College Football Week 13 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 13 Picks and Predictions

Week 13 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
November 21, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

<a href='http://msn.foxsports.com/video/college-football?videoId=d1aa110e-11f0-4574-b3b1-d6b9333346d5&src=v5:embed::' target='_new' title='WhatIfSports: Week 13 CFB picks'>Video: WhatIfSports: Week 13 CFB picks</a>

The BCS standings mimicked the weather in Ohio this past weekend. If you wanted it to change, just wait five minutes. Playing with heavy hearts, Oklahoma State got caught up in Iowa State's upset cyclone, the USC Trojans beat Oregon on the Ducks' home field and RGIII led the Baylor Bears to a shootout win over fifth-ranked Oklahoma.

When the chips fell, the SEC West held the BCS trump card. LSU remained first in the standings, Alabama slid up to two with Arkansas third. With the SEC Championship on the horizon, all three teams prepare for heavyweight bouts in Week 13 with the winner to play Georgia in Atlanta.

Game of the Week: No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU

Following their 9-6 overtime win in Tuscaloosa, Les Miles and the Tigers have played a pair of tin cans the last two weeks. LSU outscored Western Kentucky and Ole Miss by a combined score of 94-12. The Bayou Bengals' defense in second in scoring (10.0 points allowed per game), fourth against the rush (89.6 yards allowed per game), fifth against the pass (158.3 yards allowed per game) and second in total defense (247.9 yards allowed per game).

Following their Week 4 loss at Alabama, Arkansas has won seven straight. This streak includes victories over Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina. The Hogs' average margin of victory during this stretch is 17.3 points.

He probably won't catch Ryan Mallett's stats from a season ago, but junior quarterback Tyler Wilson has posted solid numbers through the first 11 games. He's completed 63.1 percent of his passes for over 3,200 yards with 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. The team is 10th in the country in passing at 316.9 yards per game.

Using our college football simulation engine we "played" LSU and Arkansas 101 times and it's the Tigers winning 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 31-25.

No. 2 Alabama at No. 24 Auburn

Alabama and Auburn scheduled two FCS foes from the Southern Conference in Week 12. Turned out Georgia Southern and Samford were interested in more than collecting a paycheck for their universities. The Eagles only trailed by 10 at the half, while the Bulldogs pulled within one of Auburn in the third quarter before the two FBS schools pulled away.

The Tide and Tigers probably exerted more energy than expected heading into this week's Iron Bowl.

Since October 1, Auburn has gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W over their last seven games. If the pattern continues, the defending BCS champs will finish the regular season 7-5.

Michael Dyer is the team's catalyst on offense and has rushed for nearly 1,200 yards (5.2 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns on the season. However, the Tigers rank 106th in passing offense at 161.7 passing yards per game.

Trent Richardson remains the bulldozer for the Tide on offense with 1,380 yards on the ground and 20 touchdowns. The team is 16th in the country in rushing at 220.5 yards per game.

Alabama's scoring defense is still tops in the country at 8.4 points allowed per game.

We simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 76.2 percent of the time by an average score of 31-18.

Note: If Arkansas wins on Friday and Alabama wins on Saturday, that would create a three-way tie that would be settled by the BCS standings.

College Football Week 13
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Boston College Eagles37.621Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes62.426 
Maryland Terrapins45.523Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack54.524 
Duke Blue Devils47.526Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels52.529 
Vanderbilt Commodores54.527Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons45.524 
Virginia Tech Hokies69.329Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers30.723 
Georgia Bulldogs80.729Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets19.320 
Cincinnati Bearcats37.623Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange62.426 
Pittsburgh Panthers39.624Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers60.428 
Louisville Cardinals48.524Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls51.525 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights56.421Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies43.620 
Penn State Nittany Lions19.319Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers80.732 
Ohio State Buckeyes32.219Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines67.826 
Iowa Hawkeyes43.623Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers56.424 
Michigan State Spartans74.332Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats25.723 
Illinois Fighting Illini84.729Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers15.316 
Purdue Boilermakers93.136Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers 6.919 
Eastern Michigan Eagles 7.917Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies92.135 
Akron Zips14.917Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos85.131 
Miami (OH) RedHawks35.622Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats64.427 
Kent State Golden Flashes48.520Boxscore
@ Temple Owls51.522 
Bowling Green Falcons64.425Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls35.621 
Toledo Rockets79.233Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals20.823 
Oregon State Beavers19.821Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks80.234 
UCLA Bruins22.827Boxscore
@ USC Trojans77.235 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish26.725Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal73.334 
Colorado Buffaloes28.720Boxscore
@ Utah Utes71.328 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns30.722Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats69.331 
Washington State Cougars41.625Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies58.427 
California Golden Bears49.523Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils50.524 
Mississippi Rebels20.818Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs79.227 
Arkansas Razorbacks34.725Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers65.331 
Clemson Tigers54.525Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks45.524 
Florida State Seminoles63.424Boxscore
@ Florida Gators36.621 
Tennessee Volunteers66.323Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats33.719 
Alabama Crimson Tide76.231Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers23.818 
New Mexico State Aggies21.821Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs78.235 
San Jose State Spartans33.724Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs66.329 
Tulane Green Wave43.624Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors56.425 
Nevada Wolf Pack69.331Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies30.725 
Iowa State Cyclones16.822Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners83.235 
Texas Tech Red Raiders35.630Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears64.436 
Texas Longhorns41.624Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies58.428 
Missouri Tigers93.135Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 6.918 
Memphis Tigers 7.918Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles92.138 
UTEP Miners32.722Boxscore
@ UCF Knights67.328 
Rice Owls41.127Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs58.930 
Houston Cougars55.442Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane44.640 
East Carolina Pirates60.426Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd39.623 
Wyoming Cowboys 5.918Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos94.144 
Air Force Falcons73.828Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams26.218 
San Diego State Aztecs89.132Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels10.915 
Troy Trojans41.125Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers58.927 
FIU Golden Panthers53.023Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders47.022 
UAB Blazers84.232Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls15.819 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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