2009 College Football Projections: Week 13 From WhatIfSports.com image

2009 College Football Projections

Week 13 NCAA Football Predictions
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 29th, 2009

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 13 (11/28/09).

Game of the Week: #6 Oklahoma State 34 @ #3 Oklahoma 45
With Texas in the mix, neither of these top ten ranked teams is likely to represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship, but Bedlam is still destined to be a fun shootout with national implications. The Big 12 will probably get two teams into BCS bowls again this season. Texas is one. The other should come from this game. Oklahoma is at home and has the superior defense. And while "defense" may not be an appropriate term for any team in the Big 12, it should be enough to make the difference in this game. The Sooners will make one or two more stops than the Cowboys (meaning they probably make one or two stops period), prevailing 78.7% of the time and by an average score of 45-34.


MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Boston College @ Maryland79.110-23
Georgia @ Georgia Tech51.221-25
North Carolina @ North Carolina State28.219-13
Wake Forest @ Duke25.918-13
Virginia Tech @ Virginia5.033-9
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma78.734-45
Missouri @ Kansas64.528-35
Texas Tech @ Baylor50.529-32
Nebraska @ Colorado5.332-13
Texas @ Texas A&M5.058-9
Syracuse @ Connecticut877-22
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia82.711-27
Miami (FL) @ South Florida54.215-19
Illinois @ Cincinnati18.633-25
Rutgers @ Louisville15.630-18
Rice @ Houston93.421-44
Memphis @ Tulsa87.416-36
UCF @ UAB71.414-24
Marshall @ UTEP59.121-26
Tulane @ Southern Methodist51.818-21
Southern Miss @ East Carolina39.520-19
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan85.013-28
Eastern Michigan @ Akron80.113-27
Ball State @ Western Michigan77.418-31
Toledo @ Bowling Green64.116-23
Temple @ Ohio59.813-18
Buffalo @ Kent State45.519-20
New Mexico @ TCU95.08-34
San Diego State @ UNLV78.717-28
Wyoming @ Colorado State74.112-23
Utah @ Brigham Young54.522-25
UCLA @ USC95.06-54
Washington State @ Washington86.07-24
Arizona @ Arizona State29.621-15
Notre Dame @ Stanford25.626-19
Arkansas @ LSU95.014-42
Florida State @ Florida95.07-47
Clemson @ South Carolina14.318-8
Alabama @ Auburn5.040-8
Mississippi @ Mississippi State5.043-9
Tennessee @ Kentucky5.023-9
North Texas @ Arkansas State95.08-33
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic94.08-29
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana-Monroe27.920-14
Troy @ Louisiana-Lafayette24.325-18
New Mexico State @ San Jose State71.110-18
Nevada @ Boise State65.425-33
Utah State @ Idaho18.624-14
Navy @ Hawaii14.332-19

