Tuesday, January 06, 2009
4:00 PM - 5:00 PM EST
The LIVE portion of this chat will begin on
Tuesday, January 06, 2009 at 4:00 PM EST.
On October 2nd, 2008, new recruits were generated with potential and new improvement growth curves and now that all worlds have recruits/players with potential, this is your opportunity to ask any questions!
Has the Work Ethic become valuable primarily for Offense and Defense. If a player reaches his potential, it seems that WE has little value other than for O&D. (jetsons - Hall of Famer - 9:38 AM)
Work ethic, along with practice and playing time, plays a role in how quickly a player will reach their potential in any given category.
any chance you guys are gonna add anything to work ethic improvements?say you offer a recruit the starting spot and them start them,shouldn't they increase their work ethic a little? (jang_a_lang - Hall of Famer - 9:39 AM)
That hasn't changed and is already in place - work ethic improves based on playing time and starts.
So, as I understand the new potential, it has not only changed the speed at which players prgress, but also all of the initial player ratings were redone(down) and the top ratings for players were redone as well(down). Can you give us more specifics to help us evaluate/recruit players? (aubie8 - Hall of Famer - 9:41 AM)
The initial ratings for new recruits have not changed at all.
part two:As it is now, it is just a real crap shoot away from semi knowing what a player would would be. I think in real life, its more of a combination between the two. As a coach, you pretty much know where a player will be throughout his career with one or two suprises that either really fail and one or two that really improve beyond, usually tied to their real life work ethic or attitude. (aubie8 - Hall of Famer - 9:51 AM)
Under the old system, coaches new exactly where a player would end up his Senior year simply based on his HS ratings and his work ethic. In real life, players with the same work ethic and starting ratings don't always end up looking exactly the same. This has numerous benefits - more impact underclassmen, low ratings that can be improved to a point of being useful and more diversity among rosters.
Just wondering if you guys have considered making international Future Star Scouting available in the future? (firemanrob - Hall of Famer - 9:51 AM)
At this time no, but it's something we'll revisit down the road.
Do rating caps change during a player's career - that is, could a player listed as low move to medium while his rating stays constant? Or will a maxed-out sophomore still be maxed out as a senior? (cornfused - Hall of Famer - 9:53 AM)
A player's maximum doesn't change as their career progresses. Once they've maxed out, they can not exceed it.
At least as far as the initial players using potential are concerned, it seems that DIII players will max out at lower ratings than was typical for DIII players under the old progression by their senior years. Was this an intended consequence of potential? (armst24 - Hall of Famer - 10:02 AM)
Overall, players will improve to the same levels as before - for DIII, what we're seeing is coaches that are used to focusing more on certain categories and completely ignoring others, e.g. your more likely to have a low-post player with very low ball handling and passing skills in DIII so coaches would put all of that practice time into low post moves or rebounding and those skills would just keep improving. Now, those skills are limited so coaches need to move that time into skills which haven't been practiced such as ball handling/passing/etc.
Can we expect the same rate of increase for their entire college career - or is their freshman year the big gainer? (crazyivan - Hall of Famer - 10:05 AM)
Good question - there's not a set answer for that - on the whole, you'll probably see the most gains during their freshman year but that's not always the case - as players get better they normally receive more playing time which increases their rate of improvement and it also increases their work ethic which in turn increases their rate of improvement as well.
if a player has "high" potential for a given category, does this mean they can reach 90+, or is there some other preset ceiling? (fuma102 - All-Star - 10:08 AM)
Varying categories of potential refer to how much improvement can be expected from a player relative to other players at the same level. For example, if you see a PF with a ball handling rating of 5 but high potential, that does not mean he can reach 90, that means that relative to other players with a 5 ball handling, he looks like he can improve more than average - that may mean he could end up to be a 30 or a 40 whereas the average player with similar skills will only reach a 20 or 25 (all else being equal).
Are there different levels of high potential? For instance if there are two guys with a 50 LP and high potential, could they have different caps? (redsoxrootr1 - All-Star - 10:12 AM)
Absolutely, yes and that's true of low and average as well. One of the changes you'll likely see in the near future is the addition of more detailed information coming from your scouting trips so instead of just high, you'd see something like "should be better than average", "high potential" or "very high potential" to reward coaches who spend the extra dollars to get extra information.
I have been reading this on the forums and also would like to know..when your AD emails you and describes the "upsides" to your players after the season is just underway, and you only see 4 categories..what does that mean in regards to the other areas he is not explaining?? shall we assume the player is just "average" in a core area if the AD is not listing a specific area? (canhockey - Hall of Famer - 10:16 AM)
Yes, if a skill is not specifically addressed, that means the player has average room for growth in that specific skill.
Does redshirting a player hurt his ability to reach his full potential in any way? (jpritchard - Hall of Famer - 11:50 AM)
No, it only increases the chances that players will be able to reach their potential by giving them more practice time.
