Who Claims the Big East Crown?
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It's not often a conference can claim its tournament's semifinal could theoretically feature higher-ranked teams than the national Final Four. Yet the Big East can make such a proclamation during the 2010-11 season with minimal objection or condemnation.
With nine teams already taking residence in the AP poll heading into the conference's competition at Madison Square Garden this week, several bracketologists foresee the uber-league sending 11 teams to the Big Dance. To give that figure illumination, some forecast the SEC, ACC and Pac-10, all historical powerhouses, to push 13 squads combined.
Although depth remains the league's greatest asset (to note: Jim Calhoun's Connecticut Huskies, ranked No. 21 in the country, are a No. 9 seed in the Big East tourney), there are a few teams that rise above the proverbial fray. The Pittsburgh Panthers finished as regular-season champs with a 15-3 conference mark, highlighted by wins against Syracuse, Connecticut and a season-sweep of Villanova. Featuring one of the best backcourts in the nation with guards Ashton Gibbs (16.4 points per game) and Brad Wanamaker (11.9 ppg, 5.2 assists per game), Jamie Dixon's Panthers should be in line for a No. 1 seed in next week's NCAA tournament with a decent showing in New York.
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The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are another team with No. 1 seed aspirations. With the departure of All-American Luke Harangody, many prognosticated the Domers to dwell in the bottom half of the Big East standings. But thanks to the breakout play of Ben Hansbrough (18.5 ppg, 4.2 apg) and sharpshooting of Tim Abromaitis (15.2 ppg, 41.9 percent from behind the arc), the Irish finished the season with a 25-5 record, accentuated with victories at Pittsburgh and an overtime thriller against Louisville.
Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino's troops could entice the NCAA Selection Committee with a solid run this week. Louisville has an impressive resume of its own, with victories against Pittsburgh and Syracuse to its credit. Senior guard Preston Knowles (14.5 ppg) paces the Cardinals, with help from Kyle Kuric (10.8 ppg) and Peyton Siva (9.9 ppg, 5 apg).
The three aforementioned teams head into this week's festivities as tournament favorites. Yet, as anyone who has observed Big East basketball can attest, each team poses as a formidable foe. With an overabundance of aptitude throughout the league, predicting a conference champion can become an arduous task. Thanks to the WhatIfSports college basketball simulation engine, we were able to project who would be cutting down the nets in the Garden on Saturday night. We simulated each tournament game 101 times and generated each team's chances of winning (W%) and average score.
Big East Opening Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| DePaul Blue Demons | 13.7 | 57 |
| Connecticut Huskies | 86.3 | 70 |
Big East Opening Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 56.4 | 67 |
| Seton Hall Pirates | 43.6 | 65 |
Big East Opening Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| South Florida Bulls | 28.7 | 62 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 71.3 | 68 |
Big East Opening Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Providence Friars | 29.7 | 72 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 70.3 | 78 |
No big surprises in the first round, as Marquette's win should solidify an at-large berth. The USF-Villanova matchup will be the one to watch on Tuesday, as Jay Wright and the Wildcats finished the season in a free fall, losing nine of their last 14 ballgames. On the opposite end of that spectrum lies Seton Hall, which enters the tournament with some momentum thanks to upsets over St. John's and Marquette.
Big East Second Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Connecticut Huskies | 36.6 | 64 |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 63.4 | 67 |
Big East Second Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 42.6 | 66 |
| St. John's Red Storm | 57.4 | 71 |
Big East Second Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Villanova Wildcats | 51.5 | 71 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 48.5 | 69 |
Big East Second Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 54.4 | 73 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 45.6 | 71 |
Although it has the higher seed, Georgetown, sans guard Chris Wright, over Connecticut is our first shocker of the tournament. Villanova looks to be back on the right track after disposing of Cincinnati, and West Virginia, fresh off its dramatic win against Louisville on Senior Day, is sent home early thanks to Jimmy Butler and the Golden Eagles. And you're dreaming if you think the Red Storm are losing in front of a surely raucous and partisan Garden crowd.
Big East Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 48.5 | 68 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 51.5 | 69 |
Big East Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| St. John's Red Storm | 21.8 | 65 |
| Syracuse Orange | 78.2 | 72 |
Big East Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Villanova Wildcats | 37.6 | 69 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 62.4 | 73 |
Big East Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 36.6 | 72 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 63.4 | 76 |
All of the top seeds take care of business, with Pittsburgh squeaking out a W against a feisty Hoyas squad. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals show any lingering effects from their epic collapse in Morgantown, as well as how Syracuse, a notoriously shaky away group, handles the hostile environment of a pro-St. John's arena.
Big East Final Four | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Syracuse Orange | 37.6 | 70 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 62.4 | 72 |
Big East Final Four | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Louisville Cardinals | 55.4 | 73 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 44.6 | 72 |
Louisville wins the rematch against Notre Dame, while Pittsburgh regains its form after a scare from Georgetown in its opening game. Should it come to fruition, a Cardinals-Irish Matchup would be an engaging showcase of divergent philosophies, as Louisville's up-tempo, fast-paced pattern stands in contrast to Notre Dame's infamous shot clock-burning approach.
Big East Championship | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Louisville Cardinals | 54.3 | 71 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 45.7 | 70 |
When these teams met on Feb. 27, the game earned nationwide recognition for the premature celebration of a Cardinals cheerleader, allowing the Panthers a desperation heave to force double overtime. Discounting cheerleader interference, Louisville claims the Big East crown with a 71-70 win over Pittsburgh.
Check out our 2011 Big Ten Tournament Predictions
Check out our 2011 Big 12 Tournament Predictions
Joel Beall is a Assistant Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at jbeall@whatifsports.com.



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