Fantasy Football Advice for Week 16
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Every Tuesday during the NFL season, WhatIfSports.com will release its fantasy projections for the upcoming week. The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically-based player rankings. In addition to our computer forecasts, WhatIfSports.com will also offer a "creative" perspective at its fantasy football coverage in a weekly feature called "Fantasy Fever." Enjoy.
QB: Tim Tebow, Broncos. Tebow is a good play for Week 16, but not necessarily because of his impressive debut against the Raiders (two touchdowns, 100.5 QB rating). Houston has surrendered league-highs in passing yards (3,851), touchdowns (31) and QB rating (103.1). How atrocious is the Houston secondary? Kerry Collins threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns against the unit last week. Using this premise as a corollary, Tebow should rack up at least five touchdowns and 600 yards of total offense.
RB: Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers. Mendenhall has been one of the more consistent backs in fantasy in 2010, failing to hit the 60-yard plateau just four times this season. However, Mendenhall has yet to submit a truly transcendent performance. That could change with an upcoming contest with Carolina, as the Panthers have conceded 17 rushing touchdowns and 1,767 yards on the ground this season.
WR: Anthony Armstrong, Redskins. With Washington facing a Jacksonville secondary that has relinquished 3,579 yards and 26 touchdowns through the air, Armstrong should find his share of opportunities to make a splash. In his last three games, the Redskin wideout has 15 receptions for 207 yards.
TE: Owen Daniels, Texans. Daniels had his second-straight solid showing, posting four receptions for 45 yards against Tennessee. This week should prove beneficial for Daniels as the Texans take on the Broncos, who have given up 25 passing touchdowns with just eight interceptions.
DEF: San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are playing for a playoff berth; the Bengals are trying to secure the #1 pick. Add in the abysmal historical West Coast record of Cincinnati and this one should be a Bengal blood bath.
QB: Rex Grossman, Redskins. Did he put up phenomenal stats against Dallas last week? Yep. Is the Jacksonville defense really that bad? Worse than the Little Giants. So why keep him on the bench this week? Well, it's simple really: Do you think the phrase, "I won my league because of Rex Grossman!" will ever be uttered in fantasy football? Maybe. Only if that statement includes, "I won my fantasy league because the idiot I played against started Rex Grossman!"
RB: Cedric Benson, Bengals. Benson had his best game of the season against the Browns last week, accumulating 150 yards and a touchdown. With Terrell Owens sidelined for the year, many believe Cincinnati will stick to the ground for their remaining two games. Unfortunately, Benson and the Bengals travel to San Diego this week, as the Chargers are stifling opposing rushing attacks to 89.4 yards a game. Use Benson at your own discretion.
WR: Mike Wallace, Steelers. Carolina's 2010 campaign has been one to forget. However, the Panthers haven't been pitiful against the pass, limiting signal callers to 203.4 yards per game and a 76.8 QB rating. With the Steelers likely to go up early, Wallace and the passing game should be a non-factor in this matchup.
TE: Kevin Boss, Giants. Boss does have two touchdowns to his credit in the past three weeks, but a matchup against one of the best defenses and LB corps in Green Bay should bound the Boss-man to the bench.
DEF: New England Patriots. The Pats gave up 27 points to a Packer offense led by Matt Flynn and face a feisty Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo. The weather could help New England, as snow could limit the amount of offensive firepower, but look for other options if they exist.
Comeback KidWalter has bounced back from a midseason slump.
Fantasy Flashback Performance: With a possible lockout looming, this could be the last few weeks of Kerry Collins, who's had an interesting career to say the least. To honor the journeyman, let's take a look at one of Collins' finest fantasy moments on his resume. In Week 16 of the 2002 season against the Indianapolis Colts, the then-New York quarterback had a perfect QB rating of 158.3 and fired four touchdowns in a Giants 44-27 win. As Week 16 mirrors the championship round in most fantasy leagues, Collins' performance correlated into fantasy glory for those lucky enough to start the two-time Pro Bowler.
Waiver Wire Watch: Former Florida wideout David Nelson has flourished as the new number #2 receiver for Buffalo. Nelson has scored a touchdown in each of the past three weeks and has 14 receptions in the past month. Nelson is definitely a risky pickup, but the Patriots are allowing 263.3 yards through the air this season. Nelson's owned in less than 1% of leagues, so for those seeking help in the WR or flex position, Nelson can be your man.
This Week in Kevin Walter: Don't call it a comeback! K-Money dazzled for the third straight week with seven receptions for 79 yards and a score. The Texan Tornado has a chance to end the season on a high note with Denver and Jacksonville left on the schedule. In a related note, I bought the movie "The A-Team" last week, and although I enjoyed the flick, was dumbfounded why Walter wasn't included. A film about soldiers of fortune on the run for a crime they didn't commit? Obviously Walter is in the same predicament, on the run from fantasy owners who are upset at Walter's production when Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub are to blame.
Walter's 2010 stats: 47 receptions, 553 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Walter's 2010 CBC (Cornerback Body Count) : 11
Rookie Review: With Adrian Peterson out, rookie Toby Gerhart filled in with an admirable performance of 77 yards rushing and added three catches in the passing game. Gerhart's first season was largely forgettable thanks to Minnesota's tumble into anonymity, as well as Gerhart seeing limited action as AP's backup.
Gatorade Shower Goes To: Vincent Jackson, Chargers. It's not often fans side with players in contract disputes, but it seems like the general public is in the corner of Jackson in his clash with Charger GM A.J. Smith. So it was encouraging to see Jackson breakout for three touchdowns in San Diego's 34-7 shellacking of San Francisco.
Personal Foul On: Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati. What are you doing? You're going to blow the #1 pick! Don't you fools realize how awesome Andrew Luck is?
Varsity Blues Quote of the Week:
Billy Bob: It's a club, man. I'm here to work!
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