Has the introduction of potential changed anything about when diminishing returns generally affect practice time? Does each minute of practice on a skill still start to have less impact above 20 or 25 mins? (metsmax - Hall of Famer - 11:52 AM)
No, for the most part it's still in the 20-25 minute range per practice category.
Is it fair to assume that a player with high potential and a low starting value in a specific category will continue to improve at the same rate during his jr and sr seasons that he does his freshman year as long as he hasn't reached or come close to his max and practise time is similar? Thanks. (hofhof - Hall of Famer - 11:55 AM)
No, the rate of improvement slows as a player approaches their potential (all else being equal - work ethic hasn't changed, playing time is the same, practice time is the same) but since you normally do see increases in all 3 of those areas as players mature, it's going to *possibly* help keep improvement at the same rate.
When the assistant coach gives his preseason assessment of where your freshmen are at in terms of growth potential, is he 100% accurate? (jpritchard - Hall of Famer - 11:56 AM)
Yes, he's accurate.
What if a player / coach doesn't take advantage of a "big upside" in his freshmen year due to needed study hall time, etc. Will they still have that "big upside" to potentially fulfill in the 2nd year or will it be gone? (ericbfor3 - All-Star - 11:58 AM)
Their potential won't change throughout their career so if they need to hit the books their freshman year, they can still show big gains with adequate practice and playing time later in their careers.
How much of a player's ability to achieve their ability is tied to playing time? For instance, if two players have a HIGH chance of improving a particular ability, would the advantage go to the guy playing 5 or 6 more minutes per game? Or is this something solely determined by practice time allocation? (sh0wtime99 - Hall of Famer - 12:03 PM)
In terms of importance, I'd put practice time at the top, closely followed by work ethic and then playing time.
Can you please advise what is the minimum number of minutes needed in an attribute to maintain that rating once that attribute has been "maxed out." Thank you. (gomiami1972 - Hall of Famer - 1:50 PM)
Sure, assuming average work ethic and playing time, for low post and perimeter, you need to maintain 3-4 minutes and for other skills you need to maintain 7-8 minutes.
Will players who were generated prior to the changes still develop at the old rate? By the time they are seniors, will they be essentially equal to the players built after the changes? (HRDude - Hall of Famer - 1:56 PM)
Yes, players that were generated pre-potential will still improve as they always have and the average senior under the old system will equivalent (in total) to the average senior under potential.
Is it guaranteed a player will reach his potential or is there a possibility that a lack of WE, playing time, starts, etc. will prevent him from reaching his potential? (coolman97865 - Hall of Famer - 1:57 PM)
There is no guarantee that a player will reach his potential - either due to poor practice settings, low work ethic, low playing time and/or just an enormouse amount of growth potential.
Regarding your earlier answer to redsoxrootr1 about future changes to the scouting trip info: Is the "should be better than average", "high potential" or "very high potential" already in place or will this be added along with the scouting trip info changes? (Weena - Hall of Famer - 2:00 PM)
This will be added as part of your scouting trips so you'll be able to get a more accurate understanding of a player's potential by watching him play basically giving you 9 possible classifications instead of 3 - (low low, mid low, high low, low average, average, high average, low high, mid high and high high).
Is there anything we as coaches can do to avoid the drops in potential that sometimes happen between recruiting and the AC report after the exhibition games? Why do player potentials change anyway? (Weena - Hall of Famer - 2:39 PM)
Yes, lots and lots of booster gifts. Ok, not really. Their potential isn't changing - it never changes, what's changing is how close they are to reaching their potential so if a player comes in with high potential in ball handling and after some practices and exhibition games his ball handling has improved, it may have changed his classification from high to average which means that he was on the low end of the high classification and now he's on the high end of the average classification.
I have my Asst. Coach e-mail me for the last three season telling to scout this state and when I do there is no D III player. Why would he have me do that? (coach25 - Veteran - 2:40 PM)
You should submit a ticket because I've never seen the assistant coach tell a coach to scout specific states.
There seems to be a budding forum consensus that potential was changed after the first season of it was completed. Is this true? If so, what has changed? If not, does that mean that you have not tweaked it since the initial rollout? (wisefella99 - Hall of Famer - 2:48 PM)
Yes, it was changed on November 25th - we added "maximum physical daily improvement" that put a cap on how much any player could improve in stamina, athleticism, speed and durability over a given period. That's why the first season of players with potential saw some players show huge gains because those categories were not being capped.
Is it safe to say that "Potential" can be defined as the difference between where a player's rating is now and where it can max out? (mlatsko1 - Hall of Famer - 2:49 PM)
Yes, that's how I would define it - it's their potential for improvement.
