College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions

Week 11 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
November 5, 2012

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oregon State at Stanford

If you scanned any of the Pac-12 box scores from Week 10 or any of Oregon's this season, this may not come as a surprise to you. Nine of the 12 teams in the conference average more than 24 points per game with 10 of those 12 squads allowing 22 or more points per game. In other words, defense is optional for the majority of the Pac-12 with the exception of two teams: Oregon State (18.1 points allowed per game) and Stanford (16.6 points allowed per game).

The Beavers and Cardinal both excel against the rush with both units ranked in the top five nationally, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game. Unfortunately, as is expected, the two schools' pass defense isn't that stout. Oregon State is 77th against the pass, allowing more than 247 yards per game. However, they have picked off 14 passes compared to eight touchdowns allowed. Likewise, Stanford allows over 266 yards via the pass each game, but have 11 interceptions with nine touchdowns allowed.

OSU quarterback Cody Vaz took the starting gig away from Sean Mannion after he threw four picks in a loss to Washington. Mannion missed two previous games after undergoing knee surgery. Coach Riley said last week Vaz is playing just a bit better right now. He passed for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick against Arizona State last Saturday. He's thrown seven touchdowns with one interception, while completing 55.9 percent of his passes.

As has been the case in the past, the Cardinal are balanced on offense with a passing game averaging just over 200 yards passing and a rushing attack that averages over 166 yards per game. Stepfan Taylor remains the workhorse in Stanford's backfield with 206 carries for 947 yards and eight touchdowns.

We simulated the Cardinal and Beavers 101 times and it's the Cardinal winning 51.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24-23.

College Football Week 11
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Maryland Terrapins21.822Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers78.231 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets41.624Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels58.428 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons46.020Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack54.021 
Florida State Seminoles62.425Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies37.620 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes62.425Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers37.621 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish87.131Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles12.916 
Army Black Knights14.915Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights85.130 
Cincinnati Bearcats55.422Boxscore
@ Temple Owls44.620 
Louisville Cardinals56.926Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange43.123 
Pittsburgh Panthers59.423Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies40.620 
Purdue Boilermakers41.623Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes58.424 
Penn State Nittany Lions41.122Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers58.924 
Northwestern Wildcats43.623Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines56.424 
Wisconsin Badgers59.426Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers40.623 
Minnesota Golden Gophers60.422Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini39.618 
Bowling Green Falcons39.122Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats60.925 
Massachusetts Minutemen40.119Boxscore
@ Akron Zips59.923 
Ball State Cardinals48.528Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets51.529 
Kent State Golden Flashes59.926Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks40.120 
Central Michigan Chippewas64.426Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles35.621 
Western Michigan Broncos67.328Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls32.724 
Colorado Buffaloes24.822Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats75.230 
Arizona State Sun Devils41.626Boxscore
@ USC Trojans58.430 
Utah Utes43.122Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies56.924 
Oregon State Beavers48.523Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal51.524 
UCLA Bruins68.328Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars31.722 
Oregon Ducks80.231Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears19.819 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns17.817Boxscore
@ Florida Gators82.229 
Texas A&M Aggies26.719Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide73.329 
Mississippi State Bulldogs28.718Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers71.325 
Missouri Tigers40.622Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers59.423 
Arkansas Razorbacks40.619Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks59.421 
Vanderbilt Commodores48.520Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels51.521 
Georgia Bulldogs86.127Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers13.916 
McNeese State Cowboys 5.010Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners95.037 
San Jose State Spartans72.331Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies27.723 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs89.135Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats10.918 
Idaho Vandals 5.916Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars94.133 
Kansas Jayhawks27.723Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders72.332 
Baylor Bears30.725Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners69.331 
Iowa State Cyclones34.220Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns65.826 
West Virginia Mountaineers40.624Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys59.427 
Kansas State Wildcats68.327Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs31.722 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles30.722Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs69.329 
Tulane Green Wave54.525Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers45.523 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane63.430Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars36.626 
Marshall Thundering Herd70.329Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers29.720 
UCF Knights76.229Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners23.820 
Air Force Falcons34.721Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs65.325 
UNLV Rebels49.021Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams51.022 
Fresno State Bulldogs53.525Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack46.523 
Wyoming Cowboys68.825Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos31.219 
Boise State Broncos95.033Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors 5.013 
South Alabama Jaguars30.719Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green69.326 
Florida Atlantic Owls34.721Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers65.326 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46.524Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves53.526 
Navy Midshipmen62.928Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans37.126 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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