Week 6 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
We take the bias out of the argument and let the stats tell the story. Our college football simulation predictions are generated based on the statistical DNA of the two teams squaring off each week. Why does this matter? Well, in the case of California's and Colorado's 59-56 barnburner in Berkeley over the weekend, how those stats were compiled makes a fascinating story.
Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau passed for 455 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. California quarterback Jaref Goff passed for 458 yards with seven touchdowns with one interception. Nearly identical stat lines with the exception that Goff completed 24 of 42 passes, while Liufau needed 46 of 67 passes to reach his final marks. So, seven of Goff's 24 completions (29 percent) were for six points.
Game of the Week: No. 3 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss
Another week, another monster matchup in the SEC West Division. Alabama and Ole Miss have a few things in common through the first month of the season, a pass-heavy offense with top 10 scoring defensive units.
However, unlike in years past, it's the Rebels who boast the statistically stronger scoring defense – 8.5 PAPG, third-best in the country - heading into the contest. To be fair, if not for a stumble out of the gate against West Virginia, the Crimson Tide's defense would be right there with Hugh Freeze's crew. Per the norm, Nick Saban's defense has looked dominant the last three games. It's worth noting, the combined records of Ole Miss' opponents is currently 7-11, while the Tide's is 7-8.
On offense, Ole Miss is led by quarterback Bo Wallace who has started for the Rebels the last three years. He's completing 71 percent of his passes for nearly 1,300 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core have combined for 37 receptions and 584 yards with seven touchdowns.
The ground game ranks 75th in the country, but is a two-man tandem of Jaylen Walton and I'Tavius Mathers who average 5.9 yards per carry with five scores to-date.
The Tide lost A.J. McCarron, but reloaded with Blake Sims behind center. The senior trigger has tossed eight touchdowns with only one interception his last three games and is completing more than 73 percent of his passes.
Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon carry the load in the backfield with 110 carries for 604 yards with only four scores. Kenyan Drake is acting as the closer with four touchdowns on the year on only 22 carries through four games.
We simulated the Tide and Rebels 101 times and the computers like Alabama to win 54.5 percent of the time by an average score of 23-20.
College Football Week 6 Predictions
|Matchup||Win %||Avg. Score|
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||15.8||14.0||Boxscore|
|@ Florida State Seminoles||84.2||28.9|
|North Carolina State Wolfpack||30.7||20.0||Boxscore|
|@ Clemson Tigers||69.3||26.5|
|@ Virginia Cavaliers||54.5||20.0|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||50.5||20.8||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina Tar Heels||49.5||20.3|
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||55.4||22.1||Boxscore|
|@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||44.6||20.7|
|@ Syracuse Orange||31.7||16.7|
|@ Illinois Fighting Illini||68.8||28.1|
|@ Michigan State Spartans||61.4||21.8|
|North Texas Mean Green||44.1||23.8||Boxscore|
|@ Indiana Hoosiers||55.9||25.4|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||52.5||22.0|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||69.3||24.4||Boxscore|
|@ Maryland Terrapins||30.7||18.6|
|@ Northwestern Wildcats||24.3||15.9|
|Eastern Michigan Eagles||28.7||20.0||Boxscore|
|@ Akron Zips||71.3||27.9|
|@ Bowling Green Falcons||66.3||26.8|
|Kent State Golden Flashes||35.6||21.9||Boxscore|
|@ Northern Illinois Huskies||64.4||27.7|
|@ Miami (OH) RedHawks||51.0||19.8|
|@ Central Michigan Chippewas||47.5||23.7|
|@ Western Michigan Broncos||39.6||21.3|
|@ UCLA Bruins||79.7||27.7|
|@ Oregon Ducks||71.3||28.9|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||39.1||22.5||Boxscore|
|@ USC Trojans||60.9||24.9|
|California Golden Bears||49.5||28.0||Boxscore|
|@ Washington State Cougars||50.5||28.7|
|Oregon State Beavers||66.3||31.3||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado Buffaloes||33.7||22.9|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||85.1||26.6|
|@ Auburn Tigers||53.5||24.7|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||54.5||22.6||Boxscore|
|@ Ole Miss Rebels||45.5||20.2|
|Texas A&M Aggies||57.4||25.1||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi State Bulldogs||42.6||22.9|
|@ Tennessee Volunteers||40.6||19.2|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||65.3||23.5||Boxscore|
|@ Kentucky Wildcats||34.7||18.2|
|Utah State Aggies||24.3||18.6||Boxscore|
|@ BYU Cougars||75.7||24.8|
|@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish||58.4||25.0|
|Ball State Cardinals||60.4||26.5||Boxscore|
|@ Army Black Knights||39.6||22.8|
|Texas Tech Red Raiders||24.8||22.9||Boxscore|
|@ Kansas State Wildcats||75.2||31.0|
|@ West Virginia Mountaineers||74.3||24.8|
|Iowa State Cyclones||35.1||21.5||Boxscore|
|@ Oklahoma State Cowboys||64.9||27.2|
|@ TCU Horned Frogs||36.1||20.2|
|@ Texas Longhorns||33.7||21.5|
|Southern Miss Golden Eagles||27.2||18.9||Boxscore|
|@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||72.8||26.2|
|@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||68.3||30.8|
|Hawaii Rainbow Warriors||34.7||22.5||Boxscore|
|@ Rice Owls||65.3||26.7|
|@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||63.4||25.4|
|New Mexico Lobos||44.6||26.5||Boxscore|
|@ UTSA Roadrunners||55.4||28.0|
|Florida Atlantic Owls||77.2||27.5||Boxscore|
|@ FIU Golden Panthers||22.8||17.3|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||80.2||35.3||Boxscore|
|@ Old Dominion Monarchs||19.8||25.3|
|Tulsa Golden Hurricane||37.6||23.9||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||62.4||28.1|
|@ San Jose State Spartans||56.4||27.1|
|@ Air Force Falcons||55.4||25.0|
|San Diego State Aztecs||55.4||26.3||Boxscore|
|@ Fresno State Bulldogs||44.6||24.7|
|Boise State Broncos||59.4||28.3||Boxscore|
|@ Nevada Wolf Pack||40.6||24.5|
|Georgia State Panthers||34.7||23.8||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns||65.3||27.5|
|@ Texas State Bobcats||59.4||25.9|
|@ Arkansas State Red Wolves||54.5||25.3|
|Georgia Southern Eagles||55.4||27.6||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||44.6||26.7|
|South Alabama Jaguars||71.3||27.4||Boxscore|
|@ Appalachian State Mountaineers||28.7||20.2|
|@ East Carolina Pirates||89.1||35.3|
|@ Cincinnati Bearcats||55.0||26.1|
|@ Houston Cougars||52.0||25.8|
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