How can we tell before applying for a position if the players were are going to end up getting along with the team will progress at a high rate or low rate? (schroedess26 - All-Star - 4:08 PM)
Other than looking at how much they've improved already (which you can see), you can not know how much further they have to go. After the season begins you'll receive an email from your assistant coach giving you an assessment of all the returning players with potential.
Hard Ball Dynasty shows us the historic player ratings season to season for each players profile when you click it. In addition to performance stats, can we please get the same info for the Hoops Dynasty profiles? Can the history also include the scouting service report if the college purchased it for the given player when he was recruited? (reggiedeal - Hall of Famer - 4:08 PM)
It's definitely something we're looking at adding to HD.
Do the High School player rankings factor in potential? (jetsonsa - Hall of Famer - 4:09 PM)
No, potential is not factored into recruiting rankings.
I'm a D3 owner, and it's seems very hard to find a decent recruit in D3 without spending all of your money on FSS looking for more than the recruit has Low in just about every catagory. Is there going to be a little bit more balance in the selection of quality or normal recruits in D3? (Helamen - Hall of Famer - 4:13 PM)
You have to keep in mind that FSS costs drop substantially after signings begin so many coaches choose to scout their state at the beginning of recruiting and then wait to spread out after signings.
Will a player's sttributes continue to rise, even though the AD is questioning a player's practice time? And is the "standard" seven minutes enough to keep ever player's attributes at a level which doesn't fluctuate? (bigtexhawk - Hall of Famer - 4:17 PM)
Yes, but at a much slower rate and usually not by much more. When I receive those emails, I normally lower the minutes to 8-9 minutes.
Is there a starting point where potential no longer applies? I am tracking a Center that has a 94 in Athl and is rated Low. Does that mean that compared to others, there are some 94 Athl skills that are average or High? (Weena - Hall of Famer - 4:19 PM)
In that case all players with a 94 athleticism would be shown as low because they just don't have much room for growth.
I was told by CS that passing increases at a slower rate than perimeter (all things being equal). What categories are faster and slower developing? (spectarticus - All-Star - 4:25 PM)
You have low post and perimeter which require less practice time, then you have the physical skills such as stamina, athleticism, speed and durability which are capped, free throw shooting which has it's own improvement curve and then all the other skills improve along the same improvement curve. I'm not sure if that exactly answers what you were asking but that's how the curves are grouped.
without using the scouting service for a guide on the players,does a scouting trip reveal the same info on potential and improvement ? (tnto - Hall of Famer - 4:27 PM)
Yes, you can get the same information by using scouting trips.
From a cost standpoint, irl information can be obtained cheap from Scout.com, and rivals.com. FSS is patterend after campros. Nationally, Camp Pros costs $500 a year irl, not even a drop in the bucket for even a DIII school. Why not make FSS affordable. it seems it once again favors those schools in dense areas since schools are more likely to scout local players. (Rails - Hall of Famer - 4:31 PM)
You also have to keep in mind that in real life coaches are not presented with exact skill ratings on every single possible recruit in the country without spending a single penny as HD coaches are. For those coaches that want additional information, they can use FSS and pay to do so - how much they pay can vary widely based on the point in recruiting in which they choose to hire the service.
One of my DI potential players maxed out in DEF at 67 and Stamina at 73...so I dropped the FW and C categories down to 10 minutes each to focus on other attributes. He immediately started LOSING rating in stamina and defense. It's not like these ratings are other-worldly, only sitting in the 60's and 70's. Has potential somehow changed the minimum practice required in order to simply maintain a rating? 10 minutes has always been and should be more than enough. (gomiami1972 - Hall of Famer - 4:33 PM)
It is more than enough - there was an issue with players who maxed out then showing a single point loss due to a rounding issue. I believe that was fixed already.
what does high potential mean for a single digit rating? for ages we have learned that a rating of 1 or 2 cant ever improve enough to merit practice time. Does high potential on a rating of 1 mean that it could go all the way to 5 or does it mean that it could get to 20 or 30 or the like? (metsmax - Hall of Famer - 4:35 PM)
It means that you can see substantial improvement in that skill - unlike the old system which made it nearly impossible to improve a low rated skill.
This seems like something I have only seen recently, but some freshmen in my conference are gaining about 4 points a day on their overall improvement. Is there something they are going that I am not or is this a new trend with the introduction of Future Stars? (85StillBurns - All-Star - 4:37 PM)
It really depends on where their areas of potential are and how far they are from reaching their potential in addition to the variables mentioned above (work ethic, playing time and practice time).
Why do freshman improve at a much higher rate than any other class? (craig218 - Hall of Famer - 4:39 PM)
Normally you're going to see freshman with the biggest difference between their current ratings and their maximum ratings so that has a lot to do with it - the same reason it's easier for a 25 handicap golfer to get to a 20 than for a 6 to get to a 1.
