College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions

Week 10 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
October 31, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama

I actually covered a "Game of the Century" back on November 18, 2006. The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes hosted their enemy from up north, Michigan. The Wolverines, ranked second heading into the final week of the regular season, played the game a day after the death of iconic head coach Bo Schembechler.

The tension prior to kickoff was thick. The energy during the game was palpable. The celebration on the field after the game was euphoric for those sporting scarlet and grey attire.

I expect the same setting down in Tuscaloosa inside Bryant-Denny Stadium when No. 2 Alabama hosts No. 1 LSU Saturday night. Both teams enter Week 10 coming off a bye. The rest and relaxation must have been a welcomed treat as five days of constant media attention and 60 minutes of hell await them this week.

When it comes to statistically analyzing the matchup, offense takes a back seat to defense. The Crimson Tide possess the top scoring defense in the nation at 6.9 points allowed per game, while the Tigers are third at 11.5 papg. Now if history tells us anything, the final score of this game should be in the 20s or 30s.

Alabama is also first in the nation in total yards allowed per game at 180.5. The Tigers allow 251.4 yards per game. Alabama is first in rush defense, 44.9 yapg. and second in passing defense, 135.6 yapg. The Tigers are third in rush defense, 76.6 yapg, and 10th in pass defense 174.8 yapg, but have picked off more passes, 11, than the Tide (nine).

On offense, Alabama's Trent Richardson is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy. He's closing in on 1,000 rushing yards, is averaging 6.6 yards per rush and has scored 18 touchdowns (one receiving) on the season. LSU's Jarrett Lee has led an efficient offensive attack in place of Jordan Jefferson. He's thrown for over 1,200 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 25-23.

College Football Week 10
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Duke Blue Devils20.824Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes79.233 
Virginia Cavaliers57.425Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins42.623 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish64.430Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons35.624 
North Carolina Tar Heels68.326Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack31.722 
Florida State Seminoles76.730Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles23.320 
Louisville Cardinals30.720Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers69.329 
Cincinnati Bearcats49.526Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers50.527 
Syracuse Orange54.024Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies46.022 
South Florida Bulls66.325Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights33.721 
Minnesota Golden Gophers 5.011Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans95.038 
Indiana Hoosiers 8.917Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes91.135 
Purdue Boilermakers 8.918Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers91.137 
Northwestern Wildcats29.716Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers70.327 
Michigan Wolverines47.527Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes52.528 
Akron Zips15.817Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks84.228 
Northern Illinois Huskies48.531Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets51.532 
Temple Owls60.425Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats39.622 
Ball State Cardinals60.425Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles39.622 
Central Michigan Chippewas60.423Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes39.621 
Washington State Cougars35.622Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears64.429 
Utah Utes40.624Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats59.427 
Arizona State Sun Devils76.731Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins23.321 
Oregon Ducks82.235Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies17.823 
Stanford Cardinal90.138Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 9.922 
USC Trojans92.136Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 7.920 
New Mexico State Aggies 5.010Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs95.043 
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 5.08Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs95.053 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders18.816Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers81.229 
Vanderbilt Commodores22.817Boxscore
@ Florida Gators77.226 
South Carolina Gamecocks34.724Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks65.331 
LSU Tigers38.623Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide61.425 
Mississippi Rebels44.623Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats55.424 
Utah State Aggies25.725Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors74.334 
Idaho Vandals39.623Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans60.426 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs48.530Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs51.531 
Troy Trojans34.722Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen65.329 
Kansas State Wildcats14.926Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys85.139 
Texas A&M Aggies27.729Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners72.336 
Kansas Jayhawks33.723Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones66.330 
Texas Tech Red Raiders37.626Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns62.430 
Missouri Tigers61.431Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears38.627 
Tulane Green Wave36.625Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs63.432 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane39.633Boxscore
@ UCF Knights60.435 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles53.533Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates46.532 
UTEP Miners56.427Boxscore
@ Rice Owls43.626 
Houston Cougars91.144Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 8.926 
New Mexico Lobos 5.012Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs95.039 
Army Black Knights32.219Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons67.825 
Boise State Broncos95.052Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 5.011 
TCU Horned Frogs95.039Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys 5.015 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks39.124Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns60.927 
FIU Golden Panthers65.330Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers34.724 
Arkansas State Red Wolves83.232Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls16.818 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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