest2 - 94 - 7
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 93 - 8
Big 12Texas11 - 010 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma10 - 110 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma State10 - 19 - 2
Big 12Baylor8 - 37 - 4
Big 12Kansas8 - 37 - 4
Big 12Missouri6 - 57 - 4
Big 12Nebraska5 - 67 - 4
Big 12Texas Tech7 - 46 - 5
Big 12Colorado5 - 64 - 7
Big 12Kansas State4 - 84 - 8
Big 12Texas A&M1 - 103 - 8
Big 12Iowa State2 - 103 - 9
Big EastWest Virginia10 - 09 - 1
Big EastRutgers10 - 08 - 2
Big EastPittsburgh8 - 27 - 3
Big EastSouth Florida6 - 47 - 3
Big EastCincinnati6 - 46 - 4
Big EastConnecticut3 - 74 - 6
Big EastLouisville3 - 84 - 7
Big EastSyracuse1 - 102 - 9
Big TenOhio State11 - 110 - 2
Big TenPenn State11 - 110 - 2
Big TenIowa10 - 210 - 2
Big TenIllinois8 - 28 - 2
Big TenWisconsin9 - 28 - 3
Big TenMichigan State7 - 57 - 5
Big TenNorthwestern6 - 66 - 6
Big TenMichigan4 - 85 - 7
Big TenMinnesota4 - 85 - 7
Big TenPurdue3 - 93 - 9
Big TenIndiana1 - 113 - 9
Conference USAHouston10 - 19 - 2
Conference USASouthern Miss9 - 29 - 2
Conference USAEast Carolina8 - 38 - 3
Conference USATulsa6 - 57 - 4
Conference USAMarshall6 - 55 - 6
Conference USAUTEP6 - 55 - 6
Conference USARice5 - 65 - 6
Conference USAUAB4 - 75 - 6
Conference USAMemphis2 - 93 - 8
Conference USASouthern Methodist2 - 93 - 8
Conference USAUCF2 - 93 - 8
Conference USATulane1 - 102 - 9
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame10 - 18 - 3
Independents (FBS)Navy7 - 46 - 5
Independents (FBS)Army4 - 74 - 7
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 101 - 9
Mid-AmericanWestern Michigan10 - 18 - 3
Mid-AmericanBall State8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanCentral Michigan8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois5 - 66 - 5
Mid-AmericanOhio8 - 36 - 5
Mid-AmericanBowling Green7 - 45 - 6
Mid-AmericanAkron6 - 55 - 6
Mid-AmericanKent State5 - 65 - 6
Mid-AmericanBuffalo4 - 75 - 6
Mid-AmericanTemple4 - 75 - 6
Mid-AmericanToledo4 - 75 - 6
Mid-AmericanEastern Michigan0 - 112 - 9
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)0 - 121 - 11
Mountain WestTCU11 - 09 - 2
Mountain WestUtah9 - 29 - 2
Mountain WestBrigham Young8 - 38 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force9 - 38 - 4
Mountain WestColorado State5 - 65 - 6
Mountain WestUNLV5 - 64 - 7
Mountain WestSan Diego State3 - 84 - 7
Mountain WestNew Mexico3 - 83 - 8
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 83 - 8
Pacific-10USC10 - 09 - 1
Pacific-10California10 - 19 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon State9 - 28 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon9 - 28 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona6 - 46 - 4
Pacific-10Stanford6 - 56 - 5
Pacific-10Arizona State5 - 65 - 6
Pacific-10UCLA4 - 74 - 7
Pacific-10Washington1 - 92 - 8
Pacific-10Washington State0 - 111 - 10
SoutheasternAlabama11 - 010 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida11 - 010 - 1
SoutheasternMississippi10 - 110 - 1
SoutheasternGeorgia8 - 38 - 3
SoutheasternLSU8 - 38 - 3
SoutheasternTennessee7 - 47 - 4
SoutheasternArkansas7 - 46 - 5
SoutheasternVanderbilt6 - 65 - 7
SoutheasternKentucky3 - 84 - 7
SoutheasternSouth Carolina3 - 84 - 7
SoutheasternAuburn3 - 83 - 8
SoutheasternMississippi State2 - 93 - 8
Sun BeltTroy8 - 37 - 4
Sun BeltArkansas State8 - 26 - 4
Sun BeltLouisiana-Lafayette6 - 56 - 5
Sun BeltMiddle Tennessee7 - 56 - 6
Sun BeltFlorida International6 - 55 - 6
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic3 - 74 - 6
Sun BeltLouisiana-Monroe3 - 83 - 8
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 113 - 9
Western AthleticBoise State10 - 110 - 1
Western AthleticNevada10 - 19 - 2
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech7 - 47 - 4
Western AthleticFresno State6 - 56 - 5
Western AthleticHawaii4 - 75 - 6
Western AthleticUtah State5 - 64 - 7
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 73 - 7
Western AthleticNew Mexico State2 - 93 - 8
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 111 - 10

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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