Is there a way to find out player maximums, or will it just be a stop in increases? If its just a stop, how many days of practice will it take to notice him hitting his max? (spoonnt - Hall of Famer - 4:41 PM)
In addition to noticing a slowdown in improvement rate, you'll receive an email from your assistant coach suggesting you think about moving that extra time to work on another skill. When you receive that, the player is normally at, or close to, their maximum in that category.
Before FSS, some categories were very difficult to improve over the course of a season/career. Athleticism, Speed & Defense being the three that immediately come to mind. With the implementation of FSS, how have these previously "slow growth" categories changed? And how much improvement can I expect in each category over the course of a season (assuming average practice time, work ethic etc.) (glitter - Hall of Famer - 4:43 PM)
Any rating now, even with very low starting values, can be improved with potential players (unlike the old system). How much you can expect to see is going to vary widely based on all of the variables mentioned above.
Has prestige of school taken a hit with the new formula with potential? It appears at the D3 we are not able to get drop downs as easily. I have an A+ school and was repeatedly denied by D2 kids last recruiting cycle. (cardscoach - Hall of Famer - 4:44 PM)
No, the introduction of potential had no impact on recruiting from that perspective.
Some of the recent additions such as "Word on the Street", childhood preference, and distance preference don't seem to have much, if any value. Any thoughts on either beefing them up or dropping them? (Weena - Hall of Famer - 4:47 PM)
That's by design, they're not intended to be beefy, more like a side dish or even a condiment. If all else is equal, they can make the difference in a recruiting battle but they are not intended to be big difference makers out of the gate since that would take much of the recruiting process out of the coach's hands and more on the luck of the draw.
In regards to the FSS service, and purchasing it to find out recruits potential, how will this affect the change that I have been hearing about Schools hiring Assitant Coaches. How exactly will it work, ie: Hire Assistant Coach A, get emails back saying New York has some pretty good talent, School A then goes out and purchases that state? Wouldn't the Assistant Coach be able to tell which recruits we should sign with regards to potential? If so wouldnt the FSS service be null in void?? (shagnew13 - Hall of Famer - 4:49 PM)
The hiring of assistant coaches is way down the line so there's nothing looming that would impact recruiting.
Is it almost a requirement to use FSS to stay competitive or risk getting players that have no potential? (martin71a - All-Star - 4:52 PM)
It really depends on many factors - how many scholarships you have open (the more you have open, the more you should consider using FSS), the prestige of your school (the top schools don't need to worry about potential as much because the top recruits will all have limited upsided), your budget, how far you are into recruiting, etc. There's more strategy there than just picking a bunch of states at the outset of recruiting.
It seems to me that the pool of recruits nationwide has had a lower rating since potential was installed. Is it because recruiting is cyclical and the next batch or two will have higher ratings or is it because the ratings have to be lower in order to give the recruits a high potential to meet the same caps as before? (genericname4 - Prospect - 4:52 PM)
The initial ratings generated for recruits has not changed at all.
After the halfway mark (13 games) in Wooden D-I, I have two FR who have improved 40 points. I have pre-potential sophs who has improved 11, 12, & 18 points. While I like all those sophs, part of me things I'd have been better off waiting for the Super Freshmen. Is it going to balance out over time? (jpritchard - Hall of Famer - 4:56 PM)
Sure, your freshman will slow as they mature and your sophomores will continue to chug away at a consistent clip. You also only have to worry about reaching 100 with your pre-potential players so you can be more focused on how you improve them whereas your potential players will likely be more well-balanced.
the only issue i would like addressed is the cost of future stars as it relates to DIII...the budget just isnt big enough, seems most of the money goes to scout DI and DII players that you have no shot at anyway (421lateagain - Pro - 4:59 PM)
Couple of points there - you may have a shot at players listed at DII and if you wait, the service becomes significantly more affordable after signings have begun. The less unsigned players there are, the cheaper it becomes.
If I have a player with 10 Spd and his potential is High, is there anyway to know if his peak rating is 99 or 50? (mbalding - Hall of Famer - 4:59 PM)
No, but you'll get a good sense based on how quickly he improves his freshman year.
do international players have potential like normal players, or are they created without potential because you won't be to scout them? (coach_billyg - Hall of Famer - 5:01 PM)
They have potential and you can learn that through scouting trips.
As far as searching goes for recruits, will potential ever be a category in the FSS search criteria? For example: Pereimeter = High. (cardscoach - Hall of Famer - 5:01 PM)
That's something we're looking at adding but a decision has not been made yet. In the meantime, if you search with the view set to "ratings", you can see everyone's ratings, color-coded, which is a HUGE time-saver.
Any idea on the next big change to HD? (tlfisch - Hall of Famer - 5:02 PM)
Yes, in-season tournaments ala the Great Alaskan Shootout, Maui Invitational, etc.
As always, thanks for taking the time to post your questions.