Related FeaturesSuperBowl Power Rankings
Super Bowl XLIV Prediction
Super Bowl Prop Bets
The Manning Time Machine
WhatIfSports NFL Season-to-Date
FOXSports.com - NFL
Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather please hold your places on the back burner.
As two of boxing's elite continue to bicker about ,of all things, blood testing, two heavyweights in another sport are about to toss aside the gloves, measure up, jump out of the ring and in to the circus that is Super Bowl XLIV.
Whatifsports.com already crunched the numbers and released its Super Bowl XLIV Prediction last week:
Super Bowl XLIV
|New Orleans Saints||62.2||27||Boxscore|
|@ Indianapolis Colts||37.8||25||Simulate Game|
Some experts (Who are these guys/gals? I want names!) claim this Super Bowl will go down as one of the greatest football games of all-time. But the National Football League's attempt to mimic its own version of the '"Thrilla in Manila" still begs the question: who is Ali and who is Frazier?
If you've paid attention to any headlines, listened to any national sports talk show, or caught the late night sportscast, the media is portraying Peyton Manning as the league's top quarterback in recent history (thanks for nothing Tom Brady and your three Super Bowl rings) and definitely the superior quarterback against the Saints.
Leading me to believe Drew Brees and his fans are shaking their heads, saying "Dat can't be true!"
The triggermen of the Colts and Saints are so closely aligned, the regular season statistics are staggering. Manning finished the season with 4,500 total yards passing compared to 4,388 yards passing for Brees. Drew tossed 34 touchdowns to Manning's 33. Brees completed over 70% of his passes (70.6) with Manning breathing down his neck boasting a 68.8% completion percentage.
The only major gap between the two fell under the quarterback rating where Drew Brees finished the regular season with a rating of 109.6 compared to Manning's 99.9.What If 101
But what if we took Peyton and Drew out of the equation and based the outcome of the Super Bowl on the shoulders of the Saints' and Colts' supporting cast. Who would win? Using our Dream Teams tool, Whatifsports.com set out to find the answer.
Whatifsports.com benched Brees and Manning and inserted a league average quarterback in their place. The final outcome of the game did not change from our Super Bowl Prediction, but the winning percentage proves the Saints' supporting cast (running backs, receivers, and defense) are stronger than that of the Colts winning at a clip of 58.4%. The average score drops slightly for both teams, but that is to be expected when an average quarterback is tossing the rock around the field.
Team Strength w/ Average QB
|New Orleans Saints||58.4||24|
|@ Indianapolis Colts||41.6||23|
With that information as a baseline, Whatifsports.com wanted to know which quarterback gave their team a better chance to win on Super Sunday. With the previous scenario in mind, we left the Saints with a league average quarterback, but gave Indianapolis Peyton back.
To our surprise, Manning only improved the Colts chances of winning by a little over 12% when facing a Saints team with the likes of David Garrard behind center (league average). This goes back to the fact the Saints supporting cast is stronger than the Colts and heck, Peyton couldn't even beat Archie. Peyton does improve the Colts average score by a field goal, but it's not surprising when you factor in Manning's season statistics and, more than likely, the Saints' league average quarterback inability to move the football down the field.
Colts w/ Peyton, Saints w/ Average QB
|New Orleans Saints||46.2||23|
|@ Indianapolis Colts||53.8||26|
However, when the scenario is reversed, the Saints get Brees back and the Colts are stuck with a Jay Cutler-esque (league average ) quarterback, New Orleans chances of winning improve by nearly 17%.
The Saints average winning margin explodes to 8 points with the addition of Brees and the subtraction of Manning.
Saints w/ Drew, Colts w/ Average QB
|New Orleans Saints||75.6||29|
|@ Indianapolis Colts||24.4||21|
Drew Brees has two pretty big distinctions to hang his hat on recently. He will reign as celebrity monarch, Bacchus, during this year's Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans and now he can rest easy at night knowing he's the Super Bowl's MVQB (More Valuable Quarterback).
And if you think about it, Brees is also about to float like a butterfly and sting the Colts like a bee.
Have Drew Brees as your starting quarterback and Peyton Manning as your back-up in your first season of SimLeague Football.
Ryan Fowler is the Digital Content Manager for Whatifsports.com and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.