Week 9 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Kansas State
There's 7-0 and then there's 7-0. Kansas State is 7-0 and please don't be that program apologist who defends the Wildcats flawless start with the tired "we can only play the teams on our schedule" reset. The truth is 73-year-old Bill Snyder has done a hell of a job leading his team into Week 9 undefeated. However, only one of those wins came against a rank team; a one-point victory over Baylor at home.
With quarterback Colin Klein leading their rush-first offense, the Cats still only rank 19th in rushing yards (213.9). If Oklahoma (116.6 rush yards allowed per game) neutralizes the ground game, K-State really doesn't have the passing attack (ranked 110th in passing) to keep pace with the up-tempo Sooners. The Wildcats' 23rd-ranked scoring defense (19.7 points per game) will have its hands full slowing down Landry Jones and company, especially after a heart-breaking loss to Texas Tech at home.
Unless something whacky happens at the top of the BCS standings, Bob Stoops' 6-1 Sooners are now playing solely for the Big 12 title and a sexy bowl bid. Jones continues to impress with nearly 2,600 yards passing and 21 touchdowns (five TDs in the loss to Tech in Week 8). The Sooners are averaging 44.3 points per game (seventh in FBS) and should have no problem reaching that threshold considering the Wildcats have allowed lesser opponents to score 21 or more points in four out of their seven games this season.
Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Oklahoma at Kansas State 101 times and it's the Sooners winning 87.1 percent of the time by an average score of 38-24.
Michigan State at Nebraska
Sparty shocked and awed our college football simulation engine with their last-second, Hail Mary full of grace heave into the end zone that ricocheted off a face mask and into the hands of Keith Nichol. A few minutes later, an instant replay overturned the referees' call on the field and a late fourth quarter rally by Wisconsin was erased. It's hard to simulate that outcome, even with a highly successful (77.1 percent accuracy straight up) simulation engine.
For Michigan State's next trick and bid to secure the top spot in the Big Ten's Legends Division, the Spartans must beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Kirk Cousins played a nearly flawless game against the Badgers; finishing 22 of 31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. State's offensive efficiency can exploit a once-dominant Nebraska defense, now ranked 54th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, on Saturday.
The Cornhuskers come off a beat down of lowly Minnesota 41-14. Rex Burkehead, a hero in the team's rally against Ohio State three weeks ago, has emerged as the team's leading rusher ahead of Taylor Martinez. On 130 carries, Burkehead has racked up 752 yards and 10 touchdowns.
We simulated the Spartans and Cornhuskers 101 times and it's Michigan State walking out of Lincoln with a win 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-23.
College Football Week 9
|@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes||82.2||31|
|North Carolina State Wolfpack||20.8||23||Boxscore|
|@ Florida State Seminoles||79.2||33|
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||35.6||25||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina Tar Heels||64.4||29|
|Boston College Eagles||44.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ Maryland Terrapins||55.4||23|
|@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||30.7||20|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||82.2||34||Boxscore|
|@ Duke Blue Devils||17.8||21|
|@ Pittsburgh Panthers||72.3||26|
|@ Louisville Cardinals||38.6||22|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||88.1||31||Boxscore|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||11.9||20|
|@ Michigan Wolverines||62.4||32|
|Illinois Fighting Illini||46.5||22||Boxscore|
|@ Penn State Nittany Lions||53.5||24|
|Michigan State Spartans||64.4||27||Boxscore|
|@ Nebraska Cornhuskers||35.6||23|
|@ Ohio State Buckeyes||24.3||20|
|@ Indiana Hoosiers||22.8||23|
|@ Minnesota Golden Gophers||7.9||13|
|Ball State Cardinals||39.6||24||Boxscore|
|@ Western Michigan Broncos||60.4||27|
|@ Miami (OH) RedHawks||59.4||23|
|Bowling Green Falcons||47.5||21||Boxscore|
|@ Kent State Golden Flashes||52.5||22|
|Central Michigan Chippewas||86.1||31||Boxscore|
|@ Akron Zips||13.9||17|
|Washington State Cougars||5.0||20||Boxscore|
|@ Oregon Ducks||95.0||43|
|@ Arizona State Sun Devils||84.2||32|
|Oregon State Beavers||35.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ Utah Utes||64.4||25|
|@ Washington Huskies||51.5||27|
|California Golden Bears||60.4||26||Boxscore|
|@ UCLA Bruins||39.6||21|
|@ USC Trojans||37.1||28|
|@ Auburn Tigers||71.3||30|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||60.9||26|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||58.9||23||Boxscore|
|@ Tennessee Volunteers||41.1||20|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||80.2||29||Boxscore|
|@ Kentucky Wildcats||19.8||18|
|@ Vanderbilt Commodores||6.9||13|
|San Jose State Spartans||27.7||23||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||72.3||31|
|@ Idaho Vandals||16.8||21|
|Nevada Wolf Pack||89.1||34||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||10.9||17|
|@ Army Black Knights||95.0||43|
|@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish||78.2||32|
|@ Texas Longhorns||95.0||34|
|Iowa State Cyclones||24.8||23||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Tech Red Raiders||75.2||32|
|@ Oklahoma State Cowboys||72.3||40|
|@ Texas A&M Aggies||66.3||29|
|@ Kansas State Wildcats||12.9||24|
|@ UCF Knights||95.0||39|
|@ Houston Cougars||82.2||41|
|Tulane Green Wave||31.7||27||Boxscore|
|@ East Carolina Pirates||68.3||34|
|@ Marshall Thundering Herd||55.4||27|
|Southern Methodist Mustangs||48.5||32||Boxscore|
|@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane||51.5||34|
|Southern Miss Golden Eagles||82.2||35||Boxscore|
|@ UTEP Miners||17.8||24|
|@ San Diego State Aztecs||89.1||30|
|Brigham Young Cougars||21.8||24||Boxscore|
|@ TCU Horned Frogs||78.2||34|
|Colorado State Rams||76.2||29||Boxscore|
|@ UNLV Rebels||23.8||20|
|Air Force Falcons||95.0||36||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico Lobos||5.0||11|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||34.2||22||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks||65.8||29|
|@ FIU Golden Panthers||63.4||29|
|North Texas Mean Green||36.1||27||Boxscore|
|@ Arkansas State Red Wolves||63.9||31|
|Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||52.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||47.5||24|
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