Week 11 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Oregon at Stanford
If you loved the No. 1 vs No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, you'll absolutely hate the hyper-offensive matchup between Stanford and Oregon in Week 11. It took overtime for Alabama and LSU to combine for 15 points. Depending on two-point conversion decisions, the Cardinal and Ducks could knock that out in the first two offensive series.
Andrew Luck and company are currently third in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James (now back from injury) and Kenjon Barner pace an offense fifth in scoring at 46.0 points per game. A season ago, the Ducks rallied to win 52-31 thanks, in part, to a 28-0 run to end the game.
For the moment, Stanford holds the better scoring defense, limiting the opposition to 16.6 points per game compared to the Ducks who have allowed 20.8 points per game.
Luck's notoriety has Stanford branded as a passing offense, but a closer look at their stats proves otherwise. They average 281 passing yards per game and 224 rushing yards. On the contrary, the Ducks are pretty one-dimensional and use their speed to move the pigskin down the field on the ground. They rank 78th in the nation in passing, but average nearly 300 yards on the ground per game, fifth in the country.
The Cardinal rank third in the country in rush defense and have allowed only 78.9 yards per game on the ground.
We simulated the Cardinal and Ducks 101 times and the simulation engine picks Stanford to win 63.4 percent of the time by an average score of 33-31.
TCU at Boise State
First place in the Mountain West Conference is on the line this Saturday in Boise. As they have in seasons' past, the Broncos enter the game a perfect 8-0 with BCS National Championship aspirations on their minds. Despite Casey Pachell's best efforts, the Horned Frogs (7-2/4-0 MWC) are rebuilding following the departure of Andy Dalton to the NFL where he's led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 6-2 start to the season.
TCU currently ranks 70th in the nation in passing offense at 224 yards per game, but are solid in the ground game with a three-headed monster of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. The trio has racked up better than 500 rushing yards apiece and has combined for 16 touchdowns.
Kellen Moore has continued a quiet bid to win the Heisman Trophy. As is always the case, a soft schedule has watered down his 2,229 passing yards and 29 touchdowns with only five interceptions. The Broncos remain one of the highest scoring offenses in the country at 43.9 points per game, currently seventh overall.
We simulated the Broncos and Horned Frogs 101 times and the simulation engine likes Boise State to win at home 78.2 percent of the time by an average score of 38-29.
College Football Week 11
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||27.7||22||Boxscore|
|@ Clemson Tigers||72.3||32|
|Duke Blue Devils||32.2||24||Boxscore|
|@ Virginia Cavaliers||67.8||30|
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||35.6||25||Boxscore|
|@ Florida State Seminoles||64.4||29|
|North Carolina State Wolfpack||53.0||24||Boxscore|
|@ Boston College Eagles||47.0||23|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||60.4||24||Boxscore|
|@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||39.6||21|
|@ Louisville Cardinals||52.5||24|
|South Florida Bulls||48.5||23||Boxscore|
|@ Syracuse Orange||51.5||24|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||62.4||32||Boxscore|
|@ Cincinnati Bearcats||37.6||28|
|@ Northwestern Wildcats||90.1||34|
|@ Illinois Fighting Illini||51.5||28|
|@ Penn State Nittany Lions||50.5||23|
|Michigan State Spartans||68.3||28||Boxscore|
|@ Iowa Hawkeyes||31.7||22|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||76.2||28||Boxscore|
|@ Purdue Boilermakers||23.8||16|
|@ Minnesota Golden Gophers||5.0||12|
|Western Michigan Broncos||22.3||23||Boxscore|
|@ Toledo Rockets||77.7||33|
|Miami (OH) RedHawks||30.7||19||Boxscore|
|@ Temple Owls||69.3||27|
|@ Eastern Michigan Eagles||38.1||19|
|@ Central Michigan Chippewas||32.7||22|
|Northern Illinois Huskies||81.2||34||Boxscore|
|@ Bowling Green Falcons||18.8||23|
|Kent State Golden Flashes||80.7||24||Boxscore|
|@ Akron Zips||19.3||14|
|@ USC Trojans||67.3||33|
|@ Stanford Cardinal||63.4||33|
|Oregon State Beavers||46.5||23||Boxscore|
|@ California Golden Bears||53.5||24|
|@ Utah Utes||41.6||25|
|@ Colorado Buffaloes||28.7||23|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||82.7||34||Boxscore|
|@ Washington State Cougars||17.3||22|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||5.0||11||Boxscore|
|@ LSU Tigers||95.0||43|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||75.2||32|
|@ Arkansas Razorbacks||72.8||30|
|@ South Carolina Gamecocks||59.4||22|
|Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||47.5||28||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi Rebels||52.5||30|
|@ Vanderbilt Commodores||41.6||20|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||82.7||31||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi State Bulldogs||17.3||18|
|San Jose State Spartans||49.5||26||Boxscore|
|@ Utah State Aggies||50.5||28|
|@ Nevada Wolf Pack||32.7||30|
|Fresno State Bulldogs||87.1||33||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||12.9||18|
|@ Brigham Young Cougars||83.2||32|
|@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish||82.2||30|
|Rutgers Scarlet Knights||76.2||27||Boxscore|
|@ Army Black Knights||23.8||18|
|Texas A&M Aggies||50.0||31||Boxscore|
|@ Kansas State Wildcats||50.0||30|
|@ Missouri Tigers||49.0||24|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||81.2||40||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Tech Red Raiders||18.8||29|
|@ Kansas Jayhawks||16.8||26|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||27.7||26||Boxscore|
|@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane||72.3||34|
|@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles||63.4||34|
|@ Southern Methodist Mustangs||56.9||27|
|East Carolina Pirates||81.2||34||Boxscore|
|@ UTEP Miners||18.8||23|
|@ Tulane Green Wave||18.8||29|
|@ Memphis Tigers||17.8||19|
|TCU Horned Frogs||21.8||29||Boxscore|
|@ Boise State Broncos||78.2||38|
|@ Air Force Falcons||61.4||24|
|@ New Mexico Lobos||27.7||18|
|San Diego State Aztecs||84.2||35||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||15.8||20|
|Florida Atlantic Owls||25.7||17||Boxscore|
|@ FIU Golden Panthers||74.3||27|
|North Texas Mean Green||46.0||26||Boxscore|
|@ Troy Trojans||54.0||27|
|Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||53.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks||46.5||24|
|Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||55.4||28||Boxscore|
|@ Arkansas State Red Wolves||44.6||27|
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