Week 13 Standings

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech11 - 110 - 2
Atlantic CoastGeorgia Tech10 - 29 - 3
Atlantic CoastFlorida State11 - 18 - 4
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina9 - 38 - 4
Atlantic CoastClemson8 - 48 - 4
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina State7 - 56 - 6
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)6 - 67 - 5
Atlantic CoastMaryland6 - 66 - 6
Atlantic CoastWake Forest3 - 95 - 7
Atlantic CoastDuke4 - 84 - 8
Atlantic CoastBoston College3 - 94 - 8
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 103 - 9
Big 12Texas12 - 011 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma11 - 111 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma State10 - 210 - 2
Big 12Kansas9 - 38 - 4
Big 12Nebraska6 - 68 - 4
Big 12Baylor9 - 37 - 5
Big 12Texas Tech7 - 57 - 5
Big 12Missouri6 - 67 - 5
Big 12Colorado5 - 74 - 8
Big 12Kansas State4 - 84 - 8
Big 12Iowa State2 - 103 - 9
Big 12Texas A&M1 - 113 - 9
Big EastWest Virginia11 - 010 - 1
Big EastRutgers11 - 09 - 2
Big EastPittsburgh8 - 38 - 3
Big EastSouth Florida7 - 47 - 4
Big EastCincinnati6 - 56 - 5
Big EastConnecticut4 - 75 - 6
Big EastLouisville3 - 94 - 8
Big EastSyracuse1 - 112 - 10
Big TenOhio State11 - 110 - 2
Big TenPenn State11 - 110 - 2
Big TenIowa10 - 210 - 2
Big TenIllinois9 - 29 - 2
Big TenWisconsin9 - 28 - 3
Big TenMichigan State7 - 57 - 5
Big TenNorthwestern6 - 66 - 6
Big TenMichigan4 - 85 - 7
Big TenMinnesota4 - 85 - 7
Big TenPurdue3 - 93 - 9
Big TenIndiana1 - 113 - 9
Conference USAHouston11 - 110 - 2
Conference USASouthern Miss10 - 29 - 3
Conference USAEast Carolina8 - 48 - 4
Conference USATulsa7 - 57 - 5
Conference USAUTEP7 - 56 - 6
Conference USAMarshall6 - 65 - 7
Conference USARice5 - 75 - 7
Conference USAUAB5 - 75 - 7
Conference USAMemphis2 - 104 - 8
Conference USASouthern Methodist3 - 93 - 9
Conference USAUCF2 - 103 - 9
Conference USATulane1 - 113 - 9
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame11 - 19 - 3
Independents (FBS)Navy8 - 47 - 5
Independents (FBS)Army4 - 74 - 7
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 111 - 10
Mid-AmericanWestern Michigan11 - 19 - 3
Mid-AmericanCentral Michigan9 - 38 - 4
Mid-AmericanOhio9 - 37 - 5
Mid-AmericanBall State8 - 47 - 5
Mid-AmericanAkron7 - 56 - 6
Mid-AmericanBowling Green8 - 46 - 6
Mid-AmericanKent State5 - 76 - 6
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois5 - 76 - 6
Mid-AmericanTemple4 - 86 - 6
Mid-AmericanBuffalo5 - 75 - 7
Mid-AmericanToledo4 - 85 - 7
Mid-AmericanEastern Michigan0 - 122 - 10
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)0 - 121 - 11
Mountain WestTCU12 - 010 - 2
Mountain WestUtah9 - 310 - 2
Mountain WestBrigham Young9 - 39 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force9 - 38 - 4
Mountain WestColorado State6 - 66 - 6
Mountain WestUNLV6 - 65 - 7
Mountain WestSan Diego State3 - 94 - 8
Mountain WestNew Mexico3 - 93 - 9
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 93 - 9
Pacific-10USC11 - 010 - 1
Pacific-10California10 - 19 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon State9 - 28 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon9 - 28 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona7 - 47 - 4
Pacific-10Stanford6 - 66 - 6
Pacific-10Arizona State5 - 76 - 6
Pacific-10UCLA4 - 84 - 8
Pacific-10Washington2 - 93 - 8
Pacific-10Washington State0 - 121 - 11
SoutheasternAlabama12 - 011 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida12 - 011 - 1
SoutheasternMississippi11 - 110 - 2
SoutheasternLSU9 - 39 - 3
SoutheasternGeorgia8 - 48 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee8 - 48 - 4
SoutheasternArkansas7 - 56 - 6
SoutheasternVanderbilt6 - 65 - 7
SoutheasternKentucky3 - 94 - 8
SoutheasternSouth Carolina3 - 94 - 8
SoutheasternAuburn3 - 93 - 9
SoutheasternMississippi State2 - 103 - 9
Sun BeltTroy9 - 38 - 4
Sun BeltArkansas State9 - 27 - 4
Sun BeltMiddle Tennessee8 - 57 - 6
Sun BeltLouisiana-Lafayette6 - 66 - 6
Sun BeltFlorida International6 - 55 - 6
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic4 - 75 - 6
Sun BeltLouisiana-Monroe3 - 94 - 8
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 123 - 10
Western AthleticBoise State11 - 110 - 2
Western AthleticNevada10 - 29 - 3
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech7 - 47 - 4
Western AthleticFresno State6 - 56 - 5
Western AthleticUtah State6 - 65 - 7
Western AthleticHawaii4 - 85 - 7
Western AthleticSan Jose State4 - 74 - 7
Western AthleticNew Mexico State2 - 104 - 8
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 121 - 11

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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