College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Week 4 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
September 17, 2012

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Clemson at Florida State

If you count Murray State (outscored 124-51 to-date) and Savannah State (outscored 138-0 to-date) as opponents, Florida State has outscored the opposition 176-3 through the first three weeks. So, the Seminoles lead all of college football in scoring defense, allowing the rare 1.0 point per game.

This week, Jimbo Fisher's team looks to avenge a 35-30 loss at Clemson in 2011.

The running back by committee isn't just for NFL teams as a RBBC has emerged inside Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State's Chris Thompson and James Wilder have combined for 474 rush yards on 50 carries (9.48 yards per rush). That's pretty good. Quarterback E.J. Manuel has thrown for 525 yards, six touchdowns with only one pick.

Clemson's Week 1, 26-19, win over Auburn would hold a little more weight had "War Eagle" avoided overtime against Louisiana-Monroe (won 31-28) at home last Saturday. The following week, the ACC Tigers allowed Ball State to rack up 27 points, while lighting up their Cardinals defense for 52. So, while the offense is clicking, the defense is still suspect heading into Week 4.

Tajh Boyd, who posted three touchdown passes in the 2011 matchup, has already thrown for over 700 yards with six touchdowns. In the backfield, Andre Ellington has rushed for 328 yards (6.2 yards per rush) and four touchdowns.

We simulated the Tigers and Seminoles 101 times and it's FSU coming out on top 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 27-22.

College Football Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Citadel Bulldogs 5.09Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack95.048 
East Carolina Pirates19.819Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels80.229 
Bowling Green Falcons20.817Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies79.227 
Memphis Tigers21.819Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils78.231 
Army Black Knights25.718Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons74.326 
Clemson Tigers34.722Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles65.327 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes35.123Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets64.926 
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 5.08Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers95.048 
Idaho State Bengals 5.07Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers95.051 
South Dakota Coyotes 5.08Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats95.050 
Eastern Michigan Eagles 5.512Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans95.529 
UAB Blazers10.916Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes89.135 
Central Michigan Chippewas17.817Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes82.229 
UTEP Miners21.820Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers78.231 
Temple Owls45.519Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions54.521 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs47.523Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini52.524 
Syracuse Orange67.327Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers32.720 
Norfolk State Spartans 5.09Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats95.048 
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 5.07Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets95.044 
Massachusetts Minutemen 9.412Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks90.630 
Kansas Jayhawks47.023Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies53.024 
Kent State Golden Flashes54.018Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls46.017 
Connecticut Huskies60.424Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos39.621 
South Florida Bulls70.329Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals29.721 
California Golden Bears18.823Boxscore
@ USC Trojans81.233 
Colorado Buffaloes26.220Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars73.828 
Arizona Wildcats33.725Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks66.331 
Oregon State Beavers45.524Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins54.525 
Utah Utes54.522Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils45.521 
South Carolina State Bulldogs 5.08Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies95.050 
Akron Zips 5.012Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers95.032 
Florida Atlantic Owls 5.09Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide95.039 
South Alabama Jaguars 6.413Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs93.634 
Vanderbilt Commodores14.915Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs85.130 
Kentucky Wildcats19.812Boxscore
@ Florida Gators80.223 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights35.119Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks64.925 
Missouri Tigers38.119Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks61.924 
LSU Tigers85.128Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers14.916 
Northwestern Oklahoma State Rangers 5.09Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners95.034 
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 5.07Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats95.034 
New Mexico Lobos33.722Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies66.326 
Wyoming Cowboys76.227Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals23.816 
Virginia Military Keydets 5.09Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen95.042 
Michigan Wolverines45.523Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish54.524 
Maryland Terrapins18.819Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers81.231 
Virginia Cavaliers21.822Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs78.230 
Kansas State Wildcats26.721Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners73.329 
Fresno State Bulldogs47.526Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane52.528 
Mississippi Rebels64.423Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave35.618 
Marshall Thundering Herd64.428Boxscore
@ Rice Owls35.624 
San Jose State Spartans33.722Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs66.328 
Brigham Young Cougars40.124Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos59.926 
Air Force Falcons70.826Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels29.218 
Utah State Aggies75.227Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams24.819 
Nevada Wolf Pack76.227Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors23.819 
Alcorn State Braves 5.07Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves95.044 
Troy Trojans42.626Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green57.427 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles55.922Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers44.121 
Baylor Bears57.930Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks42.125 
Louisville Cardinals76.230Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers23.820 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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