The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

Final Four/Round 1

Final Four

Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Baylor

Championship

Kansas
Baylor

Champion

Kansas
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Kansas
98.9% 86.2% 67.1% 53.3% 35.6% 26.4%
1 Syracuse
96.4% 77.5% 61.8% 45.5% 26.4% 17.6%
3 Baylor
82.6% 60.7% 39.4% 25.3% 16.8% 8.7%
1 Duke
97.2% 62.9% 45.4% 24.8% 15.5% 6.2%
1 Kentucky
93.8% 59.0% 40.8% 25.5% 13.0% 4.9%
2 West Virginia
92.3% 59.1% 41.7% 24.1% 11.2% 4.9%
2 Villanova
96.6% 63.0% 31.1% 16.8% 10.3% 4.4%
4 Maryland
87.2% 60.4% 20.8% 13.6% 6.7% 3.2%
2 Ohio State
88.2% 50.3% 30.8% 10.6% 5.3% 2.3%
7 Brigham Young
68.4% 41.6% 24.2% 10.8% 4.3% 2.3%
9 Louisville
62.9% 25.0% 16.2% 7.8% 5.0% 2.0%
4 Wisconsin
81.6% 55.1% 25.7% 12.6% 5.8% 1.9%
2 Kansas State
89.1% 45.2% 23.7% 8.6% 3.6% 1.8%
3 Pittsburgh
79.9% 40.8% 20.1% 7.3% 2.1% 1.2%
3 Georgetown
76.7% 44.0% 21.2% 6.0% 2.2% 1.2%
8 Texas
61.8% 27.6% 15.9% 8.6% 3.0% 1.2%
10 Georgia Tech
59.8% 31.8% 18.8% 6.1% 2.5% 1.1%
12 Utah State
54.4% 39.3% 16.9% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9%
6 Marquette
64.3% 40.5% 18.0% 7.5% 3.0% 0.8%
6 Notre Dame
69.3% 26.2% 12.4% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7%
11 Minnesota
50.3% 27.6% 13.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6%
5 Texas A&M
45.6% 30.8% 10.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4%
6 Xavier
49.7% 27.1% 12.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4%
7 Clemson
46.8% 18.4% 9.5% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
8 California
37.1% 11.9% 6.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
10 Saint Mary's
60.3% 24.4% 9.1% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4%
12 UTEP
65.0% 30.3% 8.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4%
13 Murray State
52.4% 31.3% 8.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
3 New Mexico
65.8% 29.5% 11.0% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2%
5 Michigan St.
54.5% 21.3% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
5 Butler
35.0% 11.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
6 Tennessee
48.4% 24.3% 9.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2%
8 UNLV
65.6% 10.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2%
9 Wake Forest
38.2% 12.6% 6.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
9 Florida State
59.2% 14.5% 7.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2%
10 Missouri
53.3% 21.1% 12.1% 4.9% 1.7% 0.2%
10 Florida
31.6% 12.2% 5.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
11 SDSU
51.7% 26.7% 11.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
12 NMSU
45.5% 14.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
12 Cornell
57.9% 23.8% 6.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
4 Vanderbilt
47.7% 27.2% 8.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1%
7 Richmond
39.7% 12.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
7 Oklahoma St.
40.2% 16.0% 7.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%
11 Washington
35.7% 17.7% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
13 Siena
61.6% 20.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
14 Ohio
23.3% 5.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
4 Purdue
38.4% 9.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Temple
42.1% 14.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
8 Gonzaga
40.8% 7.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
9 Northern Iowa
34.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
11 Old Dominion
30.6% 6.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
13 Wofford
18.4% 6.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Houston
12.9% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Sam Houston
17.5% 6.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
14 Oakland
20.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Montana
34.2% 12.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
15 UCSB
11.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Robert Morris
3.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 North Texas
10.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Morgan State
7.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Winthrop
2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Vermont
3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Lehigh
1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 ETSU
6.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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