College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions

Week 10 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
October 29, 2012

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oregon at USC

In a game where Marqise Lee racked up 345 receiving yards (on 16 receptions) and 469 all-purpose yards, it's hard to fathom USC losing to any team, let alone Arizona (1-3 in the Pac-12 heading into Week 9). However, the Trojans' 618 yards of total offense is watered down when the Wildcats boast 588 total yards and force five (5!) turnovers, three fumbles and two interceptions. You play to win the game, but you need the ball to win the game in a shootout like the one last Saturday in Tuscon.

Besides the damning loss to USC's national championship hopes, why does this loss to Arizona matter? Well, the Trojans' Week 10 opponent, Oregon, beat the Wildcats 49-0 in late September. The Ducks (8-0) are steamrolling the opposition by an average score of 53-19. The offense is third in the country in rushing (330 yards per game) behind traditional run-oriented offenses Army and Air Force and has scored the most rushing touchdowns in the country (34). Kenjon Barner paces the offense with 974 yards on 141 carries (6.9 yards per rush) with 14 touchdowns. He's one of four Ducks with over 350 rushing yards to-date.

As for USC, the aforementioned Lee already has 76 receptions for 1,129 yards (141.1 rec. yards per game, 2nd in NCAA) with 10 touchdowns (second in NCAA). Quarterback Matt Barkley is completing over 65 percent of his passes for over 2,200 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Without question, the Trojans' main goal on Saturday is slowing down the Ducks' ground game. USC is 29th in the country in rush defense, allowing just over 123 yards per game, but only six touchdowns via the ground.

We simulated the Ducks and Trojans 101 times and it's Oregon coming away with the win 57.4 percent of the time by an average score of 29-27.

College Football Week 10
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Boston College Eagles32.720Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons67.326 
Virginia Cavaliers32.719Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack67.324 
Virginia Tech Hokies39.624Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes60.425 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets55.426Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins44.623 
Clemson Tigers58.431Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils41.626 
Temple Owls32.221Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals67.826 
Syracuse Orange48.523Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats51.524 
Connecticut Huskies49.520Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls50.522 
Illinois Fighting Illini10.914Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes89.128 
Nebraska Cornhuskers53.524Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans46.521 
Michigan Wolverines59.425Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers40.621 
Penn State Nittany Lions64.423Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers35.619 
Iowa Hawkeyes67.327Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers32.722 
Massachusetts Minutemen13.915Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies86.129 
Eastern Michigan Eagles17.316Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats82.727 
Akron Zips18.815Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes81.228 
Miami (OH) RedHawks61.924Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls38.120 
Western Michigan Broncos66.331Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas33.725 
Arizona State Sun Devils43.624Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers56.426 
Washington Huskies49.524Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears50.525 
Washington State Cougars49.525Boxscore
@ Utah Utes50.526 
Arizona Wildcats55.426Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins44.625 
Oregon Ducks57.429Boxscore
@ USC Trojans42.627 
Stanford Cardinal84.228Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes15.816 
Troy Trojans10.918Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers89.134 
New Mexico State Aggies20.316Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers79.727 
Missouri Tigers28.716Boxscore
@ Florida Gators71.323 
Mississippi Rebels31.719Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs68.325 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane46.026Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks54.028 
Texas A&M Aggies55.425Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs44.622 
Vanderbilt Commodores67.821Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats32.215 
Alabama Crimson Tide74.324Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers25.718 
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners15.822Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs84.237 
Texas State Bobcats21.819Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies78.228 
San Jose State Spartans68.329Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals31.722 
Pittsburgh Panthers23.820Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish76.229 
Florida Atlantic Owls23.818Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen76.225 
Air Force Falcons70.328Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights29.720 
Kansas Jayhawks34.723Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears65.328 
TCU Horned Frogs39.626Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers60.429 
Oklahoma State Cowboys40.623Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats59.426 
Texas Longhorns44.624Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders55.426 
Oklahoma Sooners68.328Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones31.723 
Memphis Tigers25.721Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd74.329 
UAB Blazers38.621Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles61.425 
Southern Methodist Mustangs47.525Boxscore
@ UCF Knights52.526 
Houston Cougars53.529Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates46.528 
Rice Owls54.024Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave46.023 
Hawaii Warriors10.917Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs89.130 
San Diego State Aztecs27.723Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos72.331 
Colorado State Rams32.720Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys67.324 
New Mexico Lobos46.524Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels53.526 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns41.626Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks58.429 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders46.524Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers53.525 
FIU Golden Panthers65.327Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars34.721 
Arkansas State Red Wolves74.329Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green25.723 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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