Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 9:35:00 PM (view original):
The results like a low ERA(you know, not allowing earned runs) and wins(you know, the actual object of the game)?

Or results like not walking batters(a good thing but pitchers can walk batters and still win), striking out batters(another good thing but you don't get runs for strikeouts) or not allowing homers(also good but one homer will result in less runs than 2 strikeouts followed by three straight doubles)?

If wins are the point, why not just stop there and disregard ERA?

Because limiting runs is a good way to get wins and limiting runs is kinda what a pitcher is supposed to do.

So while winning is the point, a more exact measurement exists to use to evaluate the pitcher's performance?

Yes, please see the box score posted above.

Lohse recorded 22 outs, 19 via groundout/flyout while giving up 2 hits and one run.     It's pretty ******* exact that he pitched a good game, right?

That's a lot of balls put in play which, I've been led to believe, involves a lot of luck.  The ratio of baserunners to outs might just be an anomoly, and should be disregarded.

I have no doubt that at least one person believes that.   I'll refer to the ol' saying of "The cream always rises to the top".

Lohse has proven, over the course of his career, to be a quite average pitcher.   So, in this particular game, he might have recorded 19 outs via lasers hit right at someone.    However, if history holds true, some of those 19 outs will become hits and Lohse will produce a line that's in line with his career numbers.  Some of those hits may be of the blooper variety where Lohse threw a perfect pitch, even mediocre pitchers are capable of it, and the batter simply stuck his bat out. 

For me, it's much easier to believe that things will always "even out" than for me to disregard, in this case, 86% of the game. 

FWIW, Lohse has an ERA of 2.85 and a FIP of 3.59.  BABIP of .268, career is .300.

Breaking news: Jeter is old today.

Lohse has had his two best seasons in STL and is having another.    Could be park, defense, health or maybe even maturity and learning how to pitch. 

I don't think he's been pitching better because he's been lucky.   In what's sure to confound the FIP savants, his K, BB, HRA rates have remained pretty much in line with his career numbers.   But his hits allowed rate is down. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/26/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
I don't think he's been pitching better because he's been lucky.   In what's sure to confound the FIP savants, his K, BB, HRA rates have remained pretty much in line with his career numbers.   But his hits allowed rate is down. 

How can that be?

Honestly, I'd probably argue is he a little lucky.  His BABIP is actually pretty low, boarderline unsustianable.  His FIP last year wasn't very far off what his ERA was.  His BBs and HRs have actually dropped a decent amount, and while he's definitely a batter pitcher than he once was, I would guess his ERA rises to the mid 3s by the end of the year.

But again, I'll use a compliation of stats, to determine how good a player is, rather than just one stat that ignores the vast majority of plays that take place.

I looked at all two full "good" seasons and this partial season.   K9, 5.4, 5.3, 5.1 with career of 5.6.  So that's actually decreasing.   BB9 of 2.2. 2.0. 1.4 with career of 2.6.   Improving but obviously with low K9 and BB9, more balls are in play.    HR9 all three seasons with career of 1.1.  That's an improvement of 6 homers a year over 180 innings.    All this tells me he's locating the ball better.    Less walks(more balls in strike zone), less strikeouts(pitching to contact?) and less homers(less pitches in the heart of the plate). 

And, no, I don't buy 500 lucky innings and 1350 unlucky ones.    Something changed for him in STL, when healthy, and I'm not buying park/defense as the reason he's been a different pitcher.

Im saying lucky this year, not last year.  FIP was mostly in line with ERA.