College Football Week 6 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 6 Picks and Predictions

Week 6 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
September 29, 2014

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

We take the bias out of the argument and let the stats tell the story. Our college football simulation predictions are generated based on the statistical DNA of the two teams squaring off each week. Why does this matter? Well, in the case of California's and Colorado's 59-56 barnburner in Berkeley over the weekend, how those stats were compiled makes a fascinating story.

Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau passed for 455 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. California quarterback Jaref Goff passed for 458 yards with seven touchdowns with one interception. Nearly identical stat lines with the exception that Goff completed 24 of 42 passes, while Liufau needed 46 of 67 passes to reach his final marks. So, seven of Goff's 24 completions (29 percent) were for six points.

Game of the Week: No. 3 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss

Another week, another monster matchup in the SEC West Division. Alabama and Ole Miss have a few things in common through the first month of the season, a pass-heavy offense with top 10 scoring defensive units.

However, unlike in years past, it's the Rebels who boast the statistically stronger scoring defense – 8.5 PAPG, third-best in the country - heading into the contest. To be fair, if not for a stumble out of the gate against West Virginia, the Crimson Tide's defense would be right there with Hugh Freeze's crew. Per the norm, Nick Saban's defense has looked dominant the last three games. It's worth noting, the combined records of Ole Miss' opponents is currently 7-11, while the Tide's is 7-8.

On offense, Ole Miss is led by quarterback Bo Wallace who has started for the Rebels the last three years. He's completing 71 percent of his passes for nearly 1,300 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core have combined for 37 receptions and 584 yards with seven touchdowns.

The ground game ranks 75th in the country, but is a two-man tandem of Jaylen Walton and I'Tavius Mathers who average 5.9 yards per carry with five scores to-date.

The Tide lost A.J. McCarron, but reloaded with Blake Sims behind center. The senior trigger has tossed eight touchdowns with only one interception his last three games and is completing more than 73 percent of his passes.

Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon carry the load in the backfield with 110 carries for 604 yards with only four scores. Kenyan Drake is acting as the closer with four touchdowns on the year on only 22 carries through four games.

We simulated the Tide and Rebels 101 times and the computers like Alabama to win 54.5 percent of the time by an average score of 23-20.

College Football Week 6 Predictions
MatchupWin %Avg. Score 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons15.814.0Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles84.228.9 
North Carolina State Wolfpack30.720.0Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers69.326.5 
Pittsburgh Panthers45.519.4Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers54.520.0 
Virginia Tech Hokies50.520.8Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels49.520.3 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes55.422.1Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets44.620.7 
Louisville Cardinals68.322.8Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange31.716.7 
Purdue Boilermakers31.223.0Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini68.828.1 
Nebraska Cornhuskers38.620.0Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans61.421.8 
North Texas Mean Green44.123.8Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers55.925.4 
Michigan Wolverines47.520.2Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights52.522.0 
Ohio State Buckeyes69.324.4Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins30.718.6 
Wisconsin Badgers75.724.3Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats24.315.9 
Eastern Michigan Eagles28.720.0Boxscore
@ Akron Zips71.327.9 
Buffalo Bulls33.722.5Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons66.326.8 
Kent State Golden Flashes35.621.9Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies64.427.7 
Massachusetts Minutemen49.020.2Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks51.019.8 
Ohio Bobcats52.525.0Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas47.523.7 
Toledo Rockets60.427.4Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos39.621.3 
Utah Utes20.319.3Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins79.727.7 
Arizona Wildcats28.721.5Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks71.328.9 
Arizona State Sun Devils39.122.5Boxscore
@ USC Trojans60.924.9 
California Golden Bears49.528.0Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars50.528.7 
Oregon State Beavers66.331.3Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes33.722.9 
Vanderbilt Commodores14.914.2Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs85.126.6 
LSU Tigers46.523.2Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers53.524.7 
Alabama Crimson Tide54.522.6Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels45.520.2 
Texas A&M Aggies57.425.1Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs42.622.9 
Florida Gators59.421.1Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers40.619.2 
South Carolina Gamecocks65.323.5Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats34.718.2 
Utah State Aggies24.318.6Boxscore
@ BYU Cougars75.724.8 
Stanford Cardinal41.624.3Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish58.425.0 
Ball State Cardinals60.426.5Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights39.622.8 
Texas Tech Red Raiders24.822.9Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats75.231.0 
Kansas Jayhawks25.716.8Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers74.324.8 
Iowa State Cyclones35.121.5Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys64.927.2 
Oklahoma Sooners63.924.7Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs36.120.2 
Baylor Bears66.328.1Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns33.721.5 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles27.218.9Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders72.826.2 
UAB Blazers31.725.2Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers68.330.8 
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors34.722.5Boxscore
@ Rice Owls65.326.7 
UTEP Miners36.622.4Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs63.425.4 
New Mexico Lobos44.626.5Boxscore
@ UTSA Roadrunners55.428.0 
Florida Atlantic Owls77.227.5Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers22.817.3 
Marshall Thundering Herd80.235.3Boxscore
@ Old Dominion Monarchs19.825.3 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane37.623.9Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams62.428.1 
UNLV Rebels43.625.7Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans56.427.1 
Navy Midshipmen44.623.0Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons55.425.0 
San Diego State Aztecs55.426.3Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs44.624.7 
Boise State Broncos59.428.3Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack40.624.5 
Georgia State Panthers34.723.8Boxscore
@ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns65.327.5 
Idaho Vandals40.621.9Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats59.425.9 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks45.524.2Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves54.525.3 
Georgia Southern Eagles55.427.6Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies44.626.7 
South Alabama Jaguars71.327.4Boxscore
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers28.720.2 
SMU Mustangs10.915.5Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates89.135.3 
Memphis Tigers45.022.0Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats55.026.1 
UCF Knights48.025.3Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars52.025.8 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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